1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.31.1 - Butter projections: Production and trade

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.31.1Butter projections: Production and trade
A.31.1Butter projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
11 081
 
14 060
 
2.46
 
2.16
 
834
 
1 024
 
1.97
 
1.93
 
915
 
1 076
 
0.38
 
1.83
 
NORTH AMERICA
931
 
1 107
 
1.80
 
1.63
 
43
 
26
 
11.78
 
-5.74
 
18
 
34
 
-10.25
 
5.75
 
Canada
93
 
118
 
1.33
 
1.00
 
18
 
7
 
15.01
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
-6.82
 
-15.99
 
United States
838
 
990
 
1.86
 
1.71
 
26
 
18
 
10.11
 
-7.32
 
18
 
34
 
-10.27
 
5.95
 
LATIN AMERICA
457
 
537
 
3.61
 
1.64
 
58
 
59
 
0.32
 
0.08
 
44
 
52
 
2.55
 
3.07
 
Argentina
38
 
54
 
-4.34
 
4.72
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
7
 
16
 
-8.63
 
8.14
 
Brazil
100
 
110
 
3.08
 
0.91
 
3
 
3
 
1.77
 
-0.58
 
2
 
1
 
-7.71
 
-0.25
 
Chile
23
 
30
 
3.42
 
2.25
 
5
 
6
 
36.86
 
-0.95
 
4
 
4
 
11.61
 
0.96
 
Colombia
21
 
27
 
0.42
 
2.23
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Mexico
202
 
230
 
8.07
 
1.25
 
30
 
35
 
-1.24
 
1.48
 
12
 
12
 
..
 
..
 
Paraguay
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
4.83
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
2.89
 
0.04
 
EUROPE
2 960
 
3 289
 
1.26
 
1.04
 
119
 
180
 
-2.88
 
3.14
 
296
 
388
 
1.52
 
3.09
 
European Union
2 343
 
2 632
 
1.47
 
1.17
 
4
 
13
 
-28.18
 
0.98
 
187
 
254
 
0.54
 
3.85
 
Russia
314
 
326
 
-0.69
 
0.24
 
108
 
160
 
3.37
 
3.55
 
3
 
2
 
-4.81
 
0.00
 
Ukraine
104
 
125
 
4.26
 
1.54
 
1
 
1
 
-20.23
 
0.53
 
14
 
28
 
31.95
 
4.72
 
AFRICA
312
 
322
 
1.42
 
0.16
 
124
 
162
 
-1.32
 
3.35
 
8
 
7
 
-1.35
 
-1.29
 
Egypt
123
 
130
 
0.10
 
0.46
 
55
 
67
 
1.23
 
2.53
 
1
 
1
 
-19.08
 
-0.44
 
Ethiopia
18
 
21
 
12.78
 
1.93
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Nigeria
13
 
15
 
2.02
 
1.27
 
6
 
9
 
-12.81
 
4.84
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
South Africa
12
 
16
 
0.23
 
3.30
 
5
 
5
 
7.53
 
-1.24
 
4
 
3
 
15.29
 
1.25
 
ASIA
5 700
 
8 027
 
3.20
 
3.03
 
451
 
535
 
4.33
 
1.77
 
37
 
40
 
-0.80
 
0.66
 
China 1
98
 
124
 
-1.20
 
1.50
 
82
 
124
 
21.89
 
2.44
 
1
 
1
 
-13.04
 
1.00
 
India
4 170
 
5 866
 
3.82
 
3.05
 
4
 
3
 
-3.28
 
-3.85
 
8
 
12
 
-4.48
 
4.32
 
Indonesia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
24
 
30
 
11.25
 
1.45
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Iran
212
 
236
 
0.99
 
1.02
 
46
 
54
 
-1.75
 
2.50
 
1
 
1
 
0.34
 
-0.24
 
Japan
63
 
60
 
-2.52
 
-0.36
 
13
 
10
 
18.18
 
-2.34
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
13
 
14
 
-2.17
 
0.57
 
6
 
8
 
-1.41
 
0.72
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Korea
3
 
6
 
0.52
 
8.33
 
8
 
13
 
7.78
 
2.84
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Malaysia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
20
 
21
 
7.27
 
0.33
 
8
 
9
 
14.49
 
-0.33
 
Pakistan
730
 
1 289
 
2.12
 
4.94
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
0.84
 
-1.44
 
Philippines
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
27
 
40
 
5.57
 
2.40
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Saudi Arabia
5
 
4
 
-1.07
 
0.62
 
51
 
52
 
11.73
 
1.24
 
4
 
3
 
6.88
 
-1.23
 
Thailand
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
13
 
13
 
4.19
 
-0.37
 
1
 
1
 
18.13
 
0.37
 
Turkey
209
 
242
 
4.92
 
1.22
 
14
 
3
 
3.63
 
-10.05
 
0
 
0
 
3.52
 
0.90
 
Viet Nam
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
8
 
12
 
-1.62
 
4.69
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
OCEANIA
720
 
777
 
2.59
 
0.74
 
38
 
61
 
6.51
 
3.49
 
513
 
555
 
0.77
 
0.87
 
Australia
109
 
108
 
-2.94
 
-1.90
 
31
 
52
 
8.88
 
3.89
 
25
 
15
 
-13.06
 
-10.47
 
New Zealand
609
 
667
 
3.92
 
1.24
 
2
 
2
 
10.40
 
0.00
 
488
 
540
 
2.15
 
1.42
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
4 737
 
5 294
 
1.46
 
1.07
 
237
 
310
 
0.67
 
1.98
 
831
 
981
 
0.43
 
1.84
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
6 343
 
8 766
 
3.26
 
2.88
 
597
 
714
 
2.73
 
1.91
 
84
 
95
 
0.09
 
1.75
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
184
 
177
 
2.17
 
-0.62
 
15
 
31
 
9.42
 
11.78
 
2
 
2
 
8.48
 
-4.56
 
OECD 2
4 562
 
5 153
 
2.01
 
1.19
 
152
 
162
 
0.99
 
-0.10
 
738
 
864
 
0.20
 
1.83
 
BRICS
4 695
 
6 443
 
3.30
 
2.82
 
202
 
295
 
6.34
 
2.83
 
17
 
19
 
-3.73
 
2.71
 
..
Not available
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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