1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.25.2 - Meat projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.25.2Meat projections: Consumption, food
A.25.2Meat projections: Consumption, food
  Calendar year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt cwe)
Growth (%) 3
FOOD (kg rwe/cap) 4
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
317 785
 
365 539
 
1.89
 
1.15
 
34.3
 
35.4
 
0.76
 
0.19
 
NORTH AMERICA
42 172
 
47 298
 
0.63
 
0.60
 
94.4
 
97.7
 
-0.04
 
-0.10
 
Canada
3 136
 
3 398
 
0.16
 
0.70
 
69.5
 
69.0
 
-0.72
 
-0.08
 
United States
39 037
 
43 900
 
0.67
 
0.59
 
97.2
 
101.0
 
0.02
 
-0.10
 
LATIN AMERICA
46 723
 
54 683
 
2.38
 
1.23
 
58.9
 
62.6
 
1.35
 
0.37
 
Argentina
5 044
 
5 841
 
2.22
 
1.06
 
89.8
 
94.7
 
1.45
 
0.22
 
Brazil
20 082
 
22 724
 
2.64
 
0.82
 
76.9
 
81.3
 
1.83
 
0.21
 
Chile
1 605
 
2 006
 
3.10
 
1.94
 
71.8
 
83.2
 
2.19
 
1.26
 
Colombia
2 773
 
3 391
 
4.59
 
1.66
 
46.3
 
52.7
 
3.74
 
1.03
 
Mexico
7 601
 
9 145
 
2.21
 
1.50
 
48.6
 
51.9
 
0.88
 
0.44
 
Paraguay
477
 
639
 
1.19
 
2.60
 
53.0
 
62.2
 
-0.08
 
1.41
 
EUROPE
59 832
 
61 649
 
0.74
 
0.17
 
64.6
 
66.8
 
0.74
 
0.20
 
European Union
43 700
 
44 030
 
0.51
 
-0.04
 
68.7
 
68.9
 
0.43
 
-0.08
 
Russia
11 070
 
11 996
 
1.88
 
0.52
 
62.3
 
68.5
 
2.07
 
0.66
 
Ukraine
2 130
 
2 356
 
-1.08
 
1.37
 
39.1
 
45.9
 
-0.51
 
1.89
 
AFRICA
18 822
 
24 113
 
2.56
 
2.47
 
12.4
 
12.2
 
0.04
 
0.08
 
Egypt
2 580
 
3 331
 
3.69
 
2.45
 
21.5
 
23.2
 
1.69
 
0.87
 
Ethiopia
560
 
691
 
-0.44
 
2.32
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
-2.87
 
0.14
 
Nigeria
1 321
 
1 619
 
1.47
 
2.18
 
5.7
 
5.3
 
-1.31
 
-0.35
 
South Africa
3 684
 
4 420
 
3.35
 
1.85
 
54.4
 
58.2
 
2.10
 
0.80
 
ASIA
146 818
 
173 817
 
2.54
 
1.47
 
26.5
 
28.9
 
1.50
 
0.75
 
China 1
85 401
 
98 950
 
2.27
 
1.24
 
48.7
 
55.0
 
1.72
 
1.05
 
India
5 109
 
6 696
 
0.19
 
2.33
 
3.2
 
3.8
 
-0.50
 
1.38
 
Indonesia
3 617
 
4 488
 
3.85
 
1.98
 
11.4
 
12.8
 
2.65
 
1.08
 
Iran
2 691
 
3 294
 
1.18
 
1.82
 
28.8
 
32.2
 
0.12
 
1.05
 
Japan
6 130
 
6 189
 
1.28
 
-0.26
 
38.5
 
40.3
 
1.43
 
0.08
 
Kazakhstan
1 025
 
1 271
 
0.18
 
1.98
 
45.1
 
50.7
 
-1.09
 
1.12
 
Korea
3 629
 
3 952
 
4.00
 
0.81
 
56.6
 
59.8
 
3.62
 
0.56
 
Malaysia
2 153
 
2 554
 
4.33
 
1.63
 
58.7
 
60.8
 
2.56
 
0.39
 
Pakistan
3 198
 
4 192
 
3.64
 
2.59
 
13.0
 
14.0
 
1.62
 
0.86
 
Philippines
3 944
 
5 277
 
3.49
 
2.51
 
30.9
 
35.4
 
1.97
 
1.10
 
Saudi Arabia
1 860
 
2 240
 
3.49
 
1.90
 
49.8
 
50.7
 
0.76
 
0.45
 
Thailand
2 199
 
2 539
 
3.83
 
1.17
 
26.3
 
30.1
 
3.72
 
1.11
 
Turkey
3 091
 
3 931
 
7.14
 
2.03
 
31.7
 
36.6
 
5.06
 
1.36
 
Viet Nam
6 457
 
8 791
 
5.23
 
2.98
 
53.7
 
66.4
 
3.98
 
2.12
 
OCEANIA
3 418
 
3 980
 
1.50
 
1.12
 
71.0
 
71.9
 
0.12
 
-0.07
 
Australia
2 714
 
3 171
 
1.71
 
1.07
 
91.7
 
94.3
 
0.39
 
0.01
 
New Zealand
411
 
449
 
0.43
 
0.80
 
72.2
 
71.8
 
-0.39
 
0.01
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
119 233
 
128 308
 
0.87
 
0.44
 
68.0
 
70.8
 
0.56
 
0.17
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
198 552
 
237 232
 
2.54
 
1.55
 
26.4
 
27.9
 
1.19
 
0.43
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
9 836
 
12 994
 
3.74
 
2.69
 
9.9
 
10.3
 
1.44
 
0.42
 
OECD 2
112 806
 
122 221
 
1.02
 
0.48
 
68.5
 
71.0
 
0.53
 
0.10
 
BRICS
125 345
 
144 786
 
2.23
 
1.18
 
32.1
 
34.8
 
1.43
 
0.62
 
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 September New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
4.
Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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