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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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Cereals

This chapter describes the market situation and highlights the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for world and national cereals markets for the ten-year period 2018-27. Global cereal production is projected to expand by 13% by 2027, accounted for in large part by higher yields. For maize and wheat, the Russian Federation is emerging as a major player on international markets, having surpassed the European Union in 2016 to become the top wheat exporter. For maize, market shares will increase for Brazil, Argentina and the Russian Federation while declining for the United States. Thailand, India, and Viet Nam are expected to remain the major suppliers on international rice markets, while Cambodia and Myanmar are projected to capture a greater share of the global export market. Over the projection period, prices are expected to increase slightly in nominal terms but decline modestly in real terms.

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