1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.36 - Milk projections: Production, inventories, yield

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.36Milk projections: Production, inventories, yield
A.36Milk projections: Production, inventories, yield
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
INVENTORIES ('000 hd)
Growth (%) 3
YIELD (t/head)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
817 718
 
993 610
 
2.08
 
1.84
 
710 256
 
806 131
 
1.66
 
0.95
 
1.15
 
1.23
 
0.42
 
0.88
 
NORTH AMERICA
105 814
 
116 027
 
1.56
 
0.74
 
10 293
 
10 241
 
0.15
 
-0.11
 
10.28
 
11.33
 
1.40
 
0.85
 
Canada
9 577
 
11 241
 
1.94
 
1.16
 
947
 
944
 
-0.24
 
-0.16
 
10.11
 
11.91
 
2.19
 
1.32
 
United States
96 237
 
104 786
 
1.52
 
0.69
 
9 345
 
9 297
 
0.20
 
-0.11
 
10.30
 
11.27
 
1.33
 
0.80
 
LATIN AMERICA
75 066
 
88 822
 
0.39
 
1.67
 
50 790
 
52 252
 
1.38
 
0.24
 
1.48
 
1.70
 
-0.98
 
1.43
 
Argentina
10 308
 
11 396
 
0.09
 
1.34
 
2 306
 
2 408
 
-0.28
 
0.66
 
4.46
 
4.73
 
0.36
 
0.68
 
Brazil
28 771
 
35 884
 
0.10
 
2.18
 
25 141
 
25 572
 
1.76
 
0.21
 
1.17
 
1.40
 
-1.39
 
1.97
 
Chile
2 038
 
2 486
 
-2.95
 
1.72
 
1 262
 
1 272
 
-1.39
 
-0.04
 
1.61
 
1.95
 
-1.58
 
1.76
 
Colombia
7 000
 
8 323
 
0.67
 
1.49
 
6 662
 
7 145
 
4.66
 
0.20
 
1.05
 
1.16
 
-3.81
 
1.29
 
Mexico
12 080
 
13 105
 
1.42
 
0.71
 
2 482
 
2 630
 
0.75
 
0.51
 
4.87
 
4.98
 
0.66
 
0.20
 
Paraguay
533
 
737
 
1.92
 
2.96
 
239
 
294
 
2.59
 
1.42
 
2.23
 
2.51
 
-0.65
 
1.52
 
EUROPE
223 040
 
237 143
 
0.70
 
0.58
 
42 626
 
39 722
 
-0.71
 
-0.62
 
5.23
 
5.97
 
1.42
 
1.20
 
European Union
163 256
 
176 719
 
1.22
 
0.66
 
23 213
 
21 928
 
-0.40
 
-0.49
 
6.93
 
7.99
 
1.77
 
1.21
 
Russia
30 687
 
30 645
 
-0.74
 
0.05
 
8 305
 
7 388
 
-1.20
 
-1.05
 
3.70
 
4.15
 
0.47
 
1.11
 
Ukraine
10 443
 
11 884
 
-1.33
 
1.42
 
3 159
 
3 232
 
-2.88
 
0.42
 
3.31
 
3.68
 
1.59
 
0.99
 
AFRICA
45 772
 
56 177
 
0.95
 
2.47
 
236 765
 
273 361
 
2.00
 
1.01
 
0.19
 
0.21
 
-1.03
 
1.45
 
Egypt
5 623
 
6 710
 
-0.46
 
1.89
 
6 816
 
7 152
 
0.96
 
0.42
 
0.82
 
0.94
 
-1.41
 
1.46
 
Ethiopia
3 603
 
5 662
 
-0.11
 
4.77
 
16 078
 
23 075
 
3.72
 
3.23
 
0.22
 
0.25
 
-3.69
 
1.49
 
Nigeria
576
 
724
 
2.99
 
2.06
 
2 526
 
2 910
 
4.36
 
0.61
 
0.23
 
0.25
 
-1.32
 
1.44
 
South Africa
3 253
 
3 669
 
0.43
 
1.09
 
942
 
897
 
-0.66
 
-0.50
 
3.46
 
4.09
 
1.11
 
1.60
 
ASIA
336 890
 
460 005
 
3.89
 
2.88
 
363 177
 
423 735
 
1.85
 
1.21
 
0.93
 
1.09
 
2.00
 
1.65
 
China 1
40 767
 
49 654
 
0.09
 
1.49
 
15 200
 
14 836
 
2.70
 
-0.52
 
2.42
 
3.02
 
-2.89
 
2.00
 
India
162 595
 
244 484
 
4.79
 
3.90
 
128 371
 
172 606
 
1.25
 
2.83
 
1.27
 
1.42
 
3.49
 
1.04
 
Indonesia
1 227
 
1 576
 
0.43
 
1.81
 
14 460
 
16 319
 
3.59
 
0.46
 
0.08
 
0.10
 
-3.05
 
1.34
 
Iran
6 457
 
7 273
 
-1.23
 
1.10
 
20 294
 
21 780
 
-0.97
 
0.61
 
0.32
 
0.33
 
-0.27
 
0.49
 
Japan
7 335
 
7 508
 
-1.01
 
0.31
 
855
 
841
 
-1.73
 
-0.04
 
8.57
 
8.93
 
0.74
 
0.35
 
Kazakhstan
5 140
 
6 415
 
-0.37
 
2.13
 
4 081
 
4 463
 
5.23
 
0.58
 
1.26
 
1.44
 
-5.32
 
1.54
 
Korea
2 121
 
2 264
 
0.31
 
0.80
 
252
 
256
 
0.35
 
0.11
 
8.41
 
8.85
 
-0.05
 
0.68
 
Malaysia
86
 
118
 
2.81
 
2.45
 
174
 
210
 
2.43
 
0.96
 
0.50
 
0.56
 
0.37
 
1.48
 
Pakistan
52 900
 
70 436
 
6.53
 
2.51
 
35 300
 
41 009
 
3.73
 
0.95
 
1.50
 
1.72
 
2.70
 
1.55
 
Philippines
21
 
28
 
5.36
 
2.44
 
5
 
6
 
-0.90
 
0.52
 
3.86
 
4.83
 
6.32
 
1.91
 
Saudi Arabia
2 413
 
3 013
 
5.11
 
2.11
 
5 369
 
6 083
 
3.99
 
1.11
 
0.45
 
0.50
 
1.08
 
0.99
 
Thailand
1 080
 
1 231
 
3.63
 
0.94
 
222
 
205
 
-2.06
 
-0.80
 
4.86
 
6.02
 
5.81
 
1.76
 
Turkey
19 727
 
24 126
 
6.31
 
1.94
 
26 094
 
28 862
 
6.99
 
0.74
 
0.76
 
0.84
 
-0.64
 
1.19
 
Viet Nam
620
 
895
 
10.28
 
3.59
 
269
 
335
 
9.45
 
1.95
 
2.31
 
2.67
 
0.76
 
1.61
 
OCEANIA
31 136
 
35 437
 
2.17
 
1.36
 
6 604
 
6 820
 
0.89
 
0.22
 
4.71
 
5.20
 
1.27
 
1.13
 
Australia
9 519
 
10 402
 
-0.02
 
1.00
 
1 544
 
1 686
 
-0.72
 
0.35
 
6.17
 
6.17
 
0.70
 
0.65
 
New Zealand
21 546
 
24 967
 
3.28
 
1.51
 
5 003
 
5 087
 
1.44
 
0.20
 
4.31
 
4.91
 
1.81
 
1.31
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
393 931
 
428 494
 
1.13
 
0.76
 
80 802
 
79 949
 
0.32
 
-0.23
 
4.88
 
5.36
 
0.81
 
0.99
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
423 787
 
565 116
 
3.04
 
2.75
 
629 454
 
726 182
 
1.84
 
1.09
 
0.67
 
0.78
 
1.17
 
1.64
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
23 882
 
27 799
 
3.43
 
2.20
 
175 284
 
204 842
 
4.52
 
0.89
 
0.14
 
0.14
 
-1.04
 
1.30
 
OECD 2
350 734
 
384 900
 
1.55
 
0.81
 
72 224
 
73 924
 
2.03
 
0.14
 
4.86
 
5.21
 
-0.47
 
0.67
 
BRICS
266 073
 
364 336
 
2.64
 
2.96
 
177 959
 
221 298
 
1.30
 
2.08
 
1.50
 
1.65
 
1.32
 
0.87
 
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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