OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027
The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018
A.22 | Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets | ||||||||||||
A.22 | Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2015-17est | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| ARGENTINA | ||||||||||||
| Export tax | ||||||||||||
| Soybean | % | 30.2 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Other oilseeds | % | 11.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Soybean meal | % | 27.3 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Soybean oil | % | 27.3 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| AUSTRALIA | ||||||||||||
| Tariffs | ||||||||||||
| Soybean oil | % | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Rapeseed oil | % | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| CANADA | ||||||||||||
| Tariffs | ||||||||||||
| Rapeseed oil | % | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| EUROPEAN UNION 1 | ||||||||||||
| Voluntary coupled support | ||||||||||||
| Soybean | mln EUR | 146 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 |
| Tariffs | ||||||||||||
| Soybean oil | % | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Rapeseed oil | % | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| JAPAN | ||||||||||||
| New output payments | ||||||||||||
| Soybean | JPY/kg | 168.5 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 | 154.2 |
| Tariffs | ||||||||||||
| Soybean oil | JPY/kg | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| Rapeseed oil | JPY/kg | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| KOREA | ||||||||||||
| Soybean tariff-quota | kt | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 | 1 032 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 | 487 |
| Soybean (for food) mark up | '000 KRW/t | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 |
| MEXICO | ||||||||||||
| Tariffs | ||||||||||||
| Soybean | % | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Soybean meal | % | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 |
| Soybean oil | % | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| UNITED STATES | ||||||||||||
| ARC participation rate | ||||||||||||
| Soybean | % | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 96.9 |
| Soybean loan rate | USD/t | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 | 183.7 |
| Tariffs | ||||||||||||
| Rapeseed | % | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Soybean meal | % | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Rapeseed meal | % | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Soybean oil | % | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Rapeseed oil | % | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| CHINA | ||||||||||||
| Tariffs | ||||||||||||
| Soybean | % | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Soybean meal | % | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Soybean oil in-quota tariff | % | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Vegetable oil tariff-quota | kt | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 | 7 998.1 |
| INDIA | ||||||||||||
| Soybean tariff | % | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Rapeseed tariff | % | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Soybean meal tariff | % | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Soybean oil tariff | % | 10.8 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| INDONESIA | ||||||||||||
| Protein meal tariff | % | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| PAKISTAN | ||||||||||||
| Protein meal tariff | % | 10.7 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| VIET NAM | ||||||||||||
| Protein meal tariff | % | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated. The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Since 2015 the Basic payment scheme (BPS) holds, which shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, compulsory policy instruments have been introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%). | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |