OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
From Chapter:
Commodity snapshots
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
| 3.A1.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| 3.A1.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2014-16est | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| | SOYBEAN | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 325.6 | 338.6 | 344.6 | 350.7 | 358.2 | 364.7 | 372.9 | 378.7 | 386.7 | 393.1 | 401.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 322.2 | 341.9 | 347.0 | 352.0 | 358.6 | 365.3 | 372.5 | 379.0 | 386.2 | 393.3 | 401.1 |
| | Crush | Mt | 288.1 | 306.3 | 310.8 | 315.5 | 321.6 | 327.9 | 334.6 | 340.6 | 347.5 | 354.1 | 361.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 36.3 | 33.5 | 31.1 | 29.8 | 29.4 | 28.8 | 29.1 | 28.8 | 29.3 | 29.0 | 29.2 |
| | Price 1 | USD/t | 402.2 | 389.7 | 398.2 | 408.6 | 412.0 | 430.6 | 434.0 | 439.6 | 439.5 | 442.2 | 446.1 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 127.3 | 128.0 | 128.9 | 129.7 | 131.6 | 133.3 | 135.2 | 136.4 | 138.2 | 139.6 | 141.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 86.7 | 88.2 | 89.0 | 89.2 | 90.4 | 91.5 | 92.8 | 93.5 | 94.7 | 95.6 | 97.1 |
| | Crush | Mt | 77.7 | 79.6 | 80.3 | 80.6 | 81.7 | 82.8 | 84.0 | 84.8 | 86.0 | 86.9 | 88.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 11.3 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 198.3 | 210.7 | 215.7 | 220.9 | 226.6 | 231.4 | 237.7 | 242.3 | 248.4 | 253.4 | 260.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 235.5 | 253.7 | 258.0 | 262.8 | 268.2 | 273.8 | 279.8 | 285.5 | 291.5 | 297.7 | 304.0 |
| | Crush | Mt | 210.4 | 226.7 | 230.5 | 234.9 | 239.9 | 245.1 | 250.5 | 255.8 | 261.4 | 267.2 | 273.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 25.0 | 20.3 | 19.7 | 19.2 | 19.0 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 17.8 | 17.6 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 119.6 | 119.4 | 120.1 | 120.7 | 122.3 | 123.7 | 125.3 | 126.3 | 127.9 | 129.0 | 130.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 87.5 | 89.1 | 89.8 | 89.9 | 91.1 | 92.0 | 93.1 | 93.8 | 94.9 | 95.8 | 97.2 |
| | Crush | Mt | 78.4 | 80.3 | 81.0 | 81.1 | 82.2 | 83.2 | 84.3 | 84.9 | 86.1 | 86.9 | 88.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 11.2 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| | OTHER OILSEEDS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 139.9 | 146.0 | 147.7 | 149.4 | 151.1 | 152.7 | 154.3 | 156.3 | 158.0 | 159.3 | 161.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 141.1 | 145.2 | 147.5 | 149.6 | 151.4 | 152.9 | 154.4 | 156.2 | 158.0 | 159.5 | 161.0 |
| | Crush | Mt | 119.5 | 123.2 | 125.4 | 127.4 | 129.1 | 130.6 | 131.9 | 133.6 | 135.2 | 136.6 | 138.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
| | Price 3 | USD/t | 420.0 | 431.3 | 425.0 | 428.3 | 441.7 | 451.4 | 454.4 | 459.0 | 465.8 | 477.3 | 483.2 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 84.3 | 88.1 | 89.1 | 90.3 | 91.4 | 92.5 | 93.4 | 94.9 | 96.0 | 96.7 | 98.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 76.6 | 79.7 | 81.1 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 83.6 | 84.3 | 85.2 | 86.0 | 86.7 | 87.4 |
| | Crush | Mt | 69.5 | 72.5 | 73.8 | 74.7 | 75.3 | 76.0 | 76.5 | 77.3 | 78.0 | 78.7 | 79.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 55.6 | 57.9 | 58.6 | 59.1 | 59.7 | 60.2 | 60.9 | 61.4 | 62.0 | 62.6 | 63.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 64.6 | 65.4 | 66.4 | 67.4 | 68.5 | 69.2 | 70.1 | 71.1 | 72.0 | 72.8 | 73.7 |
| | Crush | Mt | 50.0 | 50.7 | 51.7 | 52.7 | 53.8 | 54.6 | 55.4 | 56.3 | 57.2 | 58.0 | 58.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 57.9 | 58.6 | 59.0 | 59.5 | 59.9 | 60.3 | 60.5 | 61.2 | 61.6 | 61.5 | 62.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 54.4 | 54.6 | 55.5 | 56.0 | 56.2 | 56.4 | 56.5 | 56.8 | 57.0 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
| | Crush | Mt | 49.3 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 50.8 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 51.2 | 51.4 | 51.6 | 51.7 | 51.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| | PROTEIN MEALS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 314.5 | 331.2 | 335.8 | 340.3 | 346.1 | 352.2 | 358.6 | 364.6 | 371.2 | 377.5 | 384.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 308.8 | 330.1 | 335.0 | 340.5 | 346.4 | 352.5 | 358.7 | 364.8 | 371.3 | 377.5 | 384.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 16.0 | 16.4 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 16.6 | 16.3 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.9 |
| | Price 4 | USD/t | 340.2 | 296.4 | 294.9 | 297.9 | 302.6 | 313.1 | 313.0 | 318.7 | 321.0 | 327.2 | 335.3 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 101.2 | 104.3 | 105.2 | 105.7 | 106.9 | 108.1 | 109.4 | 110.4 | 111.7 | 112.8 | 114.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 116.8 | 122.0 | 123.0 | 123.7 | 124.8 | 125.7 | 126.8 | 127.8 | 128.9 | 129.9 | 130.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 213.3 | 226.8 | 230.5 | 234.6 | 239.3 | 244.1 | 249.2 | 254.2 | 259.5 | 264.8 | 270.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 192.0 | 208.1 | 212.0 | 216.8 | 221.6 | 226.8 | 231.9 | 237.1 | 242.4 | 247.7 | 253.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 14.2 | 14.7 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.2 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 94.0 | 95.9 | 96.6 | 96.7 | 97.7 | 98.6 | 99.6 | 100.3 | 101.4 | 102.2 | 103.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 122.2 | 128.1 | 129.2 | 129.9 | 131.2 | 132.1 | 133.2 | 134.1 | 135.3 | 136.3 | 137.3 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| | VEGETABLE OILS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 179.0 | 189.9 | 193.2 | 196.4 | 199.6 | 202.8 | 206.0 | 209.3 | 212.9 | 216.4 | 219.8 |
| | of which palm oil | Mt | 61.8 | 66.9 | 68.4 | 69.9 | 71.2 | 72.5 | 73.7 | 75.1 | 76.5 | 77.9 | 79.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 180.0 | 189.5 | 192.6 | 196.1 | 199.5 | 202.6 | 205.8 | 209.1 | 212.7 | 216.0 | 219.5 |
| | Food | Mt | 141.4 | 147.8 | 150.1 | 153.0 | 156.2 | 159.3 | 162.4 | 165.5 | 168.8 | 171.9 | 175.2 |
| | Biofuel | Mt | 23.9 | 26.2 | 26.8 | 27.1 | 27.0 | 26.7 | 26.6 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.4 | 26.4 |
| | Exports | Mt | 75.3 | 79.1 | 80.2 | 81.6 | 82.7 | 84.1 | 85.5 | 87.0 | 88.6 | 90.0 | 91.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 22.7 | 21.7 | 22.2 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.7 | 22.8 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 24.0 |
| | Price 5 | USD/t | 768.3 | 827.7 | 829.2 | 838.2 | 849.9 | 862.2 | 871.8 | 884.2 | 896.6 | 897.4 | 902.0 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 46.0 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 48.5 | 49.0 | 49.5 | 50.0 | 50.4 | 51.0 | 51.4 | 51.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 51.2 | 52.0 | 51.9 | 52.1 | 52.2 | 52.5 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 52.8 | 52.7 | 52.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 132.9 | 142.2 | 145.0 | 147.8 | 150.6 | 153.3 | 156.0 | 158.9 | 162.0 | 164.9 | 167.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 128.7 | 137.5 | 140.7 | 144.0 | 147.3 | 150.2 | 153.3 | 156.4 | 159.8 | 163.3 | 166.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 18.3 | 17.5 | 18.0 | 18.4 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 18.9 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 19.7 | 20.0 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 37.9 | 38.3 | 38.7 | 38.8 | 39.0 | 39.3 | 39.6 | 39.8 | 40.1 | 40.4 | 40.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 50.8 | 51.7 | 51.8 | 52.0 | 52.2 | 52.5 | 52.7 | 52.9 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
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Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg. | |||||||||||||
Weighted average protein meal, European port. | |||||||||||||
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port. | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||