1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.20.1 - Protein meal projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.20.1Protein meal projections: Production and trade
A.20.1Protein meal projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
326 717
 
400 370
 
4.24
 
1.56
 
85 224
 
101 994
 
3.29
 
1.54
 
87 419
 
101 994
 
3.66
 
1.54
 
NORTH AMERICA
53 140
 
62 631
 
2.57
 
1.39
 
4 643
 
5 297
 
6.77
 
1.93
 
15 637
 
19 255
 
5.15
 
1.73
 
Canada
6 508
 
7 157
 
7.14
 
0.73
 
792
 
728
 
-4.69
 
-0.23
 
4 653
 
5 094
 
10.40
 
0.66
 
United States
46 633
 
55 474
 
2.06
 
1.47
 
3 851
 
4 569
 
11.46
 
2.32
 
10 985
 
14 161
 
3.56
 
2.16
 
LATIN AMERICA
80 105
 
97 724
 
3.68
 
1.61
 
9 318
 
11 943
 
3.72
 
2.38
 
51 698
 
60 833
 
4.12
 
1.67
 
Argentina
35 302
 
42 496
 
3.67
 
1.80
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
31 475
 
38 189
 
4.24
 
1.91
 
Brazil
33 353
 
41 300
 
3.02
 
1.42
 
5
 
5
 
-32.13
 
0.00
 
15 705
 
18 182
 
2.51
 
1.52
 
Chile
353
 
401
 
7.57
 
0.79
 
1 131
 
1 445
 
4.31
 
2.70
 
1
 
1
 
-27.58
 
-0.24
 
Colombia
844
 
1 226
 
6.84
 
2.73
 
1 335
 
1 827
 
11.26
 
2.73
 
113
 
69
 
7.40
 
-2.65
 
Mexico
4 333
 
5 292
 
2.47
 
1.45
 
2 175
 
2 821
 
5.13
 
2.63
 
20
 
20
 
4.41
 
0.00
 
Paraguay
3 213
 
3 938
 
12.37
 
1.96
 
2
 
2
 
-5.18
 
-0.05
 
2 559
 
2 928
 
17.05
 
1.91
 
EUROPE
44 046
 
48 468
 
3.98
 
1.10
 
27 961
 
27 038
 
-0.09
 
-0.79
 
7 534
 
9 598
 
7.62
 
3.39
 
European Union
29 210
 
29 586
 
2.02
 
0.35
 
26 198
 
24 919
 
-0.14
 
-0.90
 
1 063
 
871
 
4.40
 
-2.86
 
Russia
7 600
 
8 760
 
9.21
 
1.10
 
399
 
397
 
-4.22
 
-0.57
 
1 536
 
1 905
 
7.61
 
2.52
 
Ukraine
6 555
 
9 550
 
9.96
 
3.93
 
37
 
46
 
-10.78
 
-1.36
 
4 590
 
6 583
 
9.27
 
5.37
 
AFRICA
7 855
 
10 420
 
5.18
 
1.79
 
6 150
 
8 520
 
7.66
 
3.97
 
493
 
285
 
-0.81
 
-4.71
 
Egypt
1 519
 
2 078
 
1.46
 
1.53
 
1 751
 
2 384
 
17.04
 
5.14
 
5
 
5
 
12.37
 
-0.49
 
Ethiopia
99
 
129
 
13.42
 
2.53
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Nigeria
922
 
1 047
 
1.41
 
1.28
 
353
 
526
 
32.88
 
2.31
 
179
 
132
 
6.22
 
-2.26
 
South Africa
1 269
 
1 783
 
10.96
 
2.93
 
933
 
1 075
 
-2.14
 
1.85
 
23
 
22
 
-16.55
 
-0.57
 
ASIA
140 525
 
179 636
 
5.33
 
1.69
 
34 202
 
45 382
 
5.04
 
2.41
 
11 957
 
11 924
 
-0.96
 
-0.41
 
China 1
87 689
 
111 479
 
7.10
 
1.71
 
1 449
 
2 389
 
-0.43
 
1.60
 
1 475
 
1 575
 
3.41
 
4.03
 
India
16 113
 
21 755
 
-0.42
 
2.25
 
314
 
405
 
25.41
 
0.47
 
1 623
 
1 970
 
-13.80
 
-1.13
 
Indonesia
6 848
 
8 313
 
5.75
 
1.60
 
4 397
 
4 971
 
6.71
 
1.09
 
4 433
 
4 187
 
6.06
 
-1.08
 
Iran
1 863
 
2 320
 
10.34
 
1.07
 
1 667
 
2 608
 
0.73
 
3.89
 
40
 
44
 
-14.51
 
-1.41
 
Japan
3 570
 
3 467
 
-0.40
 
-0.41
 
1 869
 
1 782
 
-1.49
 
-0.78
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
334
 
448
 
2.99
 
2.26
 
5
 
5
 
-2.53
 
0.25
 
92
 
118
 
-6.75
 
1.78
 
Korea
890
 
915
 
2.01
 
0.43
 
3 221
 
3 324
 
0.09
 
0.39
 
83
 
80
 
14.53
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
3 223
 
4 151
 
1.51
 
1.43
 
1 373
 
1 450
 
4.95
 
-0.01
 
2 548
 
2 725
 
1.44
 
0.01
 
Pakistan
3 816
 
5 283
 
4.32
 
1.75
 
634
 
2 405
 
4.98
 
13.33
 
286
 
62
 
9.22
 
-11.81
 
Philippines
925
 
1 803
 
-0.38
 
3.76
 
2 906
 
3 467
 
8.21
 
1.65
 
365
 
334
 
-3.22
 
-1.62
 
Saudi Arabia
475
 
669
 
122.77
 
1.09
 
1 080
 
1 424
 
11.99
 
2.72
 
57
 
43
 
31.20
 
-2.64
 
Thailand
2 675
 
3 463
 
7.12
 
1.22
 
3 179
 
4 281
 
1.89
 
2.77
 
9
 
12
 
2.45
 
-0.26
 
Turkey
3 696
 
4 763
 
6.89
 
1.69
 
2 088
 
2 978
 
11.78
 
2.29
 
126
 
89
 
18.13
 
-1.58
 
Viet Nam
1 530
 
1 885
 
23.27
 
1.65
 
5 628
 
9 072
 
9.53
 
4.22
 
77
 
42
 
32.37
 
-3.71
 
OCEANIA
1 046
 
1 492
 
2.98
 
4.12
 
2 950
 
3 814
 
8.12
 
2.12
 
99
 
98
 
0.50
 
0.97
 
Australia
902
 
1 321
 
3.26
 
4.49
 
787
 
918
 
3.98
 
0.30
 
28
 
29
 
0.75
 
0.00
 
New Zealand
8
 
8
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
2 152
 
2 886
 
10.16
 
2.79
 
10
 
0
 
21.04
 
..
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
104 601
 
119 572
 
3.05
 
1.26
 
39 048
 
39 958
 
1.01
 
-0.07
 
23 344
 
29 032
 
5.71
 
2.25
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
222 116
 
280 798
 
4.85
 
1.69
 
46 176
 
62 036
 
5.59
 
2.72
 
64 075
 
72 962
 
3.00
 
1.27
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
3 807
 
5 432
 
7.36
 
2.06
 
758
 
959
 
9.61
 
2.98
 
219
 
93
 
-0.17
 
-7.80
 
OECD 2
96 471
 
108 764
 
2.42
 
1.06
 
45 165
 
47 418
 
1.63
 
0.23
 
17 156
 
20 407
 
5.08
 
1.39
 
BRICS
146 024
 
185 076
 
5.15
 
1.69
 
3 100
 
4 272
 
-1.10
 
1.32
 
20 361
 
23 654
 
0.32
 
1.49
 
..
Not available
Note: Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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