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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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Meat

Overall world meat production increased by 1.25% to 323 Mt in 2017, with moderate increases in the production of bovine and poultry meats and more modest gains in pig and sheep meat. Much of the world meat production expansion originated in the United States but other main contributors were Argentina, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation and Turkey. Meat production in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), the world’s largest meat producer, increased little overall mainly because of the lower growth in poultry meat production as several Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks affected the country. Nevertheless, China remained the second largest contributor to the 2017 increase in meat production.

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