1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.25.1 - Meat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.25.1Meat projections: Production and trade
A.25.1Meat projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
PRODUCTION (kt cwe) 3
Growth (%) 4
IMPORTS (kt cwe) 5
Growth (%) 4
EXPORTS (kt cwe) 5
Growth (%) 4
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
318 533
 
366 668
 
1.90
 
1.15
 
29 572
 
35 294
 
2.92
 
1.54
 
30 131
 
36 051
 
2.90
 
1.50
 
NORTH AMERICA
47 955
 
54 825
 
0.62
 
0.76
 
2 783
 
2 869
 
2.70
 
0.83
 
8 726
 
10 680
 
1.04
 
1.50
 
Canada
4 754
 
5 250
 
-0.28
 
0.80
 
692
 
792
 
0.37
 
1.32
 
1 913
 
2 198
 
0.68
 
0.95
 
United States
43 202
 
49 575
 
0.72
 
0.75
 
2 092
 
2 077
 
3.60
 
0.65
 
6 814
 
8 482
 
1.14
 
1.64
 
LATIN AMERICA
51 489
 
61 199
 
2.02
 
1.38
 
4 035
 
5 053
 
4.32
 
1.39
 
8 363
 
11 035
 
0.99
 
2.13
 
Argentina
5 410
 
6 825
 
1.46
 
1.66
 
47
 
49
 
-5.57
 
2.05
 
414
 
1 033
 
-5.55
 
5.88
 
Brazil
26 624
 
31 351
 
2.22
 
1.20
 
75
 
65
 
11.00
 
-1.82
 
6 320
 
8 375
 
0.96
 
2.27
 
Chile
1 468
 
1 646
 
1.06
 
1.36
 
470
 
641
 
13.29
 
1.81
 
327
 
275
 
2.77
 
-1.28
 
Colombia
2 653
 
3 152
 
3.60
 
1.45
 
157
 
265
 
14.33
 
3.19
 
17
 
4
 
-16.56
 
-18.10
 
Mexico
6 342
 
7 821
 
1.84
 
1.74
 
1 769
 
1 967
 
5.02
 
0.65
 
294
 
369
 
15.30
 
1.37
 
Paraguay
804
 
979
 
3.44
 
1.75
 
31
 
40
 
6.86
 
2.43
 
359
 
380
 
7.45
 
0.52
 
EUROPE
61 835
 
64 267
 
1.76
 
0.26
 
3 216
 
3 097
 
-6.25
 
-0.63
 
5 049
 
5 528
 
6.41
 
0.91
 
European Union
46 859
 
47 277
 
0.96
 
0.00
 
1 362
 
1 571
 
-1.23
 
0.85
 
4 247
 
4 553
 
5.27
 
0.89
 
Russia
9 966
 
11 404
 
5.99
 
0.97
 
1 171
 
799
 
-10.87
 
-3.57
 
159
 
279
 
20.78
 
4.01
 
Ukraine
2 180
 
2 399
 
2.31
 
1.28
 
225
 
250
 
-9.55
 
-0.24
 
268
 
282
 
32.10
 
-0.55
 
AFRICA
16 323
 
20 370
 
2.17
 
2.27
 
2 769
 
3 931
 
5.88
 
3.29
 
317
 
268
 
12.78
 
0.06
 
Egypt
2 207
 
2 931
 
3.33
 
2.51
 
352
 
380
 
5.59
 
2.09
 
10
 
6
 
16.10
 
-1.08
 
Ethiopia
596
 
719
 
0.10
 
2.24
 
0
 
0
 
-8.59
 
9.22
 
17
 
22
 
10.08
 
3.73
 
Nigeria
1 260
 
1 514
 
1.68
 
2.01
 
3
 
3
 
15.51
 
1.41
 
1
 
1
 
-12.83
 
-2.42
 
South Africa
3 202
 
3 802
 
3.15
 
2.08
 
600
 
777
 
9.82
 
1.31
 
185
 
159
 
34.05
 
1.32
 
ASIA
134 479
 
158 566
 
2.41
 
1.43
 
16 203
 
19 698
 
5.11
 
1.73
 
4 413
 
4 864
 
8.58
 
0.79
 
China 1
83 280
 
96 813
 
2.00
 
1.27
 
2 675
 
2 860
 
13.35
 
0.25
 
534
 
627
 
0.97
 
1.35
 
India
6 814
 
8 445
 
2.46
 
1.81
 
1
 
2
 
-11.13
 
3.85
 
1 696
 
1 740
 
12.96
 
0.02
 
Indonesia
3 362
 
4 036
 
3.91
 
1.81
 
147
 
298
 
7.72
 
4.32
 
1
 
1
 
-10.04
 
-1.21
 
Iran
2 675
 
3 245
 
1.81
 
1.87
 
122
 
204
 
-4.81
 
3.70
 
92
 
148
 
14.95
 
7.53
 
Japan
3 284
 
3 350
 
0.48
 
0.09
 
2 871
 
2 900
 
2.28
 
-0.51
 
15
 
20
 
6.06
 
2.13
 
Kazakhstan
835
 
971
 
0.22
 
1.42
 
188
 
298
 
-0.15
 
4.06
 
1
 
1
 
2.01
 
-1.41
 
Korea
2 432
 
2 586
 
3.56
 
0.63
 
1 212
 
1 376
 
5.19
 
1.13
 
32
 
10
 
-0.04
 
-2.52
 
Malaysia
1 982
 
2 272
 
4.11
 
1.28
 
339
 
460
 
6.77
 
2.91
 
178
 
187
 
5.04
 
0.33
 
Pakistan
3 236
 
4 101
 
3.66
 
2.31
 
34
 
105
 
17.40
 
9.49
 
66
 
8
 
9.89
 
-20.56
 
Philippines
3 471
 
4 397
 
2.93
 
1.95
 
480
 
887
 
8.33
 
5.85
 
11
 
10
 
-1.41
 
-0.72
 
Saudi Arabia
705
 
921
 
2.63
 
2.21
 
1 119
 
1 259
 
5.04
 
1.58
 
103
 
91
 
38.65
 
-1.46
 
Thailand
3 393
 
4 101
 
4.50
 
1.51
 
29
 
20
 
13.73
 
-1.20
 
1 037
 
1 377
 
6.62
 
2.14
 
Turkey
3 417
 
4 342
 
7.96
 
2.07
 
18
 
8
 
8.86
 
-3.03
 
422
 
444
 
18.42
 
0.88
 
Viet Nam
4 777
 
6 467
 
3.02
 
2.75
 
1 649
 
2 291
 
14.42
 
3.63
 
31
 
20
 
3.33
 
-5.93
 
OCEANIA
6 451
 
7 441
 
1.57
 
1.33
 
566
 
648
 
3.03
 
2.12
 
3 262
 
3 676
 
2.11
 
1.71
 
Australia
4 935
 
5 837
 
2.04
 
1.55
 
334
 
365
 
2.80
 
2.29
 
2 186
 
2 629
 
2.76
 
2.39
 
New Zealand
1 376
 
1 456
 
0.11
 
0.56
 
77
 
67
 
5.92
 
-1.01
 
1 073
 
1 045
 
0.82
 
0.17
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
126 243
 
137 775
 
1.32
 
0.59
 
10 485
 
10 928
 
-0.74
 
0.28
 
17 258
 
20 078
 
2.74
 
1.36
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
192 290
 
228 893
 
2.30
 
1.50
 
19 086
 
24 365
 
5.52
 
2.16
 
12 873
 
15 973
 
3.12
 
1.69
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
8 781
 
11 054
 
3.44
 
2.27
 
1 142
 
1 972
 
5.24
 
4.94
 
22
 
17
 
4.21
 
-1.94
 
OECD 2
119 532
 
130 787
 
1.08
 
0.60
 
11 142
 
12 113
 
2.89
 
0.63
 
17 342
 
20 033
 
2.60
 
1.32
 
BRICS
129 885
 
151 814
 
2.36
 
1.28
 
4 522
 
4 503
 
1.25
 
-0.42
 
8 894
 
11 180
 
3.07
 
1.86
 
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Gross indigenous production.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
5.
Excludes trade of live animals.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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