1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.15.2 - Other coarse grain projections: Consumption, feed, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.15.2Other coarse grain projections: Consumption, feed, food
A.15.2Other coarse grain projections: Consumption, feed, food
  Marketing year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt)
Growth (%) 3
FEED (kt)
Growth (%) 3
FOOD (kg/cap)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
294 307
 
325 909
 
0.21
 
1.14
 
164 872
 
182 370
 
0.05
 
0.97
 
10.3
 
11.0
 
-0.09
 
0.70
 
NORTH AMERICA
20 189
 
18 422
 
-2.08
 
-0.05
 
10 787
 
10 273
 
-4.63
 
-0.21
 
3.6
 
3.1
 
0.18
 
-0.92
 
Canada
7 709
 
7 751
 
-2.37
 
-0.17
 
6 774
 
6 960
 
-2.81
 
-0.15
 
9.6
 
6.4
 
2.85
 
-1.74
 
United States
12 480
 
10 671
 
-1.91
 
0.03
 
4 013
 
3 312
 
-7.18
 
-0.32
 
2.9
 
2.7
 
-0.73
 
-0.70
 
LATIN AMERICA
18 263
 
22 902
 
0.12
 
1.55
 
13 104
 
16 872
 
-1.16
 
1.86
 
4.0
 
4.2
 
-0.03
 
0.00
 
Argentina
4 441
 
5 214
 
9.64
 
0.96
 
2 822
 
3 153
 
8.68
 
1.01
 
16.4
 
18.5
 
1.34
 
-0.21
 
Brazil
3 449
 
3 764
 
3.37
 
1.13
 
2 171
 
2 349
 
2.62
 
1.75
 
2.8
 
2.6
 
0.29
 
0.14
 
Chile
700
 
831
 
-4.89
 
1.70
 
461
 
571
 
-7.27
 
2.03
 
3.6
 
4.2
 
2.13
 
1.00
 
Colombia
1 073
 
1 321
 
7.31
 
1.77
 
720
 
925
 
11.54
 
2.30
 
1.5
 
1.4
 
-0.98
 
-0.59
 
Mexico
6 692
 
9 480
 
-4.23
 
2.06
 
5 975
 
8 612
 
-4.72
 
2.12
 
5.6
 
6.0
 
-0.15
 
0.38
 
Paraguay
29
 
37
 
-0.96
 
2.18
 
22
 
27
 
-2.68
 
2.01
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
EUROPE
117 867
 
121 425
 
-1.17
 
0.39
 
87 388
 
87 301
 
-0.78
 
0.09
 
11.2
 
10.9
 
-0.96
 
-0.04
 
European Union
83 942
 
86 895
 
-0.65
 
0.38
 
63 620
 
62 588
 
-0.48
 
-0.10
 
9.4
 
9.7
 
0.09
 
0.28
 
Russia
21 722
 
21 170
 
-1.31
 
0.01
 
15 039
 
14 932
 
-0.32
 
0.10
 
13.7
 
11.8
 
-2.71
 
-0.56
 
Ukraine
5 540
 
5 820
 
-5.50
 
1.20
 
3 691
 
3 965
 
-5.02
 
1.65
 
17.8
 
16.3
 
-2.66
 
-0.49
 
AFRICA
54 410
 
70 326
 
0.83
 
2.41
 
7 281
 
8 882
 
-4.29
 
2.32
 
32.6
 
33.8
 
0.09
 
0.29
 
Egypt
970
 
915
 
-1.43
 
-0.28
 
615
 
533
 
-2.38
 
-0.96
 
3.1
 
2.7
 
-1.56
 
-1.11
 
Ethiopia
11 308
 
16 827
 
5.52
 
3.40
 
600
 
1 033
 
10.31
 
5.96
 
91.6
 
109.7
 
2.48
 
1.25
 
Nigeria
8 308
 
9 678
 
-7.20
 
1.59
 
598
 
480
 
-23.69
 
2.21
 
39.0
 
35.2
 
-1.78
 
-0.90
 
South Africa
670
 
714
 
2.18
 
0.42
 
35
 
42
 
-5.41
 
2.30
 
4.0
 
3.6
 
-1.85
 
-1.01
 
ASIA
77 505
 
86 846
 
2.99
 
1.60
 
42 319
 
54 868
 
5.78
 
2.55
 
5.5
 
5.2
 
-1.55
 
-0.22
 
China 1
21 658
 
21 907
 
10.47
 
2.18
 
9 879
 
14 853
 
32.35
 
4.81
 
3.4
 
3.1
 
0.71
 
-0.67
 
India
17 603
 
18 712
 
-1.79
 
0.89
 
503
 
718
 
4.07
 
3.89
 
12.3
 
11.5
 
-2.62
 
-0.27
 
Indonesia
90
 
92
 
5.55
 
0.69
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
4.25
 
-0.21
 
Iran
4 907
 
6 981
 
5.49
 
1.88
 
4 730
 
6 768
 
5.74
 
1.88
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
-1.44
 
-0.64
 
Japan
2 227
 
1 961
 
-4.81
 
-1.48
 
1 625
 
1 381
 
-6.59
 
-1.54
 
3.6
 
3.8
 
0.73
 
0.49
 
Kazakhstan
2 508
 
2 964
 
3.95
 
1.76
 
1 632
 
1 943
 
3.79
 
2.01
 
2.6
 
2.3
 
-1.48
 
-1.04
 
Korea
206
 
248
 
-1.39
 
1.05
 
59
 
60
 
-1.42
 
-0.19
 
2.9
 
3.6
 
-1.76
 
1.19
 
Malaysia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
Pakistan
819
 
1 023
 
5.66
 
2.15
 
195
 
266
 
0.00
 
2.79
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
6.72
 
0.28
 
Philippines
37
 
50
 
1.07
 
2.90
 
29
 
39
 
2.04
 
2.84
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
Saudi Arabia
10 154
 
12 476
 
4.11
 
2.10
 
9 958
 
12 271
 
4.21
 
2.13
 
2.8
 
2.5
 
-2.70
 
-1.00
 
Thailand
188
 
209
 
-0.14
 
0.85
 
52
 
65
 
-0.44
 
2.03
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
-0.74
 
-0.17
 
Turkey
8 211
 
9 984
 
0.76
 
1.72
 
7 125
 
8 859
 
0.85
 
1.90
 
3.7
 
3.4
 
-1.21
 
-0.69
 
Viet Nam
72
 
83
 
5.48
 
1.37
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
OCEANIA
6 073
 
5 988
 
-0.51
 
-1.22
 
3 994
 
4 175
 
-0.73
 
-1.53
 
7.5
 
7.0
 
-2.81
 
-0.29
 
Australia
5 557
 
5 523
 
-0.66
 
-1.33
 
3 631
 
3 807
 
-0.92
 
-1.64
 
9.0
 
8.0
 
-4.43
 
-0.74
 
New Zealand
428
 
354
 
-0.01
 
-0.40
 
344
 
346
 
0.64
 
-0.41
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
-1.06
 
-0.80
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
152 731
 
155 264
 
-1.11
 
0.29
 
108 289
 
108 518
 
-1.11
 
0.05
 
7.6
 
7.1
 
-1.01
 
-0.34
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
141 576
 
170 645
 
1.81
 
1.97
 
56 583
 
73 852
 
2.55
 
2.51
 
11.0
 
11.8
 
0.02
 
0.79
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
19 529
 
25 200
 
2.53
 
2.42
 
922
 
1 149
 
4.66
 
2.57
 
18.6
 
19.8
 
0.26
 
0.54
 
OECD 2
130 283
 
136 150
 
-1.10
 
0.43
 
95 441
 
98 614
 
-1.41
 
0.18
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
-0.24
 
-0.01
 
BRICS
65 102
 
66 268
 
1.68
 
1.00
 
27 627
 
32 895
 
5.45
 
2.18
 
7.6
 
7.2
 
-1.78
 
-0.20
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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