1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.15.1 - Other coarse grain projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.15.1Other coarse grain projections: Production and trade
A.15.1Other coarse grain projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
297 420
 
326 887
 
-0.01
 
1.12
 
41 452
 
48 659
 
6.60
 
1.96
 
45 761
 
49 112
 
4.43
 
1.94
 
NORTH AMERICA
29 414
 
27 715
 
-0.21
 
0.11
 
1 800
 
1 773
 
-0.52
 
-0.17
 
11 032
 
10 992
 
4.30
 
0.45
 
Canada
12 227
 
11 469
 
-1.47
 
-0.85
 
145
 
127
 
14.39
 
-0.26
 
4 461
 
3 854
 
0.41
 
-2.55
 
United States
17 188
 
16 247
 
0.76
 
0.86
 
1 655
 
1 646
 
-1.24
 
-0.16
 
6 572
 
7 137
 
7.94
 
2.57
 
LATIN AMERICA
18 444
 
24 662
 
0.99
 
2.74
 
2 868
 
3 222
 
-5.63
 
0.92
 
3 099
 
4 920
 
1.34
 
8.51
 
Argentina
7 297
 
9 972
 
5.78
 
4.13
 
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
2 924
 
4 740
 
1.46
 
9.16
 
Brazil
2 769
 
3 422
 
2.28
 
1.43
 
599
 
369
 
4.41
 
-2.50
 
19
 
17
 
12.17
 
1.33
 
Chile
580
 
871
 
3.48
 
1.59
 
177
 
85
 
-16.35
 
-0.01
 
46
 
117
 
-1.38
 
0.01
 
Colombia
21
 
24
 
-21.33
 
1.52
 
1 049
 
1 297
 
10.18
 
1.78
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Mexico
5 891
 
8 537
 
-2.33
 
2.42
 
801
 
947
 
-15.95
 
-0.68
 
1
 
0
 
45.40
 
..
 
Paraguay
31
 
38
 
-1.00
 
1.90
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
2
 
1
 
-1.57
 
-6.48
 
EUROPE
136 110
 
141 016
 
-0.39
 
0.47
 
1 347
 
1 619
 
-0.36
 
2.85
 
19 569
 
21 066
 
4.73
 
1.48
 
European Union
92 281
 
96 523
 
-0.17
 
0.35
 
801
 
830
 
2.57
 
4.04
 
10 327
 
10 498
 
8.20
 
1.54
 
Russia
26 792
 
25 919
 
0.62
 
0.38
 
58
 
163
 
-11.28
 
9.66
 
4 147
 
4 780
 
6.26
 
0.87
 
Ukraine
10 506
 
11 517
 
-2.90
 
1.32
 
17
 
15
 
-2.28
 
-0.06
 
5 012
 
5 669
 
0.17
 
1.86
 
AFRICA
52 403
 
67 447
 
0.61
 
2.37
 
4 248
 
4 873
 
7.84
 
1.64
 
2 643
 
1 805
 
10.05
 
-0.99
 
Egypt
899
 
902
 
-1.91
 
1.82
 
71
 
14
 
7.77
 
-22.65
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Ethiopia
12 812
 
17 905
 
6.43
 
3.65
 
10
 
0
 
-15.18
 
..
 
1 500
 
1 005
 
24.43
 
8.01
 
Nigeria
8 306
 
9 797
 
-6.15
 
1.52
 
20
 
18
 
0.00
 
-0.23
 
100
 
122
 
-3.11
 
0.56
 
South Africa
504
 
541
 
-0.18
 
1.42
 
181
 
200
 
7.31
 
-1.44
 
21
 
26
 
-7.27
 
1.23
 
ASIA
47 351
 
52 472
 
0.08
 
1.33
 
31 083
 
37 038
 
9.60
 
2.17
 
1 384
 
2 611
 
3.29
 
4.18
 
China 1
8 573
 
7 380
 
-1.46
 
1.01
 
13 289
 
14 564
 
34.52
 
2.82
 
72
 
92
 
-11.20
 
2.12
 
India
17 584
 
20 089
 
-1.76
 
1.26
 
8
 
4
 
8.77
 
-1.11
 
467
 
1 378
 
7.17
 
8.24
 
Indonesia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
90
 
92
 
5.55
 
0.69
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Iran
3 087
 
3 471
 
4.89
 
1.23
 
1 854
 
3 521
 
9.05
 
2.62
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Japan
218
 
211
 
0.07
 
-0.42
 
2 017
 
1 738
 
-5.83
 
-1.62
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
3 530
 
4 093
 
6.43
 
1.36
 
10
 
10
 
-12.22
 
0.00
 
829
 
1 122
 
9.97
 
0.89
 
Korea
92
 
123
 
-5.34
 
1.34
 
114
 
126
 
3.47
 
0.76
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Malaysia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Pakistan
615
 
720
 
1.97
 
1.64
 
204
 
303
 
65.80
 
3.50
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Philippines
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
37
 
50
 
1.17
 
2.90
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Saudi Arabia
212
 
307
 
-0.45
 
1.85
 
9 676
 
12 216
 
3.72
 
2.18
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Thailand
166
 
192
 
-0.16
 
1.44
 
24
 
19
 
0.00
 
-3.67
 
2
 
2
 
-0.19
 
0.72
 
Turkey
7 969
 
9 548
 
0.73
 
1.62
 
251
 
459
 
14.01
 
2.18
 
8
 
11
 
-14.85
 
-0.40
 
Viet Nam
2
 
2
 
3.44
 
1.66
 
70
 
81
 
5.61
 
1.36
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
OCEANIA
13 698
 
13 574
 
1.40
 
0.78
 
106
 
134
 
6.34
 
2.13
 
8 034
 
7 718
 
4.96
 
2.46
 
Australia
13 297
 
13 241
 
1.47
 
0.81
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
8 034
 
7 718
 
4.96
 
2.46
 
New Zealand
397
 
328
 
-1.03
 
-0.47
 
20
 
26
 
49.07
 
0.52
 
0
 
0
 
-2.85
 
0.00
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
186 007
 
190 115
 
-0.05
 
0.47
 
6 261
 
6 318
 
-2.12
 
0.27
 
39 485
 
40 925
 
4.72
 
1.35
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
111 413
 
136 771
 
0.18
 
2.08
 
35 191
 
42 340
 
9.06
 
2.24
 
6 276
 
8 187
 
3.45
 
5.53
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
19 680
 
25 195
 
1.59
 
2.12
 
365
 
495
 
1.78
 
3.01
 
801
 
463
 
1.10
 
-7.28
 
OECD 2
151 171
 
158 227
 
-0.09
 
0.53
 
7 063
 
7 307
 
-4.57
 
0.14
 
29 448
 
29 337
 
5.41
 
1.34
 
BRICS
56 223
 
57 350
 
-0.53
 
0.83
 
14 135
 
15 300
 
28.88
 
2.63
 
4 726
 
6 294
 
5.59
 
2.11
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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