1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.17 - Main policy assumptions for cereal markets

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.17Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
A.17Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Crops export tax
%
21.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Rice export tax
%
1.7
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
kt
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
Barley
kt
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 3
mln EUR
88.9
 
90.0
 
89.3
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
Rice 4
mln EUR
56.4
 
55.9
 
55.7
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
Cereal reference price 5
EUR/t
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
Direct payments ceilings 6
bln EUR
41.5
 
41.6
 
41.6
 
42.2
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
Rice reference price 7
EUR/t
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
Wheat tariff-quota 1
kt
4 452.4
 
4 513.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
4 523.2
 
Coarse grain tariff-quota 1
kt
72.8
 
78.3
 
69.0
 
66.4
 
61.5
 
53.1
 
49.4
 
44.6
 
39.9
 
35.3
 
29.6
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
Rice quota 8
kt
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
In-quota tariff
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
MERCOSUR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Coarse grain tariff 9
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Rice tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Barley import tariff
%
20.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ARC participation rate
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
%
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
Coarse grains
%
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
93.1
 
Wheat loan rate
USD/t
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
Maize loan rate
USD/t
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
CHINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
Coarse grains tariff
%
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Minimum support price
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rice
INR/t
14 988
 
16 361
 
16 990
 
17 651
 
18 341
 
19 059
 
19 806
 
20 585
 
21 388
 
22 225
 
23 095
 
Wheat
INR/t
15 714
 
17 375
 
18 059
 
18 582
 
19 103
 
19 650
 
20 209
 
20 828
 
21 411
 
22 031
 
22 673
 
Wheat tariff
%
50.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
Rice tariff
%
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
70.1
 
RUSSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat ad valorem import tax
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Rice tariff equivalent of import barriers
%
11.7
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Coarse grains tariff equivalent of import barriers
%
0.9
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Coarse grain specific tariff
RUB/t
1.5
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Coarse grain ad valorem import tax
%
0.9
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Year beginning 1 July.
2.
Since 2015 the Basic payment scheme (BPS) holds, which shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, compulsory policy instruments have been introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
3.
Mainly for durum wheat. Implemented in 6 Member States.
4.
Implemented in 6 Member States.
5.
Buying-in at the fixed reference price is operable automatically only for common wheat up to a maximum quantity of 3 million tons per marketing year. Above that ceiling and for durum wheat, maize and barley intervention can take place only via tender.
6.
Estimated net amounts for all direct payments based on Annex II of EU Regulation No 1307/2013, accounting for the transfers between direct aids and rural development envelopes.
7.
Intervention is set at zero tonnes per marketing year. However, the Commission may initiate intervention if market requires.
8.
Milled rice basis.
9.
Applied by Brazil only.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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