1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

Table 3.A1.2 - World oilseed projections

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌3.A1.2World oilseed projections
3.A1.2World oilseed projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
SOYBEAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
325.6
 
338.6
 
344.6
 
350.7
 
358.2
 
364.7
 
372.9
 
378.7
 
386.7
 
393.1
 
401.3
 
Consumption
Mt
322.2
 
341.9
 
347.0
 
352.0
 
358.6
 
365.3
 
372.5
 
379.0
 
386.2
 
393.3
 
401.1
 
Crush
Mt
288.1
 
306.3
 
310.8
 
315.5
 
321.6
 
327.9
 
334.6
 
340.6
 
347.5
 
354.1
 
361.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
36.3
 
33.5
 
31.1
 
29.8
 
29.4
 
28.8
 
29.1
 
28.8
 
29.3
 
29.0
 
29.2
 
Price 1
USD/t
402.2
 
389.7
 
398.2
 
408.6
 
412.0
 
430.6
 
434.0
 
439.6
 
439.5
 
442.2
 
446.1
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
127.3
 
128.0
 
128.9
 
129.7
 
131.6
 
133.3
 
135.2
 
136.4
 
138.2
 
139.6
 
141.1
 
Consumption
Mt
86.7
 
88.2
 
89.0
 
89.2
 
90.4
 
91.5
 
92.8
 
93.5
 
94.7
 
95.6
 
97.1
 
Crush
Mt
77.7
 
79.6
 
80.3
 
80.6
 
81.7
 
82.8
 
84.0
 
84.8
 
86.0
 
86.9
 
88.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
11.3
 
13.2
 
11.4
 
10.6
 
10.3
 
10.3
 
10.6
 
10.7
 
11.2
 
11.2
 
11.7
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
198.3
 
210.7
 
215.7
 
220.9
 
226.6
 
231.4
 
237.7
 
242.3
 
248.4
 
253.4
 
260.2
 
Consumption
Mt
235.5
 
253.7
 
258.0
 
262.8
 
268.2
 
273.8
 
279.8
 
285.5
 
291.5
 
297.7
 
304.0
 
Crush
Mt
210.4
 
226.7
 
230.5
 
234.9
 
239.9
 
245.1
 
250.5
 
255.8
 
261.4
 
267.2
 
273.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
25.0
 
20.3
 
19.7
 
19.2
 
19.0
 
18.5
 
18.5
 
18.2
 
18.1
 
17.8
 
17.6
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
119.6
 
119.4
 
120.1
 
120.7
 
122.3
 
123.7
 
125.3
 
126.3
 
127.9
 
129.0
 
130.2
 
Consumption
Mt
87.5
 
89.1
 
89.8
 
89.9
 
91.1
 
92.0
 
93.1
 
93.8
 
94.9
 
95.8
 
97.2
 
Crush
Mt
78.4
 
80.3
 
81.0
 
81.1
 
82.2
 
83.2
 
84.3
 
84.9
 
86.1
 
86.9
 
88.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
11.2
 
12.9
 
11.1
 
10.3
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.3
 
10.4
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
11.3
 
OTHER OILSEEDS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
139.9
 
146.0
 
147.7
 
149.4
 
151.1
 
152.7
 
154.3
 
156.3
 
158.0
 
159.3
 
161.2
 
Consumption
Mt
141.1
 
145.2
 
147.5
 
149.6
 
151.4
 
152.9
 
154.4
 
156.2
 
158.0
 
159.5
 
161.0
 
Crush
Mt
119.5
 
123.2
 
125.4
 
127.4
 
129.1
 
130.6
 
131.9
 
133.6
 
135.2
 
136.6
 
138.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
8.1
 
8.2
 
8.4
 
8.2
 
7.9
 
7.8
 
7.7
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.6
 
7.8
 
Price 3
USD/t
420.0
 
431.3
 
425.0
 
428.3
 
441.7
 
451.4
 
454.4
 
459.0
 
465.8
 
477.3
 
483.2
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
84.3
 
88.1
 
89.1
 
90.3
 
91.4
 
92.5
 
93.4
 
94.9
 
96.0
 
96.7
 
98.0
 
Consumption
Mt
76.6
 
79.7
 
81.1
 
82.2
 
82.9
 
83.6
 
84.3
 
85.2
 
86.0
 
86.7
 
87.4
 
Crush
Mt
69.5
 
72.5
 
73.8
 
74.7
 
75.3
 
76.0
 
76.5
 
77.3
 
78.0
 
78.7
 
79.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
6.2
 
6.5
 
6.7
 
6.5
 
6.2
 
6.0
 
5.9
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
5.8
 
6.0
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
55.6
 
57.9
 
58.6
 
59.1
 
59.7
 
60.2
 
60.9
 
61.4
 
62.0
 
62.6
 
63.3
 
Consumption
Mt
64.6
 
65.4
 
66.4
 
67.4
 
68.5
 
69.2
 
70.1
 
71.1
 
72.0
 
72.8
 
73.7
 
Crush
Mt
50.0
 
50.7
 
51.7
 
52.7
 
53.8
 
54.6
 
55.4
 
56.3
 
57.2
 
58.0
 
58.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
1.9
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
57.9
 
58.6
 
59.0
 
59.5
 
59.9
 
60.3
 
60.5
 
61.2
 
61.6
 
61.5
 
62.0
 
Consumption
Mt
54.4
 
54.6
 
55.5
 
56.0
 
56.2
 
56.4
 
56.5
 
56.8
 
57.0
 
57.1
 
57.1
 
Crush
Mt
49.3
 
49.6
 
50.4
 
50.8
 
50.9
 
51.1
 
51.2
 
51.4
 
51.6
 
51.7
 
51.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
5.4
 
5.6
 
5.7
 
5.5
 
5.3
 
5.1
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
5.0
 
PROTEIN MEALS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
314.5
 
331.2
 
335.8
 
340.3
 
346.1
 
352.2
 
358.6
 
364.6
 
371.2
 
377.5
 
384.3
 
Consumption
Mt
308.8
 
330.1
 
335.0
 
340.5
 
346.4
 
352.5
 
358.7
 
364.8
 
371.3
 
377.5
 
384.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
16.0
 
16.4
 
17.1
 
16.9
 
16.6
 
16.3
 
16.2
 
16.0
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.9
 
Price 4
USD/t
340.2
 
296.4
 
294.9
 
297.9
 
302.6
 
313.1
 
313.0
 
318.7
 
321.0
 
327.2
 
335.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
101.2
 
104.3
 
105.2
 
105.7
 
106.9
 
108.1
 
109.4
 
110.4
 
111.7
 
112.8
 
114.0
 
Consumption
Mt
116.8
 
122.0
 
123.0
 
123.7
 
124.8
 
125.7
 
126.8
 
127.8
 
128.9
 
129.9
 
130.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
213.3
 
226.8
 
230.5
 
234.6
 
239.3
 
244.1
 
249.2
 
254.2
 
259.5
 
264.8
 
270.2
 
Consumption
Mt
192.0
 
208.1
 
212.0
 
216.8
 
221.6
 
226.8
 
231.9
 
237.1
 
242.4
 
247.7
 
253.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
14.2
 
14.7
 
15.4
 
15.2
 
14.9
 
14.6
 
14.5
 
14.3
 
14.1
 
14.1
 
14.2
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
94.0
 
95.9
 
96.6
 
96.7
 
97.7
 
98.6
 
99.6
 
100.3
 
101.4
 
102.2
 
103.2
 
Consumption
Mt
122.2
 
128.1
 
129.2
 
129.9
 
131.2
 
132.1
 
133.2
 
134.1
 
135.3
 
136.3
 
137.3
 
Closing stocks
Mt
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
VEGETABLE OILS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
179.0
 
189.9
 
193.2
 
196.4
 
199.6
 
202.8
 
206.0
 
209.3
 
212.9
 
216.4
 
219.8
 
of which palm oil
Mt
61.8
 
66.9
 
68.4
 
69.9
 
71.2
 
72.5
 
73.7
 
75.1
 
76.5
 
77.9
 
79.3
 
Consumption
Mt
180.0
 
189.5
 
192.6
 
196.1
 
199.5
 
202.6
 
205.8
 
209.1
 
212.7
 
216.0
 
219.5
 
Food
Mt
141.4
 
147.8
 
150.1
 
153.0
 
156.2
 
159.3
 
162.4
 
165.5
 
168.8
 
171.9
 
175.2
 
Biofuel
Mt
23.9
 
26.2
 
26.8
 
27.1
 
27.0
 
26.7
 
26.6
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
Exports
Mt
75.3
 
79.1
 
80.2
 
81.6
 
82.7
 
84.1
 
85.5
 
87.0
 
88.6
 
90.0
 
91.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
22.7
 
21.7
 
22.2
 
22.5
 
22.5
 
22.7
 
22.8
 
23.1
 
23.3
 
23.7
 
24.0
 
Price 5
USD/t
768.3
 
827.7
 
829.2
 
838.2
 
849.9
 
862.2
 
871.8
 
884.2
 
896.6
 
897.4
 
902.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
46.0
 
47.7
 
48.2
 
48.5
 
49.0
 
49.5
 
50.0
 
50.4
 
51.0
 
51.4
 
51.9
 
Consumption
Mt
51.2
 
52.0
 
51.9
 
52.1
 
52.2
 
52.5
 
52.6
 
52.7
 
52.8
 
52.7
 
52.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
132.9
 
142.2
 
145.0
 
147.8
 
150.6
 
153.3
 
156.0
 
158.9
 
162.0
 
164.9
 
167.9
 
Consumption
Mt
128.7
 
137.5
 
140.7
 
144.0
 
147.3
 
150.2
 
153.3
 
156.4
 
159.8
 
163.3
 
166.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
18.3
 
17.5
 
18.0
 
18.4
 
18.6
 
18.7
 
18.9
 
19.1
 
19.4
 
19.7
 
20.0
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
37.9
 
38.3
 
38.7
 
38.8
 
39.0
 
39.3
 
39.6
 
39.8
 
40.1
 
40.4
 
40.6
 
Consumption
Mt
50.8
 
51.7
 
51.8
 
52.0
 
52.2
 
52.5
 
52.7
 
52.9
 
53.1
 
53.1
 
53.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
3.8
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg.
4.
Weighted average protein meal, European port.
5.
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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