OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for world and national cotton markets for the ten-year period 2018-27. World cotton production is expected to grow at a slower pace than consumption during the first few years of the outlook period, reflecting lower prices and releases of global stocks accumulated between 2010 and 2014. India will remain the world’s largest country for cotton production, while the global area devoted to cotton is projected to recover slightly despite a decrease of 3% in China. Processing of raw cotton in China is expected to continue its long-term downward trend, while India will become the world’s largest country for cotton mill consumption. In 2027, the United States remains the world’s main exporter, accounting for 36% of global exports. Cotton prices are expected to be lower than in the base period (2015-17) in both real and nominal terms, as the world cotton price is continuously under pressure due to high stock levels and competition from synthetic fibres.

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