1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

English Chinese, Spanish, French

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.2World prices
A.2World prices
  Nominal price
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
CEREALS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 1
USD/t
207.3
 
200.5
 
202.5
 
208.2
 
215.9
 
225.3
 
232.7
 
238.5
 
243.6
 
246.2
 
248.9
 
Maize 2
USD/t
164.4
 
156.5
 
161.1
 
164.9
 
173.5
 
179.4
 
183.8
 
185.5
 
190.2
 
193.6
 
196.7
 
Other coarse grains 3
USD/t
179.4
 
154.6
 
155.6
 
162.3
 
170.2
 
181.1
 
186.8
 
187.8
 
191.9
 
195.3
 
198.3
 
Rice 4
USD/t
375.1
 
389.0
 
393.5
 
398.4
 
400.3
 
405.0
 
407.6
 
409.5
 
411.1
 
412.9
 
415.5
 
Distiller's dry grains 5
USD/t
137.8
 
125.5
 
128.1
 
131.5
 
138.7
 
149.6
 
155.9
 
162.7
 
168.5
 
174.0
 
177.3
 
OILSEEDS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean 6
USD/t
402.2
 
389.7
 
398.2
 
408.6
 
412.0
 
430.6
 
434.0
 
439.6
 
439.5
 
442.2
 
446.1
 
Other oilseeds 7
USD/t
420.0
 
431.3
 
425.0
 
428.3
 
441.7
 
451.4
 
454.4
 
459.0
 
465.8
 
477.3
 
483.2
 
Protein meals 8
USD/t
340.2
 
296.4
 
294.9
 
297.9
 
302.6
 
313.1
 
313.0
 
318.7
 
321.0
 
327.2
 
335.3
 
Vegetable oils 9
USD/t
768.3
 
827.7
 
829.2
 
838.2
 
849.9
 
862.2
 
871.8
 
884.2
 
896.6
 
897.4
 
902.0
 
SWEETENERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Raw sugar 10
USD/t
361.6
 
403.2
 
383.9
 
369.2
 
350.8
 
354.5
 
359.2
 
357.4
 
365.7
 
367.3
 
367.1
 
Refined sugar 11
USD/t
429.9
 
487.7
 
471.4
 
453.4
 
437.6
 
439.3
 
442.9
 
443.6
 
452.2
 
454.1
 
452.6
 
HFCS 12
USD/t
651.5
 
609.5
 
538.3
 
524.3
 
511.3
 
516.5
 
523.8
 
523.0
 
535.1
 
542.9
 
543.6
 
Molasses 13
USD/t
171.8
 
158.4
 
157.2
 
159.7
 
164.2
 
169.0
 
173.2
 
176.6
 
179.5
 
182.2
 
184.6
 
MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef and veal
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 14
USD/t dw
4 378.3
 
3 459.3
 
3 632.7
 
4 037.8
 
4 147.3
 
4 181.7
 
4 306.6
 
4 443.0
 
4 543.9
 
4 586.8
 
4 607.5
 
Price, United States 15
USD/t dw
5 020.1
 
4 084.8
 
4 298.6
 
4 327.2
 
4 263.6
 
4 251.2
 
4 148.4
 
4 090.0
 
3 959.1
 
3 936.9
 
3 983.9
 
Price, Brazil 16
USD/t dw
4 168.7
 
3 200.3
 
3 465.1
 
3 602.1
 
3 604.1
 
3 551.5
 
3 448.2
 
3 430.6
 
3 362.4
 
3 361.8
 
3 389.4
 
Pigmeat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 17
USD/t dw
1 725.9
 
1 656.0
 
1 661.8
 
1 771.6
 
1 769.5
 
1 772.3
 
1 888.4
 
1 939.4
 
1 928.2
 
1 832.6
 
1 912.8
 
Price, United States 18
USD/t dw
1 759.8
 
1 342.1
 
1 489.5
 
1 566.1
 
1 534.8
 
1 508.1
 
1 575.4
 
1 630.7
 
1 586.4
 
1 474.0
 
1 510.4
 
Price, Brazil 19
USD/t dw
2 685.0
 
2 008.6
 
2 278.9
 
2 438.3
 
2 385.5
 
2 348.6
 
2 517.9
 
2 566.8
 
2 494.3
 
2 408.8
 
2 395.8
 
Poultry meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 20
USD/t rtc
2 226.4
 
1 866.1
 
1 919.1
 
1 919.0
 
1 947.4
 
2 000.7
 
2 042.3
 
2 074.5
 
2 101.0
 
2 126.8
 
2 151.2
 
Price, United States 21
USD/t rtc
1 278.6
 
1 125.7
 
1 150.9
 
1 163.2
 
1 186.8
 
1 215.2
 
1 231.3
 
1 240.4
 
1 247.8
 
1 256.4
 
1 267.0
 
Price, Brazil 22
USD/t rtc
1 705.0
 
1 467.6
 
1 522.1
 
1 543.6
 
1 581.0
 
1 623.3
 
1 646.1
 
1 664.9
 
1 677.4
 
1 691.4
 
1 708.7
 
Sheep meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, New Zealand 23
USD/t dw
3 925.2
 
3 663.8
 
3 608.1
 
3 672.4
 
3 731.9
 
3 768.8
 
3 807.7
 
3 844.8
 
3 886.4
 
3 917.2
 
3 938.2
 
FISH AND SEAFOOD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Product traded 24
USD/t
2 837.2
 
2 850.0
 
2 867.5
 
2 826.0
 
2 800.0
 
2 852.5
 
2 896.3
 
2 939.2
 
2 973.6
 
3 008.2
 
3 043.0
 
Aquaculture 25
USD/t
2 095.5
 
2 109.0
 
2 119.1
 
2 119.5
 
2 100.0
 
2 139.4
 
2 172.2
 
2 204.4
 
2 230.2
 
2 286.2
 
2 312.7
 
Capture 26
USD/t
1 568.3
 
1 564.7
 
1 580.6
 
1 577.3
 
1 577.8
 
1 610.6
 
1 631.0
 
1 655.1
 
1 677.2
 
1 699.3
 
1 724.8
 
Meal 27
USD/t
1 592.3
 
1 280.9
 
1 200.3
 
1 252.9
 
1 291.0
 
1 558.6
 
1 372.1
 
1 412.0
 
1 442.0
 
1 487.8
 
1 834.9
 
Oil 28
USD/t
1 808.3
 
1 607.9
 
1 622.9
 
1 641.3
 
1 667.2
 
1 907.2
 
1 720.2
 
1 747.0
 
1 774.4
 
1 794.8
 
2 055.8
 
DAIRY PRODUCTS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter 29
USD/t
3 395.5
 
3 925.0
 
3 736.1
 
3 788.5
 
3 852.2
 
3 935.1
 
3 981.7
 
4 063.3
 
4 129.7
 
4 214.4
 
4 247.9
 
Cheese 30
USD/t
3 633.3
 
3 643.6
 
3 603.7
 
3 700.2
 
3 775.0
 
3 862.6
 
3 945.6
 
4 038.0
 
4 121.2
 
4 209.8
 
4 276.0
 
Skim milk powder 31
USD/t
2 637.3
 
2 522.2
 
2 553.9
 
2 738.6
 
2 859.1
 
2 976.8
 
3 099.8
 
3 217.2
 
3 307.1
 
3 424.3
 
3 529.6
 
Whole milk powder 32
USD/t
2 888.5
 
3 120.2
 
3 066.2
 
3 207.3
 
3 302.0
 
3 416.6
 
3 512.6
 
3 613.2
 
3 695.9
 
3 803.3
 
3 883.4
 
Whey powder 33
USD/t
981.1
 
948.0
 
977.6
 
1 031.2
 
1 074.9
 
1 126.5
 
1 157.3
 
1 204.7
 
1 234.0
 
1 278.7
 
1 319.3
 
Casein 34
USD/t
7 404.3
 
7 138.3
 
7 268.3
 
7 669.3
 
7 990.3
 
8 282.9
 
8 588.0
 
8 873.3
 
9 095.6
 
9 390.2
 
9 649.3
 
BIOFUEL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol 35
USD/hl
51.0
 
44.5
 
46.0
 
47.3
 
48.4
 
49.7
 
50.9
 
51.9
 
53.2
 
54.5
 
55.3
 
Biodiesel 36
USD/hl
86.9
 
86.1
 
88.0
 
89.4
 
90.4
 
90.9
 
91.3
 
92.1
 
92.7
 
93.2
 
93.6
 
COTTON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cotton 37
USD/t
1 582.8
 
1 480.7
 
1 467.2
 
1 442.1
 
1 460.5
 
1 546.7
 
1 568.2
 
1 572.3
 
1 572.5
 
1 573.3
 
1 576.0
 
ROOTS AND TUBERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Roots and tubers 38
USD/t
408.4
 
374.6
 
379.6
 
392.4
 
409.9
 
421.0
 
433.7
 
434.8
 
443.3
 
450.2
 
455.0
 
USA GDP Deflator (2010=1)
Index
1.088
 
1.121
 
1.148
 
1.174
 
1.199
 
1.225
 
1.251
 
1.278
 
1.305
 
1.332
 
1.361
 
A.2World prices(cont.)
  Real price
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
CEREALS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 1
USD/t
209.3
 
178.8
 
176.3
 
177.3
 
180.0
 
183.9
 
186.0
 
186.7
 
186.7
 
184.8
 
182.9
 
Maize 2
USD/t
151.2
 
139.5
 
140.3
 
140.4
 
144.6
 
146.4
 
146.9
 
145.2
 
145.7
 
145.3
 
144.6
 
Other coarse grains 3
USD/t
165.1
 
137.9
 
135.4
 
138.2
 
141.9
 
147.8
 
149.3
 
147.0
 
147.1
 
146.6
 
145.7
 
Rice 4
USD/t
378.6
 
346.9
 
342.6
 
339.3
 
333.8
 
330.6
 
325.8
 
320.5
 
315.1
 
309.9
 
305.3
 
Distiller's dry grains 5
USD/t
126.8
 
112.0
 
111.6
 
112.0
 
115.7
 
122.1
 
124.6
 
127.4
 
129.1
 
130.6
 
130.3
 
OILSEEDS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean 6
USD/t
369.8
 
347.5
 
346.7
 
347.9
 
343.5
 
351.4
 
346.9
 
344.1
 
336.8
 
331.8
 
327.8
 
Other oilseeds 7
USD/t
386.1
 
384.6
 
370.1
 
364.7
 
368.3
 
368.5
 
363.2
 
359.2
 
357.0
 
358.2
 
355.1
 
Protein meals 8
USD/t
313.0
 
264.3
 
256.8
 
253.7
 
252.3
 
255.5
 
250.1
 
249.4
 
246.0
 
245.5
 
246.4
 
Vegetable oils 9
USD/t
706.2
 
738.1
 
722.0
 
713.8
 
708.7
 
703.7
 
696.7
 
692.0
 
687.2
 
673.5
 
662.9
 
SWEETENERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Raw sugar 10
USD/t
332.1
 
359.6
 
334.3
 
314.4
 
292.5
 
289.4
 
287.1
 
279.7
 
280.2
 
275.6
 
269.8
 
Refined sugar 11
USD/t
394.8
 
434.9
 
410.5
 
386.1
 
364.9
 
358.5
 
354.0
 
347.1
 
346.6
 
340.8
 
332.6
 
HFCS 12
USD/t
598.7
 
543.5
 
468.7
 
446.5
 
426.4
 
421.6
 
418.6
 
409.3
 
410.1
 
407.5
 
399.5
 
Molasses 13
USD/t
158.2
 
141.3
 
136.8
 
136.0
 
136.9
 
138.0
 
138.4
 
138.2
 
137.6
 
136.7
 
135.6
 
MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef and veal
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 14
USD/t dw
4 029.1
 
3 084.8
 
3 163.0
 
3 438.4
 
3 458.4
 
3 412.9
 
3 441.9
 
3 477.2
 
3 482.3
 
3 442.2
 
3 386.0
 
Price, United States 15
USD/t dw
4 620.9
 
3 642.5
 
3 742.9
 
3 684.9
 
3 555.4
 
3 469.6
 
3 315.4
 
3 200.9
 
3 034.2
 
2 954.6
 
2 927.8
 
Price, Brazil 16
USD/t pw
3 835.8
 
2 853.8
 
3 017.1
 
3 067.4
 
3 005.4
 
2 898.6
 
2 755.9
 
2 684.9
 
2 576.9
 
2 523.0
 
2 490.9
 
Pigmeat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 17
USD/t dw
1 589.0
 
1 476.7
 
1 447.0
 
1 508.7
 
1 475.5
 
1 446.5
 
1 509.2
 
1 517.8
 
1 477.7
 
1 375.3
 
1 405.7
 
Price, United States 18
USD/t dw
1 621.6
 
1 196.8
 
1 296.9
 
1 333.6
 
1 279.9
 
1 230.8
 
1 259.1
 
1 276.3
 
1 215.8
 
1 106.2
 
1 110.0
 
Price, Brazil 19
USD/t dw
2 473.8
 
1 791.1
 
1 984.2
 
2 076.4
 
1 989.2
 
1 916.8
 
2 012.3
 
2 008.9
 
1 911.6
 
1 807.7
 
1 760.6
 
Poultry meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 20
USD/t rtc
2 049.5
 
1 664.1
 
1 671.0
 
1 634.2
 
1 623.9
 
1 632.9
 
1 632.3
 
1 623.5
 
1 610.2
 
1 596.1
 
1 580.9
 
Price, United States 21
USD/t rtc
1 176.8
 
1 003.8
 
1 002.1
 
990.5
 
989.6
 
991.8
 
984.0
 
970.8
 
956.3
 
942.9
 
931.1
 
Price, Brazil 22
USD/t rtc
1 569.4
 
1 308.7
 
1 325.3
 
1 314.4
 
1 318.3
 
1 324.9
 
1 315.6
 
1 303.0
 
1 285.5
 
1 269.3
 
1 255.7
 
Sheep meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, New Zealand 23
USD/t dw
3 613.0
 
3 267.1
 
3 141.6
 
3 127.3
 
3 112.0
 
3 075.9
 
3 043.1
 
3 009.0
 
2 978.4
 
2 939.8
 
2 894.2
 
FISH AND SEAFOOD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Product traded 24
USD/t
2 837.2
 
2 541.4
 
2 496.8
 
2 406.5
 
2 334.9
 
2 328.1
 
2 314.7
 
2 300.3
 
2 278.9
 
2 257.6
 
2 236.3
 
Aquaculture 25
USD/t
2 095.5
 
1 880.6
 
1 845.1
 
1 804.9
 
1 751.2
 
1 746.1
 
1 736.0
 
1 725.2
 
1 709.2
 
1 715.8
 
1 699.6
 
Capture 26
USD/t
1 568.3
 
1 395.3
 
1 376.3
 
1 343.1
 
1 315.7
 
1 314.5
 
1 303.5
 
1 295.3
 
1 285.4
 
1 275.3
 
1 267.6
 
Meal 27
USD/t
1 592.3
 
1 142.2
 
1 045.1
 
1 066.9
 
1 076.5
 
1 272.1
 
1 096.6
 
1 105.1
 
1 105.1
 
1 116.6
 
1 348.4
 
Oil 28
USD/t
1 808.3
 
1 433.8
 
1 413.1
 
1 397.6
 
1 390.3
 
1 556.6
 
1 374.8
 
1 367.3
 
1 359.9
 
1 346.9
 
1 510.8
 
DAIRY PRODUCTS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter 29
USD/t
3 124.2
 
3 500.0
 
3 253.1
 
3 226.1
 
3 212.3
 
3 211.6
 
3 182.2
 
3 180.1
 
3 164.9
 
3 162.8
 
3 121.7
 
Cheese 30
USD/t
3 346.1
 
3 249.1
 
3 137.8
 
3 150.9
 
3 147.9
 
3 152.5
 
3 153.4
 
3 160.2
 
3 158.4
 
3 159.4
 
3 142.4
 
Skim milk powder 31
USD/t
2 431.5
 
2 249.1
 
2 223.7
 
2 332.1
 
2 384.2
 
2 429.6
 
2 477.4
 
2 517.8
 
2 534.5
 
2 569.8
 
2 593.9
 
Whole milk powder 32
USD/t
2 661.0
 
2 782.3
 
2 669.8
 
2 731.2
 
2 753.4
 
2 788.5
 
2 807.3
 
2 827.8
 
2 832.4
 
2 854.3
 
2 853.9
 
Whey powder 33
USD/t
904.2
 
845.3
 
851.2
 
878.2
 
896.4
 
919.4
 
924.9
 
942.9
 
945.7
 
959.6
 
969.6
 
Casein 34
USD/t
6 823.3
 
6 365.4
 
6 328.6
 
6 530.9
 
6 663.0
 
6 760.2
 
6 863.7
 
6 944.4
 
6 970.6
 
7 047.0
 
7 091.2
 
BIOFUEL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol 35
USD/hl
47.0
 
39.7
 
40.1
 
40.3
 
40.4
 
40.5
 
40.7
 
40.6
 
40.8
 
40.9
 
40.7
 
Biodiesel 36
USD/hl
79.9
 
76.8
 
76.6
 
76.1
 
75.4
 
74.2
 
73.0
 
72.0
 
71.0
 
70.0
 
68.8
 
COTTON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cotton 37
USD/t
1 455.2
 
1 320.3
 
1 277.5
 
1 228.1
 
1 217.9
 
1 262.3
 
1 253.3
 
1 230.5
 
1 205.1
 
1 180.7
 
1 158.2
 
ROOTS AND TUBERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Roots and tubers 38
USD/t
375.8
 
334.1
 
330.5
 
334.2
 
341.8
 
343.6
 
346.7
 
340.3
 
339.7
 
337.9
 
334.4
 
Note: This table is a compilation of price information presented in the detailed commodity tables further in this annex. Prices for crops are on marketing year basis and those for products on calendar year basis. See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May).
2.
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August).
3.
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen.
4.
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December).
5.
Wholesale price, Central Illinois.
6.
Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam.
7.
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg.
8.
Weighted average meal price, European port.
9.
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port.
10.
Raw sugar world price, ICE contract No11 nearby, October/September.
11.
Refined sugar price,Euronext,Liffe,Contract No. 407 London,Europe, October/September.
12.
United States wholesale list price HFCS-55, October/September.
13.
Unit import price, Europe (October/September).
14.
EU average beef producer price.
15.
Choice steers, 1100-1300 lb lw, Nebraska - lw to dw conversion factor 0.63.
16.
Brazil: frozen beef, export unit value, product weight.
17.
EU average pigmeat producer price.
18.
Barrows and gilts, No. 1-3, 230-250 lb lw, Iowa/South Minnesota - lw to dw conversion factor 0.74.
19.
Brazil: frozen pigmeat, export unit value, product weight.
20.
EU average producer price.
21.
Wholesale weighted average broiler price 12 cities.
22.
Brazil: export unit value for chicken (FOB), product weight.
23.
Lamb schedule price, all grade average.
24.
World unit value of trade (sum of exports and imports).
25.
World unit value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis).
26.
FAO estimated value of world ex-vessel value of capture fisheries production excluding for reduction.
27.
Fishmeal, 64-65% protein, Hamburg, Germany.
28.
Fish oil any origin, N.W. Europe.
29.
FOB export price, butter, 82% butterfat, Oceania.
30.
FOB export price, cheddar cheese, 39% moisture, Oceania.
31.
FOB export price, non-fat dry milk, 1.25% butterfat, Oceania.
32.
FOB export price, WMP 26% butterfat, Oceania.
33.
FOB export price, sweet whey non-hygroscopic, Western Europe.
34.
Export price, New Zealand.
35.
Wholesale price, United States, Omaha.
36.
Producer price Germany net of biodiesel tariff and energy tax.
37.
Cotlook A index, Middling 1 3/32", c.f.r. far Eastern ports (August/July).
38.
Thailand, Bangkok, Cassava (flour), wholesale.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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