1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.27.2 - Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.27.2Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food
A.27.2Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food
  Calendar year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt cwe)
Growth (%) 3
FOOD (kg rwe/cap) 4
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
117 354
 
130 699
 
1.66
 
0.90
 
12.3
 
12.2
 
0.46
 
-0.07
 
NORTH AMERICA
10 264
 
11 664
 
0.92
 
0.76
 
22.3
 
23.5
 
0.15
 
0.05
 
Canada
786
 
795
 
-0.19
 
0.08
 
16.9
 
15.6
 
-1.21
 
-0.74
 
United States
9 478
 
10 869
 
1.02
 
0.81
 
22.9
 
24.4
 
0.28
 
0.11
 
LATIN AMERICA
8 105
 
10 149
 
3.20
 
1.86
 
9.9
 
11.3
 
2.04
 
1.00
 
Argentina
542
 
729
 
7.83
 
1.91
 
9.6
 
11.8
 
6.73
 
1.05
 
Brazil
3 087
 
3 831
 
2.46
 
2.01
 
11.6
 
13.4
 
1.54
 
1.40
 
Chile
417
 
524
 
1.22
 
1.97
 
18.2
 
21.2
 
0.33
 
1.29
 
Colombia
410
 
551
 
11.10
 
2.14
 
6.6
 
8.2
 
10.02
 
1.49
 
Mexico
1 985
 
2 446
 
3.52
 
1.46
 
12.1
 
13.3
 
2.07
 
0.39
 
Paraguay
178
 
219
 
2.51
 
1.93
 
20.6
 
22.4
 
1.16
 
0.80
 
EUROPE
26 687
 
27 132
 
0.23
 
0.12
 
28.0
 
28.5
 
0.12
 
0.14
 
European Union
21 054
 
20 826
 
-0.01
 
-0.09
 
32.3
 
31.7
 
-0.18
 
-0.15
 
Russia
3 678
 
4 173
 
1.67
 
0.79
 
19.9
 
22.9
 
1.59
 
0.95
 
Ukraine
705
 
772
 
-1.15
 
1.59
 
12.4
 
14.3
 
-0.66
 
2.13
 
AFRICA
1 624
 
2 067
 
2.88
 
2.42
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.26
 
0.03
 
Egypt
1
 
1
 
-0.40
 
2.85
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
Ethiopia
2
 
3
 
1.78
 
3.30
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
Nigeria
257
 
303
 
1.84
 
1.70
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
-0.84
 
-0.81
 
South Africa
262
 
330
 
-1.84
 
2.07
 
3.6
 
4.1
 
-3.14
 
1.03
 
ASIA
69 773
 
78 654
 
2.15
 
1.04
 
12.2
 
12.6
 
1.09
 
0.30
 
China 1
54 305
 
60 403
 
2.24
 
0.92
 
30.2
 
32.7
 
1.70
 
0.72
 
India
358
 
388
 
-0.74
 
0.67
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
-1.96
 
-0.30
 
Indonesia
788
 
968
 
2.49
 
1.94
 
2.4
 
2.6
 
1.23
 
1.02
 
Iran
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
Japan
2 500
 
2 426
 
0.75
 
-0.47
 
15.3
 
15.4
 
0.84
 
-0.13
 
Kazakhstan
119
 
121
 
-9.31
 
0.62
 
5.1
 
4.7
 
-10.65
 
-0.25
 
Korea
1 891
 
1 985
 
3.22
 
0.50
 
29.0
 
29.5
 
2.80
 
0.23
 
Malaysia
241
 
268
 
1.57
 
0.89
 
6.0
 
5.8
 
-0.18
 
-0.33
 
Pakistan
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
Philippines
1 972
 
2 633
 
2.29
 
2.36
 
14.9
 
17.0
 
0.64
 
0.94
 
Saudi Arabia
8
 
10
 
0.84
 
0.00
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
-1.79
 
-1.43
 
Thailand
915
 
1 044
 
0.78
 
1.15
 
10.4
 
11.7
 
0.36
 
1.07
 
Turkey
8
 
9
 
58.73
 
2.07
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
..
 
..
 
Viet Nam
3 673
 
5 019
 
3.15
 
2.97
 
30.3
 
37.5
 
2.03
 
2.08
 
OCEANIA
900
 
1 033
 
2.57
 
1.56
 
17.9
 
17.8
 
0.98
 
0.31
 
Australia
678
 
780
 
2.85
 
1.66
 
21.9
 
22.2
 
1.33
 
0.53
 
New Zealand
105
 
120
 
2.64
 
1.16
 
17.6
 
18.3
 
1.55
 
0.35
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
40 773
 
42 739
 
0.43
 
0.30
 
22.6
 
22.9
 
0.01
 
0.02
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
76 581
 
87 960
 
2.37
 
1.21
 
9.9
 
10.0
 
0.98
 
0.08
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
1 957
 
2 500
 
5.34
 
2.33
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
2.88
 
0.07
 
OECD 2
39 307
 
41 211
 
0.65
 
0.30
 
23.2
 
23.2
 
0.08
 
-0.09
 
BRICS
61 690
 
69 124
 
2.18
 
0.97
 
15.3
 
16.1
 
1.32
 
0.41
 
..
Not available
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
4.
Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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