1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

Table 3.A1.7 - World fish and seafood projections

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌3.A1.7World fish and seafood projections
3.A1.7World fish and seafood projections
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
FISH 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
168 293
 
175 969
 
178 702
 
182 271
 
184 953
 
185 154
 
187 894
 
189 614
 
191 752
 
193 936
 
193 875
 
of which aquaculture
kt
76 369
 
82 291
 
85 171
 
88 805
 
91 535
 
93 864
 
94 695
 
96 220
 
98 332
 
100 426
 
102 128
 
Consumption
kt
168 212
 
176 761
 
179 393
 
182 863
 
185 444
 
185 546
 
188 186
 
189 805
 
191 843
 
193 927
 
193 866
 
of which for food
kt
148 756
 
155 821
 
159 020
 
162 928
 
165 910
 
167 681
 
169 522
 
171 436
 
173 757
 
176 112
 
177 367
 
of which for reduction
kt
14 187
 
15 929
 
15 664
 
15 517
 
15 399
 
13 998
 
15 050
 
14 991
 
14 892
 
14 817
 
13 698
 
Price
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aquaculture 2
USD/t
2 095.5
 
2 109.0
 
2 119.1
 
2 119.5
 
2 100.0
 
2 139.4
 
2 172.2
 
2 204.4
 
2 230.2
 
2 286.2
 
2 312.7
 
Capture 3
USD/t
1 568.3
 
1 564.7
 
1 580.6
 
1 577.3
 
1 577.8
 
1 610.6
 
1 631.0
 
1 655.1
 
1 677.2
 
1 699.3
 
1 724.8
 
Product traded 4
USD/t
2 837.2
 
2 850.0
 
2 867.5
 
2 826.0
 
2 800.0
 
2 852.5
 
2 896.3
 
2 939.2
 
2 973.6
 
3 008.2
 
3 043.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
29 154
 
29 378
 
29 464
 
29 614
 
29 684
 
29 704
 
29 682
 
29 624
 
29 597
 
29 616
 
29 684
 
of which aquaculture
kt
4 546
 
4 748
 
4 876
 
5 059
 
5 228
 
5 314
 
5 318
 
5 317
 
5 345
 
5 391
 
5 471
 
Consumption
kt
37 148
 
37 372
 
37 369
 
37 286
 
37 341
 
37 197
 
37 497
 
37 260
 
37 759
 
37 721
 
38 231
 
of which for food
kt
31 718
 
32 200
 
32 306
 
32 307
 
32 442
 
32 326
 
32 752
 
32 577
 
33 132
 
33 149
 
33 651
 
of which for reduction
kt
4 494
 
4 330
 
4 263
 
4 218
 
4 178
 
4 188
 
4 099
 
4 066
 
4 031
 
3 999
 
4 032
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
139 139
 
146 592
 
149 238
 
152 657
 
155 268
 
155 450
 
158 213
 
159 990
 
162 156
 
164 320
 
164 190
 
of which aquaculture
kt
71 823
 
77 544
 
80 295
 
83 746
 
86 307
 
88 550
 
89 377
 
90 903
 
92 986
 
95 035
 
96 657
 
Consumption
kt
131 064
 
139 389
 
142 024
 
145 577
 
148 103
 
148 349
 
150 689
 
152 545
 
154 084
 
156 206
 
155 634
 
of which for food
kt
117 038
 
123 621
 
126 714
 
130 621
 
133 469
 
135 355
 
136 770
 
138 859
 
140 625
 
142 963
 
143 716
 
of which for reduction
kt
9 692
 
11 598
 
11 401
 
11 299
 
11 221
 
9 811
 
10 950
 
10 925
 
10 861
 
10 818
 
9 667
 
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
31 211
 
31 536
 
31 696
 
31 853
 
31 968
 
31 699
 
31 832
 
31 939
 
31 981
 
32 068
 
31 694
 
of which aquaculture
kt
6 299
 
6 454
 
6 611
 
6 837
 
7 049
 
7 174
 
7 188
 
7 200
 
7 256
 
7 325
 
7 432
 
Consumption
kt
39 372
 
39 993
 
40 099
 
40 029
 
40 125
 
39 822
 
40 267
 
40 145
 
40 717
 
40 728
 
41 024
 
of which for food
kt
32 736
 
33 330
 
33 584
 
33 640
 
33 833
 
33 740
 
34 214
 
34 110
 
34 715
 
34 756
 
35 307
 
of which for reduction
kt
5 542
 
5 656
 
5 561
 
5 485
 
5 438
 
5 275
 
5 286
 
5 300
 
5 288
 
5 281
 
5 053
 
FISHMEAL 5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
4 385.2
 
4 942.2
 
4 921.4
 
4 932.4
 
4 944.6
 
4 635.5
 
4 933.1
 
4 948.1
 
4 957.0
 
4 973.2
 
4 721.4
 
from whole fish
kt
3 205.6
 
3 752.9
 
3 709.9
 
3 694.9
 
3 686.0
 
3 362.0
 
3 634.4
 
3 630.7
 
3 617.8
 
3 610.0
 
3 343.3
 
Consumption
kt
4 457.5
 
4 856.0
 
4 929.2
 
4 944.0
 
4 957.2
 
4 811.1
 
4 771.5
 
4 958.4
 
4 967.3
 
4 985.2
 
4 877.5
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-72.4
 
85.8
 
-8.2
 
-12.1
 
-13.0
 
-176.0
 
161.2
 
-10.7
 
-10.7
 
-12.4
 
-156.5
 
Price 6
USD/t
1 592.3
 
1 280.9
 
1 200.3
 
1 252.9
 
1 291.0
 
1 558.6
 
1 372.1
 
1 412.0
 
1 442.0
 
1 487.8
 
1 834.9
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
1 414.8
 
1 423.2
 
1 427.5
 
1 439.8
 
1 448.8
 
1 469.3
 
1 460.7
 
1 463.7
 
1 467.3
 
1 472.8
 
1 493.4
 
from whole fish
kt
1 025.1
 
1 024.3
 
1 018.6
 
1 018.4
 
1 019.0
 
1 032.0
 
1 013.6
 
1 008.7
 
1 003.3
 
998.6
 
1 010.1
 
Consumption
kt
1 618.9
 
1 677.8
 
1 675.6
 
1 619.2
 
1 581.4
 
1 444.4
 
1 437.4
 
1 463.5
 
1 429.7
 
1 402.6
 
1 299.1
 
Variation in stocks
kt
3.6
 
28.8
 
2.8
 
-1.1
 
-2.0
 
-47.0
 
44.2
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
-1.4
 
-47.5
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
2 970.4
 
3 518.9
 
3 493.9
 
3 492.6
 
3 495.9
 
3 166.2
 
3 472.3
 
3 484.4
 
3 489.7
 
3 500.4
 
3 228.0
 
from whole fish
kt
2 180.5
 
2 728.6
 
2 691.4
 
2 676.5
 
2 667.0
 
2 330.0
 
2 620.7
 
2 622.1
 
2 614.5
 
2 611.4
 
2 333.2
 
Consumption
kt
2 838.7
 
3 178.3
 
3 253.6
 
3 324.8
 
3 375.8
 
3 366.7
 
3 334.1
 
3 495.0
 
3 537.5
 
3 582.6
 
3 578.4
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-76.0
 
57.0
 
-11.0
 
-11.0
 
-11.0
 
-129.0
 
117.0
 
-11.0
 
-11.0
 
-11.0
 
-109.0
 
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
1 604.4
 
1 687.2
 
1 685.6
 
1 691.5
 
1 699.4
 
1 681.2
 
1 695.6
 
1 709.7
 
1 718.8
 
1 730.6
 
1 692.0
 
from whole fish
kt
1 210.6
 
1 282.0
 
1 270.4
 
1 263.6
 
1 263.0
 
1 237.1
 
1 241.5
 
1 247.4
 
1 247.5
 
1 248.9
 
1 201.0
 
Consumption
kt
1 810.5
 
1 864.0
 
1 862.9
 
1 815.1
 
1 780.2
 
1 635.0
 
1 633.7
 
1 669.6
 
1 638.7
 
1 615.6
 
1 501.5
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-9.0
 
62.8
 
1.8
 
-2.1
 
-3.0
 
-68.0
 
63.2
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-2.4
 
-53.5
 
FISH OIL 5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
881.2
 
968.1
 
962.2
 
962.3
 
962.8
 
909.0
 
959.2
 
962.3
 
964.0
 
966.9
 
925.6
 
from whole fish
kt
566.8
 
645.0
 
634.0
 
628.5
 
623.8
 
565.0
 
609.9
 
607.7
 
603.9
 
601.1
 
554.0
 
Consumption
kt
905.1
 
894.4
 
963.9
 
964.0
 
964.4
 
961.6
 
912.7
 
961.8
 
963.5
 
966.4
 
976.1
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-23.9
 
73.7
 
-1.7
 
-1.6
 
-1.6
 
-52.6
 
46.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
-50.5
 
Price 7
USD/t
1 808.3
 
1 607.9
 
1 622.9
 
1 641.3
 
1 667.2
 
1 907.2
 
1 720.2
 
1 747.0
 
1 774.4
 
1 794.8
 
2 055.8
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
394.2
 
354.3
 
354.2
 
356.0
 
357.1
 
360.0
 
359.3
 
360.6
 
362.0
 
363.7
 
367.8
 
from whole fish
kt
206.1
 
171.9
 
169.4
 
168.3
 
167.1
 
167.9
 
164.8
 
163.9
 
163.0
 
162.1
 
163.8
 
Consumption
kt
534.6
 
502.0
 
529.8
 
526.6
 
524.8
 
540.1
 
482.2
 
515.2
 
511.8
 
510.2
 
536.9
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-4.7
 
28.7
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
-25.6
 
21.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
-25.5
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
487.0
 
613.9
 
608.0
 
606.3
 
605.7
 
549.0
 
599.9
 
601.7
 
602.0
 
603.2
 
557.8
 
from whole fish
kt
360.7
 
473.1
 
464.6
 
460.2
 
456.7
 
397.1
 
445.0
 
443.8
 
440.9
 
438.9
 
390.2
 
Consumption
kt
370.5
 
392.4
 
434.1
 
437.4
 
439.6
 
421.5
 
430.5
 
446.7
 
451.7
 
456.3
 
439.2
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-19.2
 
45.0
 
-2.0
 
-2.0
 
-2.0
 
-27.0
 
25.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-25.0
 
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
513.6
 
469.2
 
468.4
 
469.1
 
470.5
 
466.8
 
470.6
 
474.4
 
477.3
 
480.7
 
474.7
 
from whole fish
kt
274.4
 
238.0
 
234.0
 
230.8
 
228.8
 
221.9
 
222.4
 
222.9
 
222.4
 
222.1
 
212.6
 
Consumption
kt
682.9
 
640.8
 
673.2
 
670.5
 
669.2
 
671.7
 
621.1
 
660.9
 
658.4
 
657.2
 
669.7
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-8.0
 
43.7
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
-35.6
 
31.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
-35.5
 
Note: The term “fish” indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators and aquatic plants.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Data are in live weight equivalent.
2.
World unit value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis).
3.
FAO estimated value of world ex vessel value of capture fisheries production excluding for reduction.
4.
World unit value of trade (sum of exports and imports).
5.
Data are in product weight.
6.
Fishmeal, 64-65% protein, Hamburg, Germany.
7.
Fish oil, any origin, N.W. Europe.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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