1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.38 - Main policy assumptions for dairy markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.38Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
A.38Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk target price 1
CADc/litre
79.8
 
82.3
 
84.1
 
85.9
 
87.6
 
89.1
 
90.6
 
92.1
 
93.6
 
95.2
 
96.7
 
Butter support price
CAD/t
7 674.4
 
8 064.6
 
8 237.3
 
8 417.5
 
8 578.3
 
8 726.6
 
8 872.1
 
9 017.8
 
9 166.7
 
9 320.2
 
9 474.6
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk and milk products 3
mln EUR
835
 
853
 
861
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
Milk quota
kt pw
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Butter reference price 4
EUR/t
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
SMP reference price
EUR/t
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
Butter tariff-quotas
kt pw
89.2
 
89.9
 
90.2
 
90.3
 
90.3
 
90.4
 
90.4
 
90.5
 
90.5
 
90.6
 
90.6
 
Cheese tariff-quotas
kt pw
118.2
 
118.9
 
119.2
 
119.5
 
119.9
 
120.2
 
120.5
 
120.8
 
121.2
 
121.5
 
121.8
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Direct payments 5
JPY/kg
12.1
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
Cheese tariff 6
%
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
In-quota tariff
%
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
733.0
 
SMP
kt pw
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
In-quota tariff
%
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
210.0
 
WMP
kt pw
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
SMP
kt pw
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
WMP
kt pw
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheese
kt pw
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
SMP
kt pw
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
51.7
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
Liconsa social program
mln MXN
1 190.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
1 202.5
 
RUSSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
16.1
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
UNITED STATES 7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff-quota
kt pw
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
In-quota tariff
%
3.3
 
2.7
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
41.5
 
33.9
 
36.5
 
36.2
 
36.1
 
35.9
 
35.7
 
35.5
 
35.4
 
35.2
 
35.0
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
110.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
12.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
44.2
 
40.7
 
39.6
 
39.1
 
38.6
 
38.1
 
37.6
 
37.2
 
36.7
 
36.2
 
35.7
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
36.7
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Skim milk powder tariff
%
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
Whole milk powder tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
SOUTH AFRICA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
Skim milk powder tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Whole milk powder tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Note: Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
For manufacturing milk.
2.
Since 2015 the Basic payment scheme (BPS) holds, which shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, compulsory policy instruments have been introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%). The EU’s milk quota system has been abolished since April 2015.
3.
Implemented in 19 Member States. The maximum quantity limit is 11.695 million dairy cow heads.
4.
Buying-in when market prices go below the reference price for SMP and 90% of the reference price for butter is operable automatically for a maximum quantity of 109 000 tonnes for SMP and 50 000 tonnes for butter (before 2014, this ceiling was set at 30 000 tonnes). Above that ceiling intervention can take place only via tender. For 2018 due to a temporary measure the SMP buying in quantity at fixed prices of is set to 0. Buying in via a tendering procedure may still be possible.
5.
In April 2017, in addition to skim milk powder, butter and cheese, milk used for fresh cream, concentrated skim mik and concentrated whole milk production became covered by the direct payments.
6.
Excludes processed cheese.
7.
A milk margin (all-milk price minus the average feed margin) protection program applies, which has been updated February 2018, and provides a dairy safety net to farmers. Farmers have to decide on enrolment and coverage levels.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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