1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌3.A1.3World sugar projections
3.A1.3World sugar projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
WORLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
261.9
 
276.3
 
276.2
 
270.8
 
269.5
 
268.8
 
268.9
 
268.7
 
269.1
 
270.4
 
271.4
 
Area
Mha
4.5
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.5
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
Yield
t/ha
58.72
 
59.99
 
60.12
 
60.84
 
61.11
 
61.41
 
61.69
 
61.95
 
62.24
 
62.59
 
62.91
 
Biofuel use
Mt
13.2
 
11.4
 
10.3
 
10.0
 
9.9
 
10.0
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.3
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 844.0
 
1 918.8
 
1 947.2
 
1 977.9
 
1 998.0
 
2 018.0
 
2 044.3
 
2 078.0
 
2 116.6
 
2 157.6
 
2 197.9
 
Area
Mha
27.0
 
27.7
 
27.9
 
28.2
 
28.4
 
28.5
 
28.7
 
29.0
 
29.4
 
29.8
 
30.3
 
Yield
t/ha
68.39
 
69.34
 
69.69
 
70.11
 
70.45
 
70.78
 
71.17
 
71.54
 
71.91
 
72.28
 
72.65
 
Biofuel use
Mt
343.5
 
362.6
 
371.3
 
381.4
 
391.9
 
399.0
 
407.4
 
412.7
 
418.9
 
426.0
 
432.9
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
168.6
 
179.2
 
184.1
 
187.2
 
190.0
 
192.4
 
195.3
 
198.8
 
202.2
 
205.9
 
209.5
 
Consumption
Mt tq
168.3
 
174.3
 
176.7
 
179.8
 
183.0
 
186.5
 
189.7
 
192.9
 
196.3
 
199.7
 
203.3
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
72.8
 
67.1
 
69.8
 
72.5
 
74.8
 
76.1
 
77.0
 
78.1
 
79.3
 
80.7
 
82.3
 
Price, raw sugar 1
USD/t
361.6
 
403.2
 
383.9
 
369.2
 
350.8
 
354.5
 
359.2
 
357.4
 
365.7
 
367.3
 
367.1
 
Price, white sugar 2
USD/t
429.9
 
487.7
 
471.4
 
453.4
 
437.6
 
439.3
 
442.9
 
443.6
 
452.2
 
454.1
 
452.6
 
Price, HFCS 3
USD/t
651.5
 
609.5
 
538.3
 
524.3
 
511.3
 
516.5
 
523.8
 
523.0
 
535.1
 
542.9
 
543.6
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
217.4
 
218.8
 
217.3
 
211.2
 
209.4
 
208.2
 
207.9
 
207.1
 
206.5
 
207.0
 
206.9
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
81.1
 
83.4
 
85.0
 
86.6
 
87.3
 
87.1
 
87.2
 
87.3
 
87.6
 
88.2
 
88.4
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
40.3
 
43.9
 
44.3
 
43.6
 
43.5
 
43.4
 
43.6
 
43.7
 
43.8
 
44.1
 
44.3
 
Consumption
Mt tq
47.6
 
47.8
 
47.8
 
47.7
 
47.8
 
48.0
 
48.2
 
48.4
 
48.6
 
48.8
 
49.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
14.8
 
14.6
 
15.5
 
16.0
 
16.5
 
16.8
 
16.9
 
17.0
 
17.0
 
17.1
 
17.2
 
HFCS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
9.4
 
9.7
 
9.8
 
10.0
 
10.3
 
10.4
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.7
 
Consumption
Mt
8.3
 
8.6
 
8.6
 
8.8
 
9.0
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.3
 
9.3
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
44.5
 
57.5
 
59.0
 
59.6
 
60.1
 
60.6
 
61.0
 
61.7
 
62.5
 
63.4
 
64.5
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 763.0
 
1 835.4
 
1 862.2
 
1 891.3
 
1 910.7
 
1 930.8
 
1 957.1
 
1 990.6
 
2 029.0
 
2 069.4
 
2 109.6
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
128.3
 
135.3
 
139.9
 
143.6
 
146.5
 
149.0
 
151.7
 
155.1
 
158.3
 
161.8
 
165.2
 
Consumption
Mt tq
120.6
 
126.6
 
128.9
 
132.1
 
135.1
 
138.4
 
141.5
 
144.5
 
147.7
 
150.9
 
154.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
58.0
 
52.5
 
54.3
 
56.5
 
58.3
 
59.3
 
60.1
 
61.1
 
62.2
 
63.6
 
65.1
 
HFCS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
3.5
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.1
 
4.2
 
Consumption
Mt
4.5
 
4.7
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.9
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.1
 
5.2
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
OECD 4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
170.1
 
183.6
 
182.7
 
176.8
 
175.1
 
173.9
 
173.3
 
172.0
 
171.2
 
171.6
 
171.5
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
120.3
 
123.1
 
125.1
 
127.2
 
128.3
 
128.3
 
129.3
 
130.3
 
131.3
 
132.4
 
133.3
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
39.5
 
43.4
 
43.9
 
43.2
 
43.2
 
43.1
 
43.2
 
43.3
 
43.5
 
43.7
 
43.9
 
Consumption
Mt tq
44.9
 
45.3
 
45.3
 
45.1
 
45.3
 
45.4
 
45.5
 
45.8
 
46.0
 
46.3
 
46.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
13.1
 
12.7
 
13.5
 
13.8
 
14.2
 
14.3
 
14.4
 
14.5
 
14.7
 
14.8
 
14.9
 
HFCS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
10.6
 
10.9
 
11.0
 
11.3
 
11.5
 
11.7
 
11.7
 
11.8
 
11.8
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
Consumption
Mt
10.3
 
10.6
 
10.7
 
11.0
 
11.2
 
11.4
 
11.4
 
11.5
 
11.5
 
11.6
 
11.6
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
tq : tel quel.
HFCS: High fructose corn syrup.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Raw sugar world price, ICE contract No11 nearby, October/September.
2.
Refined sugar price, White Sugar Futures Contract No. 407, Euronext market, Liffe, London, Europe, October/September.
3.
United States wholesale list price HFCS-55, October/September.
4.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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