1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.39.1 - Fish and seafood projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.39.1Fish and seafood projections: Production and trade
A.39.1Fish and seafood projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
171 747
 
194 675
 
2.44
 
1.08
 
39 732
 
45 852
 
1.58
 
1.44
 
38 885
 
45 862
 
1.89
 
1.66
 
NORTH AMERICA
6 437
 
6 473
 
1.02
 
0.13
 
5 921
 
7 037
 
1.48
 
1.39
 
2 736
 
3 078
 
0.54
 
1.44
 
Canada
1 058
 
1 104
 
-0.55
 
0.41
 
646
 
540
 
0.97
 
-2.30
 
828
 
666
 
-0.56
 
-2.00
 
United States
5 379
 
5 369
 
1.36
 
0.07
 
5 275
 
6 498
 
1.54
 
1.77
 
1 907
 
2 411
 
1.04
 
2.64
 
LATIN AMERICA
13 789
 
15 556
 
-3.10
 
0.45
 
2 357
 
3 338
 
3.52
 
3.38
 
4 174
 
4 959
 
1.28
 
1.75
 
Argentina
781
 
842
 
-1.78
 
0.95
 
72
 
75
 
4.81
 
0.00
 
578
 
646
 
-2.05
 
0.99
 
Brazil
1 284
 
1 746
 
1.46
 
2.88
 
654
 
879
 
4.71
 
3.45
 
43
 
51
 
-2.01
 
-0.55
 
Chile
2 832
 
3 479
 
-4.93
 
0.94
 
129
 
183
 
11.25
 
3.00
 
1 433
 
1 972
 
3.53
 
3.11
 
Colombia
183
 
221
 
0.50
 
1.85
 
231
 
306
 
5.02
 
2.42
 
59
 
67
 
-5.33
 
-0.56
 
Mexico
1 726
 
1 846
 
0.05
 
-0.12
 
506
 
906
 
8.00
 
5.46
 
198
 
171
 
0.10
 
-1.48
 
Paraguay
25
 
26
 
2.51
 
0.00
 
4
 
4
 
6.40
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Peru
4 466
 
4 536
 
-5.94
 
-0.92
 
124
 
120
 
5.83
 
0.00
 
556
 
460
 
-1.03
 
0.00
 
EUROPE
17 166
 
17 979
 
0.93
 
0.36
 
10 321
 
12 097
 
-0.13
 
1.65
 
9 034
 
11 616
 
2.00
 
1.86
 
European Union
6 501
 
6 896
 
-0.03
 
0.47
 
8 260
 
9 757
 
0.93
 
1.73
 
2 364
 
3 861
 
1.50
 
4.30
 
Norway
3 515
 
3 785
 
0.27
 
0.63
 
303
 
220
 
3.76
 
-0.92
 
2 779
 
3 156
 
0.35
 
0.54
 
Russia
4 895
 
5 226
 
3.42
 
0.17
 
746
 
1 041
 
-7.19
 
3.82
 
2 350
 
3 122
 
5.54
 
1.55
 
Ukraine
107
 
81
 
-11.24
 
0.00
 
408
 
464
 
-5.58
 
-0.44
 
15
 
22
 
-17.80
 
-2.48
 
AFRICA
11 136
 
13 060
 
3.79
 
1.36
 
4 391
 
5 514
 
1.72
 
2.45
 
2 698
 
2 368
 
4.85
 
-0.58
 
Egypt
1 695
 
2 476
 
5.73
 
3.07
 
557
 
427
 
6.88
 
-1.28
 
47
 
50
 
28.25
 
0.00
 
Ethiopia
46
 
61
 
14.94
 
2.96
 
2
 
2
 
10.73
 
0.00
 
1
 
1
 
-1.31
 
0.00
 
Morocco
1 438
 
1 681
 
4.49
 
0.97
 
81
 
110
 
2.36
 
4.08
 
634
 
661
 
4.91
 
0.54
 
Nigeria
1 039
 
1 198
 
4.51
 
1.16
 
794
 
992
 
-9.23
 
1.70
 
14
 
15
 
-3.63
 
0.00
 
South Africa
612
 
598
 
0.35
 
-0.69
 
279
 
571
 
9.59
 
6.17
 
159
 
205
 
-0.47
 
1.33
 
ASIA
121 597
 
139 681
 
3.47
 
1.26
 
16 067
 
17 128
 
2.53
 
0.74
 
19 231
 
22 706
 
1.72
 
1.86
 
China 1
66 567
 
76 253
 
4.25
 
1.32
 
4 027
 
4 052
 
4.05
 
-0.88
 
7 617
 
8 694
 
1.45
 
1.91
 
India
10 660
 
12 737
 
4.17
 
1.40
 
36
 
35
 
9.70
 
0.00
 
1 131
 
1 525
 
6.57
 
3.00
 
Indonesia
11 472
 
14 452
 
7.18
 
1.85
 
177
 
412
 
-1.75
 
6.35
 
1 286
 
1 961
 
3.79
 
2.84
 
Iran
1 084
 
1 320
 
8.59
 
1.14
 
86
 
115
 
11.68
 
5.70
 
93
 
86
 
15.34
 
-0.29
 
Japan
3 957
 
3 490
 
-2.95
 
-0.94
 
3 677
 
3 548
 
0.06
 
0.38
 
694
 
920
 
2.47
 
1.91
 
Kazakhstan
43
 
47
 
-0.49
 
0.00
 
65
 
71
 
-3.89
 
1.00
 
40
 
34
 
-3.58
 
-1.39
 
Korea
1 954
 
1 842
 
-2.54
 
-0.02
 
1 714
 
1 940
 
2.66
 
0.74
 
595
 
399
 
-1.98
 
-1.14
 
Malaysia
1 777
 
1 971
 
0.61
 
0.73
 
500
 
402
 
0.56
 
-1.60
 
296
 
229
 
-1.44
 
-1.52
 
Pakistan
667
 
708
 
1.77
 
0.11
 
13
 
13
 
28.90
 
0.00
 
162
 
231
 
0.75
 
2.20
 
Philippines
2 878
 
3 241
 
-1.49
 
0.76
 
452
 
475
 
10.77
 
2.58
 
340
 
302
 
2.99
 
-2.24
 
Saudi Arabia
108
 
145
 
2.47
 
2.11
 
327
 
415
 
8.86
 
2.90
 
44
 
54
 
6.73
 
2.04
 
Thailand
2 455
 
2 703
 
-3.66
 
0.96
 
1 724
 
1 782
 
0.97
 
1.15
 
1 903
 
2 255
 
-3.91
 
2.23
 
Turkey
618
 
687
 
-1.13
 
1.23
 
119
 
140
 
4.97
 
2.68
 
197
 
267
 
13.80
 
3.11
 
Viet Nam
6 390
 
7 765
 
4.40
 
1.65
 
332
 
414
 
13.10
 
2.00
 
2 759
 
3 732
 
7.30
 
2.67
 
OCEANIA
1 622
 
1 925
 
2.03
 
1.53
 
675
 
739
 
1.98
 
0.44
 
1 013
 
1 136
 
4.11
 
0.97
 
Australia
267
 
288
 
1.09
 
1.09
 
466
 
548
 
0.65
 
0.91
 
84
 
80
 
3.77
 
0.57
 
New Zealand
530
 
554
 
-0.53
 
0.43
 
51
 
50
 
0.19
 
0.00
 
399
 
412
 
-0.65
 
0.50
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
28 860
 
29 322
 
0.30
 
0.14
 
21 025
 
24 206
 
0.45
 
1.44
 
12 901
 
16 095
 
1.50
 
1.76
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
142 582
 
165 053
 
2.92
 
1.26
 
18 717
 
21 646
 
3.00
 
1.45
 
25 723
 
29 502
 
2.07
 
1.62
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
11 750
 
13 676
 
3.55
 
1.30
 
1 068
 
1 302
 
10.84
 
2.34
 
980
 
812
 
1.32
 
-1.91
 
OECD 2
28 361
 
29 364
 
-1.01
 
0.24
 
21 452
 
24 669
 
1.28
 
1.41
 
11 482
 
14 316
 
1.09
 
2.04
 
BRICS
84 018
 
96 559
 
4.11
 
1.28
 
5 743
 
6 577
 
2.04
 
0.78
 
11 299
 
13 597
 
2.60
 
1.92
 
..
Not available
Note: Fish: The term “fish” indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators and aquatic plants. Imports and exports refer to trade of food fish i.e. for human consumption. All data are in live weight equivalent.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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