1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table B.1 - Information on food price changes

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌B.1Information on food price changes
B.1Information on food price changes
  
‌‌
Total inflation % change
(year-on-year)
Food inflation % change
(year-on-year)
 2
Expenditure share of food
Food contribution to total change in inflation 3
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia 1
2.1
 
..
 
1.9
 
..
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
0.2
 
..
 
Austria
2.0
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Belgium
2.6
 
1.7
 
2.1
 
2.2
 
17.4
 
17.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
Canada
2.1
 
1.7
 
-4.0
 
1.6
 
11.5
 
11.5
 
-0.5
 
0.2
 
Chile
2.8
 
2.2
 
2.4
 
3.9
 
18.9
 
18.9
 
0.5
 
0.7
 
Czech Republic
2.2
 
2.2
 
3.5
 
4.5
 
17.0
 
17.0
 
0.6
 
0.8
 
Denmark
0.9
 
0.7
 
2.0
 
1.6
 
11.5
 
11.5
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Estonia
2.8
 
3.4
 
3.7
 
5.7
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
0.8
 
1.2
 
Finland
0.8
 
0.8
 
-2.4
 
1.5
 
13.4
 
13.4
 
-0.3
 
0.2
 
France
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
14.7
 
14.7
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Germany
1.9
 
1.6
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
10.4
 
10.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
Greece
1.2
 
-0.2
 
1.1
 
-1.2
 
17.1
 
17.1
 
0.2
 
-0.2
 
Hungary
2.3
 
2.0
 
1.2
 
4.5
 
19.6
 
19.6
 
0.2
 
0.9
 
Iceland
1.9
 
2.4
 
-0.6
 
-0.1
 
14.9
 
14.9
 
-0.1
 
0.0
 
Ireland
0.3
 
0.2
 
-2.4
 
-1.7
 
11.7
 
11.7
 
-0.3
 
-0.2
 
Israel
0.1
 
0.1
 
-1.6
 
-1.2
 
14.3
 
14.3
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
Italy
1.0
 
0.9
 
2.3
 
1.3
 
16.3
 
16.3
 
0.4
 
0.2
 
Japan
0.4
 
1.4
 
2.2
 
3.8
 
19.0
 
19.0
 
0.4
 
0.7
 
Korea
2.0
 
1.0
 
5.3
 
-0.3
 
14.4
 
14.4
 
0.8
 
0.0
 
Luxembourg
1.7
 
1.1
 
2.6
 
1.8
 
11.1
 
11.1
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
Mexico
4.7
 
5.5
 
3.2
 
8.6
 
18.9
 
18.9
 
0.6
 
1.6
 
Netherlands
1.7
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
2.2
 
11.3
 
11.3
 
0.2
 
0.3
 
New Zealand 1
2.2
 
..
 
1.6
 
..
 
17.4
 
17.4
 
0.3
 
..
 
Norway
2.8
 
1.6
 
2.0
 
2.6
 
13.3
 
13.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
Poland
1.8
 
2.1
 
3.3
 
..
 
24.1
 
24.1
 
0.8
 
..
 
Portugal
1.3
 
1.0
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
18.1
 
18.1
 
0.2
 
0.3
 
Slovak Republic
0.7
 
2.4
 
1.5
 
6.7
 
18.4
 
18.4
 
0.3
 
1.2
 
Slovenia
1.3
 
1.5
 
2.8
 
2.9
 
17.0
 
17.0
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Spain
3.0
 
0.6
 
1.0
 
1.3
 
18.2
 
18.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Sweden
1.4
 
1.6
 
1.7
 
2.3
 
13.9
 
13.9
 
0.2
 
0.3
 
Switzerland
0.3
 
0.7
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
10.8
 
10.8
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
Turkey
9.2
 
10.3
 
7.8
 
8.8
 
26.8
 
26.8
 
2.1
 
2.3
 
United Kingdom
1.8
 
3.0
 
-0.5
 
3.7
 
11.8
 
11.8
 
-0.1
 
0.4
 
United States
2.5
 
2.1
 
-1.9
 
1.0
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
-0.1
 
0.1
 
OECD Total
2.3
 
2.2
 
0.4
 
2.2
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Enhanced Engagement
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Brazil
5.4
 
2.9
 
5.1
 
-1.5
 
22.5
 
22.5
 
1.2
 
-0.3
 
China
2.5
 
1.5
 
2.5
 
-0.5
 
33.6
 
33.6
 
0.8
 
-0.2
 
India
1.9
 
5.1
 
0.5
 
4.7
 
35.4
 
35.4
 
0.2
 
1.7
 
Indonesia
3.5
 
3.3
 
4.1
 
2.9
 
19.6
 
19.6
 
0.8
 
0.6
 
Russia
5.0
 
2.2
 
3.9
 
0.3
 
32.8
 
32.8
 
1.3
 
0.1
 
South Africa
6.8
 
4.3
 
12.5
 
3.8
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
2.3
 
0.7
 
Non OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Algeria
8.2
 
3.6
 
8.0
 
1.8
 
43.8
 
43.8
 
3.5
 
0.8
 
Bangladesh
5.2
 
..
 
6.5
 
7.1
 
28.6
 
28.6
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
Bolivia
3.7
 
2.9
 
5.8
 
18.0
 
27.6
 
27.6
 
1.6
 
5.0
 
Botswana
3.4
 
3.1
 
4.2
 
..
 
23.7
 
23.7
 
1.0
 
..
 
Bulgaria
0.4
 
0.9
 
3.6
 
0.8
 
37.2
 
37.2
 
1.3
 
0.3
 
Colombia
5.5
 
3.7
 
6.0
 
1.5
 
34.7
 
34.7
 
2.1
 
0.5
 
Costa Rica
0.9
 
2.4
 
0.8
 
-2.2
 
21.4
 
21.4
 
0.2
 
-0.5
 
Dominican Republic
2.3
 
3.9
 
-2.0
 
5.2
 
29.2
 
29.2
 
-0.6
 
1.5
 
Ecuador
0.9
 
-0.1
 
1.5
 
-0.1
 
23.0
 
23.0
 
0.3
 
0.0
 
Egypt
28.1
 
17.0
 
37.1
 
12.9
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
9.8
 
3.4
 
El Salvador
1.3
 
1.5
 
2.8
 
2.9
 
26.0
 
26.0
 
0.7
 
0.8
 
Ethiopia
6.9
 
10.5
 
6.0
 
13.7
 
57.0
 
57.0
 
3.4
 
7.8
 
Ghana
13.3
 
10.3
 
7.0
 
6.8
 
37.0
 
37.0
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
Guatelama
3.8
 
4.7
 
5.6
 
10.5
 
28.6
 
28.6
 
1.6
 
3.0
 
Haiti
14.1
 
13.2
 
13.9
 
13.2
 
50.4
 
50.4
 
7.0
 
6.7
 
Honduras
3.4
 
4.6
 
-1.4
 
1.7
 
31.8
 
31.8
 
-0.4
 
0.5
 
Iraq
-0.8
 
0.8
 
-3.3
 
-0.6
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
-1.2
 
-0.2
 
Jordan
2.5
 
3.0
 
-1.4
 
-1.3
 
35.2
 
35.2
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
Kenya
7.0
 
4.8
 
12.5
 
4.7
 
36.0
 
36.0
 
4.5
 
1.7
 
Madagascar
6.9
 
..
 
5.6
 
..
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
3.4
 
..
 
Malawi
18.1
 
4.5
 
21.0
 
8.4
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
10.5
 
4.2
 
Malaysia
3.2
 
3.5
 
4.0
 
2.7
 
56.3
 
56.3
 
2.3
 
1.5
 
Moldavia
3.0
 
6.5
 
3.8
 
8.4
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
2.3
 
5.0
 
Morocco
2.1
 
1.8
 
2.8
 
2.2
 
40.4
 
40.4
 
1.1
 
0.9
 
New Caledonia
0.9
 
1.4
 
2.8
 
1.4
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
0.6
 
0.3
 
Nicaragua
3.8
 
5.4
 
0.0
 
5.6
 
26.1
 
26.1
 
0.0
 
1.5
 
Niger
0.4
 
7.6
 
-2.9
 
7.2
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
-1.2
 
2.9
 
Nigeria
18.7
 
15.1
 
17.8
 
18.9
 
51.8
 
51.8
 
9.2
 
9.8
 
Pakistan
3.7
 
4.4
 
2.6
 
3.7
 
37.5
 
37.5
 
1.0
 
1.4
 
Panama
0.6
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
-1.9
 
33.6
 
33.6
 
0.1
 
-0.6
 
Paraguay
1.9
 
4.7
 
2.6
 
7.7
 
39.1
 
39.1
 
1.0
 
3.0
 
Peru
3.1
 
1.4
 
4.1
 
0.2
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
1.0
 
0.1
 
Philippines
2.7
 
3.9
 
3.4
 
4.5
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
1.3
 
1.8
 
Romania
0.1
 
4.3
 
1.1
 
3.8
 
37.4
 
37.4
 
0.4
 
1.4
 
Rwanda
12.0
 
0.1
 
10.0
 
-2.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
3.9
 
-0.8
 
Senegal
1.6
 
-0.3
 
5.6
 
-0.3
 
53.4
 
53.4
 
3.0
 
-0.2
 
Singapore
0.6
 
0.0
 
1.9
 
1.1
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
0.4
 
0.2
 
Sri Lanka
5.5
 
5.8
 
4.5
 
10.5
 
41.0
 
41.0
 
1.8
 
4.3
 
Chinese Taipei
2.2
 
0.9
 
3.0
 
0.8
 
23.7
 
23.7
 
0.7
 
0.2
 
Tanzania
5.2
 
4.0
 
7.6
 
6.3
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
2.9
 
2.4
 
Thailand
2.2
 
0.7
 
2.4
 
0.1
 
33.0
 
33.0
 
0.8
 
0.0
 
Tunisia
4.6
 
6.9
 
4.7
 
7.9
 
28.7
 
28.7
 
1.3
 
2.3
 
Uganda
5.9
 
3.0
 
14.5
 
2.7
 
27.2
 
27.2
 
3.9
 
0.7
 
Zambia
7.0
 
6.2
 
7.4
 
4.6
 
52.5
 
52.5
 
3.9
 
2.4
 
..
Not available
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No data available for January 2018 in Australia and New Zealand.
2.
CPI food: definition based on national sources.
3.
Contribution is food inflation multiplied by expenditure share, expressed in %.
Source: OECD and national sources.

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