1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.35 - Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.35Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption
A.35Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
FOOD CONSUMPTION (kg/cap)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
415 523
 
520 846
 
2.09
 
2.19
 
55.4
 
62.3
 
0.89
 
1.22
 
NORTH AMERICA
26 625
 
25 289
 
-1.31
 
-0.38
 
74.3
 
65.2
 
-2.07
 
-1.09
 
Canada
2 909
 
3 099
 
-0.94
 
0.78
 
80.2
 
77.9
 
-1.95
 
-0.04
 
United States
23 716
 
22 190
 
-1.36
 
-0.53
 
73.6
 
63.8
 
-2.08
 
-1.22
 
LATIN AMERICA
33 864
 
39 736
 
0.20
 
1.63
 
52.7
 
56.2
 
-0.92
 
0.78
 
Argentina
1 601
 
1 657
 
-0.76
 
0.50
 
29.7
 
27.8
 
-2.02
 
-0.40
 
Brazil
14 856
 
18 821
 
2.67
 
2.27
 
71.6
 
84.6
 
1.75
 
1.65
 
Chile
487
 
652
 
-11.66
 
2.80
 
27.2
 
33.7
 
-12.45
 
2.12
 
Colombia
5 914
 
6 824
 
0.75
 
1.22
 
121.6
 
130.2
 
-0.24
 
0.57
 
Mexico
3 520
 
3 344
 
-1.99
 
-0.52
 
27.6
 
23.3
 
-3.37
 
-1.57
 
Paraguay
533
 
737
 
1.91
 
2.96
 
79.2
 
96.7
 
0.57
 
1.82
 
EUROPE
79 324
 
77 311
 
-0.67
 
-0.15
 
104.1
 
100.5
 
-0.93
 
-0.13
 
European Union
46 493
 
45 900
 
-0.09
 
-0.20
 
89.2
 
86.2
 
-0.50
 
-0.25
 
Russia
16 007
 
15 189
 
-1.63
 
-0.58
 
111.2
 
107.1
 
-1.71
 
-0.42
 
Ukraine
7 406
 
8 413
 
-1.47
 
1.51
 
166.6
 
200.5
 
-0.98
 
2.05
 
AFRICA
35 484
 
45 412
 
0.97
 
3.03
 
29.0
 
28.5
 
-1.60
 
0.62
 
Egypt
1 373
 
2 290
 
-1.61
 
5.08
 
14.4
 
20.0
 
-3.67
 
3.41
 
Ethiopia
3 215
 
5 184
 
-0.62
 
5.05
 
31.4
 
39.4
 
-3.16
 
2.73
 
Nigeria
250
 
319
 
4.27
 
2.44
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.53
 
-0.09
 
South Africa
2 628
 
2 991
 
0.53
 
1.21
 
46.9
 
47.6
 
-0.80
 
0.18
 
ASIA
237 125
 
329 571
 
4.20
 
3.04
 
53.3
 
68.0
 
3.16
 
2.29
 
China 1
28 367
 
35 958
 
-1.12
 
1.82
 
20.6
 
25.4
 
-1.35
 
1.60
 
India
108 248
 
171 620
 
5.18
 
4.29
 
81.7
 
116.2
 
3.89
 
3.29
 
Indonesia
767
 
903
 
-1.59
 
1.57
 
2.9
 
3.1
 
-2.81
 
0.66
 
Iran
494
 
626
 
-14.72
 
1.71
 
6.2
 
7.1
 
-15.76
 
0.96
 
Japan
4 242
 
4 361
 
-1.06
 
0.30
 
33.2
 
35.4
 
-0.97
 
0.65
 
Kazakhstan
4 605
 
5 827
 
-0.44
 
2.30
 
256.1
 
292.9
 
-1.91
 
1.42
 
Korea
1 351
 
1 350
 
-0.15
 
-0.24
 
26.6
 
25.7
 
-0.55
 
-0.52
 
Malaysia
86
 
111
 
2.81
 
2.45
 
2.8
 
3.1
 
1.04
 
1.21
 
Pakistan
44 345
 
54 196
 
7.61
 
1.93
 
229.5
 
231.7
 
5.40
 
0.21
 
Philippines
8
 
11
 
-0.72
 
1.53
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
-2.32
 
0.12
 
Saudi Arabia
1 078
 
1 490
 
8.31
 
2.99
 
33.4
 
39.0
 
5.41
 
1.52
 
Thailand
1 050
 
1 219
 
3.75
 
1.10
 
15.2
 
17.5
 
3.32
 
1.02
 
Turkey
14 314
 
17 691
 
6.99
 
2.05
 
180.0
 
203.4
 
5.35
 
1.42
 
Viet Nam
620
 
917
 
10.28
 
3.59
 
6.6
 
8.8
 
9.08
 
2.69
 
OCEANIA
3 100
 
3 527
 
1.61
 
0.95
 
72.1
 
70.9
 
-0.46
 
-0.29
 
Australia
2 570
 
2 923
 
1.35
 
1.00
 
106.5
 
106.6
 
-0.16
 
-0.13
 
New Zealand
507
 
579
 
3.33
 
0.68
 
50.7
 
50.0
 
-1.75
 
-0.26
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
136 345
 
138 997
 
-0.22
 
0.24
 
95.2
 
93.4
 
-0.73
 
-0.03
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
279 178
 
381 849
 
3.40
 
3.01
 
46.2
 
55.6
 
2.03
 
1.86
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
19 535
 
23 044
 
3.67
 
2.69
 
24.6
 
22.6
 
1.25
 
0.42
 
OECD 2
102 201
 
104 205
 
0.21
 
0.17
 
75.6
 
73.2
 
-0.47
 
-0.21
 
BRICS
170 106
 
244 579
 
2.87
 
3.33
 
54.4
 
73.3
 
2.05
 
2.75
 
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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