1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.42 - Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.42Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
A.42Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
‌‌
‌‌
‌2017est‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Export tax
%
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
BRAZIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Incorporation mandate 2
%
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
BRL/hl
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
CAD/hl
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
Import tariff
CAD/hl
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Incorporation mandate 2
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
CAD/hl
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
Incorporation mandate 2
%
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
COLOMBIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Blending target 1,4
%
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biofuel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Energy share in fuel consumption 5
%
5.6
 
5.6
 
5.7
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
5.8
 
5.8
 
5.8
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
EUR/hl
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
8.8
 
Import tariff
EUR/hl
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
EUR/hl
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
Import tariff
%
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
6.4
 
7.3
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
INDONESIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
MALAYSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
THAILAND
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
11.4
 
12.4
 
13.5
 
14.5
 
15.6
 
16.6
 
17.6
 
18.7
 
19.7
 
19.7
 
19.7
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Renewable Fuel Standard 6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
mln L
72 983
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
73 020
 
advanced mandate
mln L
16 202
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
16 239
 
cellulosic ethanol
mln L
1 177
 
1 090
 
1 446
 
1 556
 
1 690
 
1 923
 
2 045
 
2 229
 
2 406
 
2 559
 
2 739
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import surcharge
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Import tariff (undenatured)
%
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
Import tariff (denatured)
%
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
Blender tax credit
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
Blender tax credit
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Note: 2017est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
For many countries, shares for ethanol and biodiesel are not individually specified in the legislation.
Figures are based on a combination of the EU mandate in the context of the Renewable Energy Directive and the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) in the EU member states.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Expressed in volume share.
2.
Share in respective fuel type, in volume.
3.
Difference between tax rates applying to fossil and biogen fuels.
4.
Applies to cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants.
5.
According to the current Renewable energy Directive 2009/28/EC, the energy content of biofuel other than first-generation biofuels counts twice towards meeting the target. It is assumed that other sources than biofuel will help filling the 10% transport energy target.
6.
The total, advanced and cellulosic mandates are not at the levels defined in EISA. Details can be found in the policy assumptions section of the biofuel chapter.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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