1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌3.A1.4World meat projections
3.A1.4World meat projections
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
WORLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BEEF AND VEAL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
68 471
 
69 942
 
70 652
 
71 187
 
71 854
 
72 621
 
73 400
 
74 146
 
74 766
 
75 496
 
76 341
 
Consumption
kt cwe
67 538
 
69 723
 
70 371
 
70 898
 
71 557
 
72 312
 
73 090
 
73 843
 
74 464
 
75 196
 
76 041
 
PIGMEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
116 907
 
117 975
 
118 639
 
120 090
 
121 441
 
122 515
 
123 299
 
124 531
 
125 683
 
126 685
 
127 526
 
Consumption
kt cwe
116 912
 
117 931
 
118 653
 
120 092
 
121 437
 
122 513
 
123 298
 
124 525
 
125 677
 
126 679
 
127 521
 
POULTRY MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt rtc
113 875
 
118 080
 
119 205
 
120 885
 
122 461
 
124 036
 
125 608
 
127 196
 
128 737
 
130 256
 
131 609
 
Consumption
kt rtc
113 228
 
118 081
 
119 208
 
120 887
 
122 463
 
124 036
 
125 605
 
127 192
 
128 734
 
130 254
 
131 607
 
SHEEP MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
14 318
 
14 711
 
15 045
 
15 343
 
15 760
 
16 103
 
16 405
 
16 719
 
16 978
 
17 237
 
17 515
 
Consumption
kt cwe
14 288
 
14 712
 
15 052
 
15 354
 
15 770
 
16 114
 
16 410
 
16 715
 
16 976
 
17 238
 
17 515
 
TOTAL MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per capita consumption 1
kg rwt
34.1
 
34.3
 
34.2
 
34.3
 
34.4
 
34.4
 
34.4
 
34.5
 
34.5
 
34.6
 
34.6
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BEEF AND VEAL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
29 428
 
30 024
 
30 240
 
30 223
 
30 259
 
30 337
 
30 458
 
30 636
 
30 739
 
30 880
 
31 045
 
Consumption
kt cwe
28 347
 
29 025
 
29 137
 
29 181
 
29 276
 
29 331
 
29 458
 
29 650
 
29 781
 
29 930
 
30 096
 
PIGMEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
43 006
 
44 562
 
44 036
 
44 182
 
44 538
 
44 760
 
44 746
 
45 036
 
45 347
 
45 540
 
45 596
 
Consumption
kt cwe
39 989
 
41 151
 
40 854
 
41 058
 
41 455
 
41 634
 
41 553
 
41 776
 
42 041
 
42 170
 
42 140
 
POULTRY MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt rtc
47 328
 
49 261
 
49 364
 
49 939
 
50 466
 
50 932
 
51 361
 
51 810
 
52 173
 
52 520
 
52 756
 
Consumption
kt rtc
44 873
 
46 983
 
47 004
 
47 438
 
47 828
 
48 127
 
48 440
 
48 735
 
48 997
 
49 215
 
49 343
 
SHEEP MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
3 393
 
3 348
 
3 385
 
3 429
 
3 462
 
3 496
 
3 534
 
3 572
 
3 600
 
3 628
 
3 662
 
Consumption
kt cwe
2 699
 
2 732
 
2 771
 
2 795
 
2 816
 
2 840
 
2 857
 
2 875
 
2 893
 
2 912
 
2 934
 
TOTAL MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per capita consumption 1
kg rwt
66.4
 
68.3
 
68.0
 
68.2
 
68.5
 
68.7
 
68.7
 
68.9
 
69.2
 
69.3
 
69.3
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BEEF AND VEAL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
39 043
 
39 917
 
40 411
 
40 964
 
41 595
 
42 284
 
42 943
 
43 510
 
44 027
 
44 616
 
45 297
 
Consumption
kt cwe
39 191
 
40 698
 
41 234
 
41 718
 
42 281
 
42 981
 
43 632
 
44 192
 
44 683
 
45 266
 
45 945
 
PIGMEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
73 901
 
73 412
 
74 603
 
75 908
 
76 903
 
77 755
 
78 554
 
79 496
 
80 336
 
81 145
 
81 930
 
Consumption
kt cwe
76 923
 
76 780
 
77 799
 
79 034
 
79 982
 
80 879
 
81 745
 
82 750
 
83 635
 
84 509
 
85 381
 
POULTRY MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt rtc
66 546
 
68 819
 
69 842
 
70 945
 
71 995
 
73 104
 
74 247
 
75 386
 
76 564
 
77 737
 
78 852
 
Consumption
kt rtc
68 355
 
71 098
 
72 205
 
73 449
 
74 635
 
75 909
 
77 166
 
78 457
 
79 737
 
81 039
 
82 265
 
SHEEP MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
10 926
 
11 362
 
11 660
 
11 915
 
12 298
 
12 607
 
12 871
 
13 147
 
13 378
 
13 610
 
13 853
 
Consumption
kt cwe
11 590
 
11 979
 
12 281
 
12 559
 
12 954
 
13 275
 
13 553
 
13 841
 
14 083
 
14 326
 
14 581
 
TOTAL MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per capita consumption 1
kg rwt
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.6
 
26.7
 
26.8
 
26.9
 
27.0
 
27.0
 
27.1
 
27.2
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BEEF AND VEAL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
27 605
 
28 317
 
28 570
 
28 597
 
28 636
 
28 704
 
28 811
 
28 968
 
29 052
 
29 192
 
29 350
 
Consumption
kt cwe
26 448
 
27 261
 
27 425
 
27 518
 
27 598
 
27 623
 
27 717
 
27 876
 
27 970
 
28 091
 
28 240
 
PIGMEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
41 120
 
42 546
 
41 987
 
42 091
 
42 459
 
42 719
 
42 717
 
43 004
 
43 327
 
43 548
 
43 620
 
Consumption
kt cwe
38 548
 
39 663
 
39 384
 
39 573
 
39 993
 
40 205
 
40 149
 
40 387
 
40 663
 
40 818
 
40 802
 
POULTRY MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt rtc
45 585
 
47 402
 
47 497
 
48 078
 
48 612
 
49 096
 
49 537
 
49 994
 
50 391
 
50 764
 
51 018
 
Consumption
kt rtc
42 865
 
45 034
 
45 079
 
45 521
 
45 939
 
46 280
 
46 612
 
46 935
 
47 249
 
47 514
 
47 695
 
SHEEP MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt cwe
2 736
 
2 693
 
2 729
 
2 767
 
2 797
 
2 825
 
2 856
 
2 889
 
2 911
 
2 934
 
2 964
 
Consumption
kt cwe
2 062
 
2 096
 
2 133
 
2 151
 
2 168
 
2 186
 
2 198
 
2 210
 
2 223
 
2 238
 
2 256
 
TOTAL MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Per capita consumption 1
kg rwt
67.1
 
69.0
 
68.6
 
68.8
 
69.1
 
69.1
 
69.1
 
69.3
 
69.4
 
69.5
 
69.5
 
Note: Calendar Year: Year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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