OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027
The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018
| A.31.2 | Butter projections: Consumption, food | ||||||||
| A.31.2 | Butter projections: Consumption, food | ||||||||
| Calendar year | |||||||||
| | | CONSUMPTION (kt) | Growth (%) 3 | FOOD (kg/cap) | Growth (%) 3 | ||||
Average 2015-17est | 2027 | 2008-17 | 2018-27 | Average 2015-17est | 2027 | 2008-17 | 2018-27 | ||
| | WORLD | 11 005 | 14 008 | 2.60 | 2.18 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| | NORTH AMERICA | 941 | 1 100 | 2.46 | 1.38 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.68 | 0.66 |
| | Canada | 104 | 126 | 2.08 | 1.89 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| | United States | 837 | 974 | 2.51 | 1.31 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.76 | 0.61 |
| | LATIN AMERICA | 477 | 545 | 3.68 | 1.19 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.51 | 0.34 |
| | Argentina | 36 | 38 | 2.16 | 1.25 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.12 | 0.39 |
| | Brazil | 101 | 112 | 3.23 | 0.87 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.30 | 0.27 |
| | Chile | 24 | 32 | 5.39 | 1.77 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 4.45 | 1.09 |
| | Colombia | 21 | 27 | 0.53 | 2.23 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.45 | 1.57 |
| | Mexico | 220 | 253 | 5.69 | 1.32 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.21 | 0.26 |
| | Paraguay | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 0.0 | 0.0 | .. | .. |
| | EUROPE | 2 797 | 3 081 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| | European Union | 2 173 | 2 391 | 1.44 | 0.96 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.28 | 0.90 |
| | Russia | 419 | 484 | -0.02 | 1.22 | 2.9 | 3.4 | -0.10 | 1.38 |
| | Ukraine | 92 | 98 | 1.63 | 0.79 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.13 | 1.33 |
| | AFRICA | 428 | 477 | 0.63 | 1.16 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -1.93 | -1.20 |
| | Egypt | 177 | 195 | 0.77 | 1.13 | 1.9 | 1.7 | -1.34 | -0.47 |
| | Ethiopia | 18 | 21 | 12.73 | 1.93 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -2.60 | -0.33 |
| | Nigeria | 19 | 23 | -6.08 | 2.47 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -8.54 | -0.07 |
| | South Africa | 14 | 18 | -0.34 | 2.22 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -1.67 | 1.18 |
| | ASIA | 6 113 | 8 522 | 3.32 | 2.96 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.25 | 2.21 |
| | China 1 | 179 | 247 | 5.35 | 1.97 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 4.79 | 1.76 |
| | India | 4 167 | 5 857 | 3.81 | 3.04 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.54 | 2.05 |
| | Indonesia | 24 | 30 | 12.17 | 1.47 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 10.78 | 0.56 |
| | Iran | 256 | 290 | 0.48 | 1.29 | 3.2 | 3.3 | -0.73 | 0.54 |
| | Japan | 75 | 69 | -1.22 | -0.66 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -1.13 | -0.32 |
| | Kazakhstan | 19 | 22 | -1.89 | 0.62 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -3.34 | -0.25 |
| | Korea | 11 | 18 | 4.12 | 4.77 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.70 | 4.49 |
| | Malaysia | 12 | 12 | 4.32 | 0.83 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.52 | -0.39 |
| | Pakistan | 730 | 1 288 | 2.12 | 4.94 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 0.03 | 3.18 |
| | Philippines | 27 | 40 | 5.52 | 2.41 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.83 | 0.99 |
| | Saudi Arabia | 52 | 53 | 9.82 | 1.37 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 6.88 | -0.08 |
| | Thailand | 12 | 12 | 3.57 | -0.43 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.14 | -0.51 |
| | Turkey | 223 | 244 | 4.89 | 0.99 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.29 | 0.37 |
| | Viet Nam | 8 | 12 | -1.60 | 4.71 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -2.68 | 3.81 |
| | OCEANIA | 249 | 283 | 6.73 | 1.02 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.07 | -0.23 |
| | Australia | 118 | 145 | 5.81 | 1.53 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.25 | 0.40 |
| | New Zealand | 123 | 129 | 9.84 | 0.49 | 26.5 | 25.3 | 8.67 | -0.32 |
| | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 4 143 | 4 625 | 1.57 | 1.02 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.15 | 0.73 |
| | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 6 861 | 9 384 | 3.28 | 2.81 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.88 | 1.66 |
| | LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 197 | 206 | 2.52 | 0.50 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.13 | -1.72 |
| | OECD 2 | 3 976 | 4 451 | 2.30 | 1.07 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.72 | 0.67 |
| | BRICS | 4 880 | 6 719 | 3.43 | 2.82 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.56 | 2.24 |
Not available | |||||||||
| Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated. | |||||||||
| Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate. | |||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||