OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
3.A1.7 | World fish and seafood projections | ||||||||||||
3.A1.7 | World fish and seafood projections | ||||||||||||
Calendar year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2014-16est | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| FISH 1 | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 168 293 | 175 969 | 178 702 | 182 271 | 184 953 | 185 154 | 187 894 | 189 614 | 191 752 | 193 936 | 193 875 |
| of which aquaculture | kt | 76 369 | 82 291 | 85 171 | 88 805 | 91 535 | 93 864 | 94 695 | 96 220 | 98 332 | 100 426 | 102 128 |
| Consumption | kt | 168 212 | 176 761 | 179 393 | 182 863 | 185 444 | 185 546 | 188 186 | 189 805 | 191 843 | 193 927 | 193 866 |
| of which for food | kt | 148 756 | 155 821 | 159 020 | 162 928 | 165 910 | 167 681 | 169 522 | 171 436 | 173 757 | 176 112 | 177 367 |
| of which for reduction | kt | 14 187 | 15 929 | 15 664 | 15 517 | 15 399 | 13 998 | 15 050 | 14 991 | 14 892 | 14 817 | 13 698 |
| Price | ||||||||||||
| Aquaculture 2 | USD/t | 2 095.5 | 2 109.0 | 2 119.1 | 2 119.5 | 2 100.0 | 2 139.4 | 2 172.2 | 2 204.4 | 2 230.2 | 2 286.2 | 2 312.7 |
| Capture 3 | USD/t | 1 568.3 | 1 564.7 | 1 580.6 | 1 577.3 | 1 577.8 | 1 610.6 | 1 631.0 | 1 655.1 | 1 677.2 | 1 699.3 | 1 724.8 |
| Product traded 4 | USD/t | 2 837.2 | 2 850.0 | 2 867.5 | 2 826.0 | 2 800.0 | 2 852.5 | 2 896.3 | 2 939.2 | 2 973.6 | 3 008.2 | 3 043.0 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 29 154 | 29 378 | 29 464 | 29 614 | 29 684 | 29 704 | 29 682 | 29 624 | 29 597 | 29 616 | 29 684 |
| of which aquaculture | kt | 4 546 | 4 748 | 4 876 | 5 059 | 5 228 | 5 314 | 5 318 | 5 317 | 5 345 | 5 391 | 5 471 |
| Consumption | kt | 37 148 | 37 372 | 37 369 | 37 286 | 37 341 | 37 197 | 37 497 | 37 260 | 37 759 | 37 721 | 38 231 |
| of which for food | kt | 31 718 | 32 200 | 32 306 | 32 307 | 32 442 | 32 326 | 32 752 | 32 577 | 33 132 | 33 149 | 33 651 |
| of which for reduction | kt | 4 494 | 4 330 | 4 263 | 4 218 | 4 178 | 4 188 | 4 099 | 4 066 | 4 031 | 3 999 | 4 032 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 139 139 | 146 592 | 149 238 | 152 657 | 155 268 | 155 450 | 158 213 | 159 990 | 162 156 | 164 320 | 164 190 |
| of which aquaculture | kt | 71 823 | 77 544 | 80 295 | 83 746 | 86 307 | 88 550 | 89 377 | 90 903 | 92 986 | 95 035 | 96 657 |
| Consumption | kt | 131 064 | 139 389 | 142 024 | 145 577 | 148 103 | 148 349 | 150 689 | 152 545 | 154 084 | 156 206 | 155 634 |
| of which for food | kt | 117 038 | 123 621 | 126 714 | 130 621 | 133 469 | 135 355 | 136 770 | 138 859 | 140 625 | 142 963 | 143 716 |
| of which for reduction | kt | 9 692 | 11 598 | 11 401 | 11 299 | 11 221 | 9 811 | 10 950 | 10 925 | 10 861 | 10 818 | 9 667 |
| OECD | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 31 211 | 31 536 | 31 696 | 31 853 | 31 968 | 31 699 | 31 832 | 31 939 | 31 981 | 32 068 | 31 694 |
| of which aquaculture | kt | 6 299 | 6 454 | 6 611 | 6 837 | 7 049 | 7 174 | 7 188 | 7 200 | 7 256 | 7 325 | 7 432 |
| Consumption | kt | 39 372 | 39 993 | 40 099 | 40 029 | 40 125 | 39 822 | 40 267 | 40 145 | 40 717 | 40 728 | 41 024 |
| of which for food | kt | 32 736 | 33 330 | 33 584 | 33 640 | 33 833 | 33 740 | 34 214 | 34 110 | 34 715 | 34 756 | 35 307 |
| of which for reduction | kt | 5 542 | 5 656 | 5 561 | 5 485 | 5 438 | 5 275 | 5 286 | 5 300 | 5 288 | 5 281 | 5 053 |
| FISHMEAL 5 | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 4 385.2 | 4 942.2 | 4 921.4 | 4 932.4 | 4 944.6 | 4 635.5 | 4 933.1 | 4 948.1 | 4 957.0 | 4 973.2 | 4 721.4 |
| from whole fish | kt | 3 205.6 | 3 752.9 | 3 709.9 | 3 694.9 | 3 686.0 | 3 362.0 | 3 634.4 | 3 630.7 | 3 617.8 | 3 610.0 | 3 343.3 |
| Consumption | kt | 4 457.5 | 4 856.0 | 4 929.2 | 4 944.0 | 4 957.2 | 4 811.1 | 4 771.5 | 4 958.4 | 4 967.3 | 4 985.2 | 4 877.5 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | -72.4 | 85.8 | -8.2 | -12.1 | -13.0 | -176.0 | 161.2 | -10.7 | -10.7 | -12.4 | -156.5 |
| Price 6 | USD/t | 1 592.3 | 1 280.9 | 1 200.3 | 1 252.9 | 1 291.0 | 1 558.6 | 1 372.1 | 1 412.0 | 1 442.0 | 1 487.8 | 1 834.9 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 1 414.8 | 1 423.2 | 1 427.5 | 1 439.8 | 1 448.8 | 1 469.3 | 1 460.7 | 1 463.7 | 1 467.3 | 1 472.8 | 1 493.4 |
| from whole fish | kt | 1 025.1 | 1 024.3 | 1 018.6 | 1 018.4 | 1 019.0 | 1 032.0 | 1 013.6 | 1 008.7 | 1 003.3 | 998.6 | 1 010.1 |
| Consumption | kt | 1 618.9 | 1 677.8 | 1 675.6 | 1 619.2 | 1 581.4 | 1 444.4 | 1 437.4 | 1 463.5 | 1 429.7 | 1 402.6 | 1 299.1 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | 3.6 | 28.8 | 2.8 | -1.1 | -2.0 | -47.0 | 44.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -1.4 | -47.5 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 2 970.4 | 3 518.9 | 3 493.9 | 3 492.6 | 3 495.9 | 3 166.2 | 3 472.3 | 3 484.4 | 3 489.7 | 3 500.4 | 3 228.0 |
| from whole fish | kt | 2 180.5 | 2 728.6 | 2 691.4 | 2 676.5 | 2 667.0 | 2 330.0 | 2 620.7 | 2 622.1 | 2 614.5 | 2 611.4 | 2 333.2 |
| Consumption | kt | 2 838.7 | 3 178.3 | 3 253.6 | 3 324.8 | 3 375.8 | 3 366.7 | 3 334.1 | 3 495.0 | 3 537.5 | 3 582.6 | 3 578.4 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | -76.0 | 57.0 | -11.0 | -11.0 | -11.0 | -129.0 | 117.0 | -11.0 | -11.0 | -11.0 | -109.0 |
| OECD | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 1 604.4 | 1 687.2 | 1 685.6 | 1 691.5 | 1 699.4 | 1 681.2 | 1 695.6 | 1 709.7 | 1 718.8 | 1 730.6 | 1 692.0 |
| from whole fish | kt | 1 210.6 | 1 282.0 | 1 270.4 | 1 263.6 | 1 263.0 | 1 237.1 | 1 241.5 | 1 247.4 | 1 247.5 | 1 248.9 | 1 201.0 |
| Consumption | kt | 1 810.5 | 1 864.0 | 1 862.9 | 1 815.1 | 1 780.2 | 1 635.0 | 1 633.7 | 1 669.6 | 1 638.7 | 1 615.6 | 1 501.5 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | -9.0 | 62.8 | 1.8 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -68.0 | 63.2 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -2.4 | -53.5 |
| FISH OIL 5 | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 881.2 | 968.1 | 962.2 | 962.3 | 962.8 | 909.0 | 959.2 | 962.3 | 964.0 | 966.9 | 925.6 |
| from whole fish | kt | 566.8 | 645.0 | 634.0 | 628.5 | 623.8 | 565.0 | 609.9 | 607.7 | 603.9 | 601.1 | 554.0 |
| Consumption | kt | 905.1 | 894.4 | 963.9 | 964.0 | 964.4 | 961.6 | 912.7 | 961.8 | 963.5 | 966.4 | 976.1 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | -23.9 | 73.7 | -1.7 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -52.6 | 46.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -50.5 |
| Price 7 | USD/t | 1 808.3 | 1 607.9 | 1 622.9 | 1 641.3 | 1 667.2 | 1 907.2 | 1 720.2 | 1 747.0 | 1 774.4 | 1 794.8 | 2 055.8 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 394.2 | 354.3 | 354.2 | 356.0 | 357.1 | 360.0 | 359.3 | 360.6 | 362.0 | 363.7 | 367.8 |
| from whole fish | kt | 206.1 | 171.9 | 169.4 | 168.3 | 167.1 | 167.9 | 164.8 | 163.9 | 163.0 | 162.1 | 163.8 |
| Consumption | kt | 534.6 | 502.0 | 529.8 | 526.6 | 524.8 | 540.1 | 482.2 | 515.2 | 511.8 | 510.2 | 536.9 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | -4.7 | 28.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -25.6 | 21.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -25.5 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 487.0 | 613.9 | 608.0 | 606.3 | 605.7 | 549.0 | 599.9 | 601.7 | 602.0 | 603.2 | 557.8 |
| from whole fish | kt | 360.7 | 473.1 | 464.6 | 460.2 | 456.7 | 397.1 | 445.0 | 443.8 | 440.9 | 438.9 | 390.2 |
| Consumption | kt | 370.5 | 392.4 | 434.1 | 437.4 | 439.6 | 421.5 | 430.5 | 446.7 | 451.7 | 456.3 | 439.2 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | -19.2 | 45.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -27.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -25.0 |
| OECD | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt | 513.6 | 469.2 | 468.4 | 469.1 | 470.5 | 466.8 | 470.6 | 474.4 | 477.3 | 480.7 | 474.7 |
| from whole fish | kt | 274.4 | 238.0 | 234.0 | 230.8 | 228.8 | 221.9 | 222.4 | 222.9 | 222.4 | 222.1 | 212.6 |
| Consumption | kt | 682.9 | 640.8 | 673.2 | 670.5 | 669.2 | 671.7 | 621.1 | 660.9 | 658.4 | 657.2 | 669.7 |
| Variation in stocks | kt | -8.0 | 43.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -35.6 | 31.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -35.5 |
Note: The term “fish” indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators and aquatic plants. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Data are in live weight equivalent. | |||||||||||||
World unit value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis). | |||||||||||||
FAO estimated value of world ex vessel value of capture fisheries production excluding for reduction. | |||||||||||||
World unit value of trade (sum of exports and imports). | |||||||||||||
Data are in product weight. | |||||||||||||
Fishmeal, 64-65% protein, Hamburg, Germany. | |||||||||||||
Fish oil, any origin, N.W. Europe. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |