1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.27.1 - Pigmeat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.27.1Pigmeat projections: Production and trade
A.27.1Pigmeat projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
PRODUCTION (kt cwe) 3
Growth (%) 4
IMPORTS (kt cwe) 5
Growth (%) 4
EXPORTS (kt cwe) 5
Growth (%) 4
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
117 547
 
130 930
 
1.67
 
0.91
 
7 422
 
8 133
 
3.32
 
0.73
 
7 584
 
8 185
 
3.09
 
0.71
 
NORTH AMERICA
13 256
 
15 111
 
1.11
 
0.79
 
717
 
788
 
3.36
 
1.36
 
3 708
 
4 230
 
2.15
 
1.04
 
Canada
2 035
 
2 159
 
0.08
 
0.48
 
215
 
290
 
1.89
 
2.06
 
1 308
 
1 481
 
1.71
 
0.89
 
United States
11 221
 
12 951
 
1.31
 
0.85
 
502
 
498
 
4.07
 
0.97
 
2 400
 
2 749
 
2.41
 
1.12
 
LATIN AMERICA
7 789
 
9 629
 
2.48
 
1.77
 
1 258
 
1 564
 
8.19
 
1.43
 
947
 
1 048
 
2.56
 
0.42
 
Argentina
518
 
696
 
9.23
 
1.88
 
29
 
36
 
-8.68
 
2.58
 
5
 
2
 
-2.67
 
1.77
 
Brazil
3 710
 
4 541
 
2.31
 
1.78
 
19
 
11
 
10.33
 
-6.84
 
641
 
720
 
1.60
 
0.43
 
Chile
514
 
580
 
-0.09
 
1.46
 
71
 
102
 
38.06
 
0.56
 
168
 
157
 
2.57
 
-0.55
 
Colombia
340
 
436
 
8.90
 
1.74
 
71
 
114
 
30.74
 
3.89
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Mexico
1 324
 
1 715
 
1.91
 
1.95
 
763
 
870
 
7.96
 
0.63
 
109
 
146
 
9.04
 
1.84
 
Paraguay
178
 
219
 
2.61
 
1.91
 
2
 
2
 
10.82
 
0.53
 
3
 
3
 
22.90
 
-1.04
 
EUROPE
28 829
 
29 316
 
1.07
 
0.18
 
500
 
445
 
-11.73
 
-1.41
 
2 652
 
2 629
 
5.02
 
0.41
 
European Union
23 583
 
23 298
 
0.41
 
-0.04
 
12
 
35
 
-15.28
 
8.40
 
2 530
 
2 488
 
4.98
 
0.47
 
Russia
3 346
 
3 955
 
6.38
 
1.22
 
369
 
276
 
-11.35
 
-3.45
 
38
 
60
 
118.84
 
4.03
 
Ukraine
713
 
773
 
2.76
 
1.39
 
5
 
5
 
-38.24
 
4.19
 
13
 
6
 
46.09
 
-9.68
 
AFRICA
1 373
 
1 654
 
2.55
 
1.62
 
281
 
441
 
5.76
 
5.82
 
30
 
28
 
18.28
 
-0.78
 
Egypt
1
 
0
 
-2.64
 
-2.45
 
1
 
1
 
14.16
 
2.89
 
1
 
0
 
29.94
 
-2.81
 
Ethiopia
2
 
3
 
1.69
 
2.56
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
13.11
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Nigeria
255
 
302
 
1.78
 
1.71
 
1
 
0
 
6.11
 
0.60
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
South Africa
253
 
325
 
-0.75
 
1.95
 
35
 
31
 
0.44
 
0.71
 
26
 
25
 
30.69
 
-0.71
 
ASIA
65 765
 
74 566
 
1.94
 
1.10
 
4 262
 
4 461
 
5.83
 
0.15
 
206
 
194
 
0.84
 
-0.58
 
China 1
53 068
 
59 429
 
1.94
 
0.98
 
1 380
 
1 204
 
23.05
 
-1.99
 
110
 
111
 
-1.58
 
0.31
 
India
357
 
386
 
-0.79
 
0.65
 
1
 
1
 
-6.72
 
4.38
 
0
 
0
 
-26.21
 
..
 
Indonesia
799
 
971
 
2.30
 
1.83
 
6
 
7
 
26.93
 
3.59
 
0
 
0
 
-8.65
 
-2.19
 
Iran
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
4
 
5
 
26.36
 
0.00
 
4
 
5
 
31.88
 
0.00
 
Japan
1 271
 
1 266
 
-0.08
 
-0.04
 
1 233
 
1 216
 
1.69
 
-0.42
 
3
 
4
 
10.67
 
0.53
 
Kazakhstan
93
 
83
 
-11.05
 
-0.86
 
26
 
38
 
1.40
 
4.77
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Korea
1 263
 
1 313
 
3.03
 
0.40
 
626
 
674
 
4.92
 
0.70
 
3
 
2
 
-4.04
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
218
 
229
 
0.51
 
0.45
 
28
 
43
 
16.99
 
3.25
 
5
 
5
 
3.80
 
-1.37
 
Pakistan
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Philippines
1 863
 
2 346
 
1.97
 
1.78
 
112
 
289
 
9.48
 
9.32
 
3
 
2
 
2.45
 
-1.35
 
Saudi Arabia
2
 
5
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
6
 
5
 
-4.82
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Thailand
1 065
 
1 188
 
1.38
 
1.11
 
2
 
2
 
24.26
 
0.27
 
28
 
26
 
7.61
 
1.10
 
Turkey
17
 
19
 
30.44
 
1.04
 
0
 
0
 
5.25
 
-0.25
 
9
 
11
 
20.09
 
0.25
 
Viet Nam
3 633
 
4 937
 
3.01
 
2.82
 
71
 
102
 
9.26
 
8.68
 
31
 
20
 
3.70
 
-5.99
 
OCEANIA
535
 
655
 
1.59
 
1.43
 
403
 
434
 
3.35
 
1.85
 
41
 
56
 
-2.80
 
2.22
 
Australia
396
 
484
 
2.30
 
1.23
 
320
 
351
 
2.71
 
2.39
 
41
 
55
 
-2.91
 
2.35
 
New Zealand
46
 
67
 
-0.92
 
3.49
 
60
 
53
 
6.39
 
-1.26
 
0
 
0
 
11.76
 
-11.08
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
44 251
 
46 770
 
1.01
 
0.39
 
2 942
 
2 970
 
-1.64
 
0.22
 
6 431
 
6 944
 
3.26
 
0.80
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
73 296
 
84 160
 
2.08
 
1.20
 
4 480
 
5 163
 
8.10
 
1.04
 
1 153
 
1 241
 
2.24
 
0.25
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
1 790
 
2 203
 
5.40
 
1.83
 
159
 
289
 
4.21
 
7.38
 
1
 
1
 
-1.56
 
-0.57
 
OECD 2
42 062
 
44 271
 
0.74
 
0.37
 
3 817
 
4 106
 
3.78
 
0.61
 
6 572
 
7 096
 
3.23
 
0.82
 
BRICS
60 734
 
68 636
 
2.14
 
1.05
 
1 803
 
1 523
 
5.15
 
-2.27
 
814
 
916
 
2.20
 
0.58
 
..
Not available
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 September New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Gross indigenous production.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
5.
Excludes trade of live animals.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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