1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.43.1 - Cotton projections: Production and trade

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.43.1Cotton projections: Production and trade
A.43.1Cotton projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
23 372
 
28 720
 
-0.10
 
1.58
 
7 783
 
9 387
 
0.56
 
1.35
 
7 880
 
9 387
 
0.70
 
1.35
 
NORTH AMERICA
3 725
 
4 185
 
3.14
 
0.97
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
2 777
 
3 391
 
-0.29
 
0.98
 
Canada
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
United States
3 725
 
4 185
 
3.14
 
0.97
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
2 777
 
3 391
 
-0.29
 
0.98
 
LATIN AMERICA
1 891
 
2 476
 
1.04
 
2.97
 
337
 
340
 
-4.61
 
0.80
 
838
 
1 307
 
3.73
 
6.08
 
Argentina
187
 
263
 
0.47
 
5.08
 
3
 
2
 
-21.16
 
-0.17
 
52
 
64
 
10.89
 
1.02
 
Brazil
1 460
 
1 904
 
0.98
 
3.01
 
27
 
18
 
-2.07
 
-0.46
 
750
 
1 203
 
3.99
 
6.57
 
Chile
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
-37.90
 
2.19
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Colombia
10
 
13
 
-14.55
 
1.72
 
33
 
57
 
-6.64
 
4.90
 
0
 
0
 
54.57
 
..
 
Mexico
200
 
259
 
6.94
 
1.35
 
229
 
201
 
-2.98
 
-0.29
 
31
 
36
 
-2.03
 
2.85
 
Paraguay
5
 
5
 
-13.19
 
0.76
 
1
 
1
 
-11.47
 
2.47
 
3
 
2
 
-14.78
 
-2.41
 
EUROPE
298
 
294
 
1.67
 
0.59
 
307
 
258
 
-6.21
 
-0.10
 
276
 
279
 
1.65
 
0.19
 
European Union
296
 
292
 
1.68
 
0.59
 
242
 
194
 
-3.54
 
-0.27
 
275
 
278
 
1.65
 
0.19
 
Russia
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
60
 
59
 
-12.11
 
0.36
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Ukraine
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
2
 
3
 
-13.10
 
2.21
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
AFRICA
1 469
 
1 985
 
5.31
 
1.92
 
148
 
178
 
-0.64
 
1.19
 
1 245
 
1 721
 
5.35
 
1.82
 
Egypt
53
 
107
 
-9.66
 
4.93
 
103
 
100
 
2.11
 
-1.28
 
31
 
42
 
-6.05
 
1.30
 
Ethiopia
46
 
45
 
9.88
 
-0.46
 
11
 
38
 
39.32
 
9.86
 
0
 
0
 
-32.53
 
-1.78
 
Nigeria
52
 
58
 
0.28
 
0.27
 
1
 
1
 
-18.95
 
0.65
 
32
 
31
 
1.54
 
-0.93
 
South Africa
15
 
21
 
6.52
 
1.17
 
14
 
13
 
-6.26
 
1.18
 
10
 
6
 
1.22
 
-1.17
 
ASIA
15 127
 
18 719
 
-1.56
 
1.48
 
6 991
 
8 610
 
1.40
 
1.43
 
2 028
 
1 645
 
-2.46
 
-1.56
 
China 1
5 115
 
5 718
 
-4.65
 
0.63
 
1 029
 
1 216
 
-10.04
 
0.29
 
18
 
11
 
2.30
 
-0.16
 
India
5 904
 
7 877
 
1.80
 
2.36
 
396
 
446
 
16.07
 
2.23
 
1 106
 
860
 
1.18
 
-2.18
 
Indonesia
5
 
6
 
-4.17
 
1.88
 
715
 
1 007
 
5.65
 
2.08
 
1
 
0
 
-16.11
 
..
 
Iran
53
 
47
 
-3.72
 
-2.20
 
56
 
88
 
-0.47
 
4.03
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Japan
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
60
 
55
 
-3.97
 
-0.26
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
63
 
69
 
-3.03
 
-0.86
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
46
 
51
 
-6.30
 
-1.86
 
Korea
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
241
 
230
 
1.27
 
-0.21
 
1
 
0
 
0.00
 
..
 
Malaysia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
87
 
103
 
3.28
 
2.37
 
17
 
11
 
5.70
 
-2.32
 
Pakistan
1 752
 
2 363
 
-1.66
 
1.38
 
464
 
239
 
0.84
 
-7.86
 
33
 
27
 
-17.44
 
2.93
 
Philippines
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
10
 
15
 
-3.27
 
3.48
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Saudi Arabia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Thailand
1
 
1
 
-1.64
 
1.08
 
274
 
294
 
-3.54
 
0.47
 
0
 
0
 
-18.72
 
..
 
Turkey
724
 
1 034
 
5.15
 
2.22
 
812
 
751
 
1.49
 
0.34
 
59
 
52
 
7.89
 
-0.34
 
Viet Nam
1
 
1
 
-22.70
 
1.58
 
1 200
 
2 023
 
21.12
 
2.87
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
OCEANIA
863
 
1 060
 
7.36
 
2.26
 
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
715
 
1 045
 
7.28
 
2.84
 
Australia
862
 
1 059
 
7.37
 
2.26
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
714
 
1 044
 
7.29
 
2.84
 
New Zealand
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
6 220
 
6 967
 
2.26
 
1.03
 
386
 
330
 
-5.94
 
-0.08
 
4 538
 
5 392
 
-0.18
 
1.00
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
17 152
 
21 753
 
-0.86
 
1.76
 
7 397
 
9 057
 
1.05
 
1.41
 
3 342
 
3 996
 
2.18
 
1.84
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
1 182
 
1 608
 
5.88
 
2.04
 
1 481
 
1 944
 
7.63
 
2.91
 
888
 
1 323
 
6.58
 
2.29
 
OECD 2
5 822
 
6 846
 
3.87
 
1.34
 
1 588
 
1 435
 
-0.55
 
0.05
 
3 874
 
4 817
 
0.85
 
1.30
 
BRICS
12 495
 
15 520
 
-1.40
 
1.76
 
1 526
 
1 752
 
-7.33
 
0.74
 
1 884
 
2 080
 
1.73
 
1.97
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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