1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.30 - Main policy assumptions for meat markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.30Main policy assumptions for meat markets
A.30Main policy assumptions for meat markets
  
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef export tax
%
5.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt pw
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
129.2
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
Poultry meat tariff-quota
kt pw
89.6
 
95.7
 
96.9
 
98.1
 
99.3
 
100.5
 
101.6
 
102.8
 
104.0
 
105.2
 
106.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
EUROPEAN UNION 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef and veal 2
mln EUR
1 698
 
1 694
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
Sheep and goat meat 3
mln EUR
481
 
487
 
491
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
Beef basic price 4
EUR/kg dwt
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Beef buy-in price 4,5
EUR/kg dwt
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt cwe
332.7
 
350.6
 
359.8
 
369.0
 
378.3
 
387.5
 
389.0
 
390.6
 
392.2
 
392.7
 
393.2
 
Pig tariff-quota
kt cwe
167.5
 
190.1
 
203.5
 
216.9
 
230.3
 
245.7
 
246.6
 
247.5
 
248.4
 
249.3
 
250.2
 
Poultry tariff-quota
kt rtc
1 008.7
 
1 014.7
 
1 017.9
 
1 021.1
 
1 024.3
 
1 026.3
 
1 028.4
 
1 030.5
 
1 032.5
 
1 034.6
 
1 036.7
 
Sheep meat tariff-quota
kt cwe
294.7
 
295.6
 
296.1
 
296.3
 
296.5
 
296.7
 
296.9
 
297.1
 
297.1
 
297.5
 
297.7
 
JAPAN 6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef stabilisation prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Upper price
JPY/kg dwt
1 165.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
1 215.0
 
Lower price
JPY/kg dwt
885.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
900.0
 
Beef tariff
%
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
Pigmeat stabilisation prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Upper price
JPY/kg dwt
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
Lower price
JPY/kg dwt
441.7
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
Pig meat import system
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff
%
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
Standard import price
JPY/kg dwt
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Pigmeat tariff
%
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
MEXICO 7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef and veal tariff-quota
kt pw
220.0
 
220.0
 
220.0
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Out-of-quota tariff 8
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Poultry meat tariff-quota
kt pw
300.0
 
300.0
 
300.0
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
100.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
RUSSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt pw
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
51.7
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
Pigmeat tariff-quota 9
kt pw
430.0
 
430.0
 
430.0
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
Poultry tariff-quota
kt pw
360.7
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt pw
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
CHINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff
%
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
Pigmeat tariff
%
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
Sheep meat tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff
%
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
Pigmeat tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Sheep meat tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
SOUTH AFRICA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sheep meat tariff-quota
kt pw
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
..
Not available
Note: Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Since 2015 the Basic payment scheme (BPS) holds, which shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, compulsory policy instruments have been introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
2.
Implemented in 24 Member States.
3.
Implemented in 22 Member States.
4.
Price for R3 grade male cattle.
5.
Safety-net trigger.
6.
Year beginning 1 April.
7.
Intended for countries which whom Mexico has no free trade agreements.
8.
25% for frozen beef.
9.
Eliminated in 2020 and replaced by import tariff.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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