1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.14.1 - Maize projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.14.1Maize projections: Production and trade
A.14.1Maize projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
1 040 844
 
1 201 713
 
3.33
 
1.30
 
137 645
 
156 881
 
6.35
 
1.41
 
138 724
 
157 227
 
6.73
 
1.41
 
NORTH AMERICA
380 709
 
404 001
 
2.38
 
0.62
 
2 520
 
2 299
 
1.53
 
-0.66
 
54 306
 
54 834
 
2.38
 
1.52
 
Canada
13 616
 
14 980
 
3.28
 
0.57
 
1 047
 
1 007
 
-5.60
 
-1.45
 
1 465
 
1 585
 
27.13
 
-0.16
 
United States
367 093
 
389 021
 
2.35
 
0.62
 
1 473
 
1 292
 
18.76
 
0.03
 
52 842
 
53 248
 
2.20
 
1.57
 
LATIN AMERICA
163 051
 
202 506
 
5.71
 
1.90
 
31 356
 
36 047
 
5.38
 
2.13
 
49 233
 
62 888
 
12.26
 
1.70
 
Argentina
36 863
 
46 731
 
10.07
 
2.13
 
4
 
4
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
19 347
 
22 821
 
8.27
 
1.63
 
Brazil
82 663
 
106 672
 
5.89
 
2.01
 
1 484
 
697
 
5.10
 
0.23
 
26 152
 
36 099
 
16.40
 
1.68
 
Chile
1 260
 
1 401
 
-1.86
 
2.53
 
1 463
 
1 708
 
7.71
 
1.83
 
107
 
140
 
5.00
 
-1.79
 
Colombia
1 688
 
2 894
 
0.60
 
3.26
 
4 613
 
5 081
 
5.12
 
1.00
 
88
 
84
 
17.54
 
-0.93
 
Mexico
26 222
 
27 566
 
2.44
 
0.72
 
12 974
 
16 717
 
7.14
 
2.59
 
1 166
 
925
 
34.11
 
2.64
 
Paraguay
4 713
 
4 590
 
12.17
 
1.89
 
10
 
10
 
-5.27
 
-0.18
 
2 337
 
2 784
 
11.10
 
2.82
 
EUROPE
108 166
 
127 139
 
2.96
 
1.32
 
15 027
 
9 786
 
17.48
 
-2.58
 
28 301
 
32 791
 
16.35
 
1.44
 
European Union
59 908
 
70 929
 
-0.29
 
1.15
 
14 289
 
9 229
 
19.31
 
-2.75
 
2 367
 
2 895
 
4.49
 
1.46
 
Russia
13 792
 
17 115
 
15.97
 
2.09
 
45
 
53
 
-3.36
 
0.06
 
5 192
 
6 145
 
43.07
 
2.01
 
Ukraine
25 167
 
30 538
 
11.52
 
1.51
 
48
 
25
 
6.20
 
-0.10
 
18 935
 
21 762
 
18.75
 
1.50
 
AFRICA
77 302
 
102 018
 
3.32
 
2.18
 
22 522
 
26 798
 
6.64
 
2.28
 
4 118
 
4 829
 
-0.44
 
-1.77
 
Egypt
7 635
 
8 474
 
0.54
 
2.14
 
8 933
 
12 295
 
7.33
 
2.31
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Ethiopia
7 810
 
9 516
 
8.98
 
2.00
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
650
 
305
 
26.23
 
-6.51
 
Nigeria
10 686
 
13 205
 
4.88
 
1.83
 
443
 
722
 
24.14
 
2.38
 
150
 
125
 
-9.49
 
-0.80
 
South Africa
12 132
 
15 426
 
-0.39
 
0.60
 
1 399
 
0
 
64.11
 
..
 
1 370
 
1 862
 
-5.06
 
-5.22
 
ASIA
311 012
 
365 332
 
3.58
 
1.52
 
66 068
 
81 808
 
5.36
 
1.50
 
2 694
 
1 809
 
-7.09
 
-1.72
 
China 1
220 031
 
250 628
 
3.70
 
1.34
 
3 212
 
6 689
 
35.99
 
4.22
 
37
 
12
 
-23.60
 
12.82
 
India
24 853
 
32 525
 
3.79
 
2.27
 
99
 
54
 
25.89
 
-0.87
 
547
 
131
 
-19.86
 
-9.19
 
Indonesia
21 486
 
28 158
 
3.18
 
1.81
 
1 881
 
1 052
 
17.41
 
3.88
 
137
 
77
 
7.55
 
-0.49
 
Iran
989
 
1 112
 
-5.81
 
1.76
 
6 708
 
9 815
 
9.33
 
2.10
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Japan
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
14 950
 
14 924
 
-1.13
 
-0.11
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
600
 
632
 
2.34
 
1.47
 
40
 
33
 
43.30
 
1.10
 
40
 
49
 
29.96
 
-1.10
 
Korea
77
 
81
 
-0.70
 
0.22
 
10 210
 
10 985
 
4.20
 
0.33
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Malaysia
59
 
71
 
4.00
 
1.56
 
3 621
 
4 734
 
3.47
 
1.63
 
36
 
31
 
17.12
 
-1.61
 
Pakistan
5 433
 
6 842
 
6.25
 
1.69
 
7
 
30
 
4.80
 
23.05
 
50
 
2
 
-31.91
 
-31.29
 
Philippines
7 538
 
9 137
 
1.52
 
1.56
 
463
 
910
 
20.93
 
16.83
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Saudi Arabia
84
 
106
 
-6.28
 
2.53
 
3 733
 
5 523
 
9.97
 
1.94
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Thailand
4 560
 
5 426
 
0.01
 
1.82
 
146
 
242
 
-11.93
 
1.58
 
465
 
186
 
-3.95
 
-1.56
 
Turkey
6 233
 
7 639
 
5.63
 
2.09
 
1 056
 
1 268
 
14.49
 
-3.29
 
69
 
70
 
3.17
 
0.63
 
Viet Nam
5 213
 
6 215
 
1.94
 
1.83
 
8 476
 
12 745
 
33.58
 
3.17
 
92
 
63
 
39.82
 
-0.95
 
OCEANIA
604
 
717
 
0.33
 
2.35
 
152
 
143
 
68.50
 
1.32
 
73
 
76
 
12.07
 
0.64
 
Australia
398
 
496
 
1.37
 
2.51
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
68
 
71
 
14.88
 
0.68
 
New Zealand
195
 
209
 
-1.62
 
2.04
 
148
 
141
 
118.09
 
1.37
 
5
 
5
 
-2.05
 
0.00
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
504 032
 
549 906
 
2.44
 
0.78
 
35 755
 
28 900
 
5.25
 
-0.99
 
84 110
 
89 636
 
5.36
 
1.29
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
536 812
 
651 807
 
4.25
 
1.76
 
101 890
 
127 981
 
6.77
 
2.05
 
54 614
 
67 590
 
9.41
 
1.58
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
38 163
 
52 587
 
4.29
 
2.71
 
2 215
 
2 159
 
5.34
 
-1.27
 
2 756
 
3 360
 
5.77
 
2.24
 
OECD 2
475 206
 
512 530
 
2.02
 
0.72
 
59 217
 
59 040
 
5.37
 
0.16
 
58 088
 
58 946
 
2.65
 
1.52
 
BRICS
353 471
 
422 365
 
4.39
 
1.58
 
6 240
 
7 493
 
21.09
 
3.70
 
33 298
 
44 248
 
12.32
 
1.24
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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