1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌3.A1.9World cotton projections
3.A1.9World cotton projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
WORLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
23.4
 
22.7
 
22.6
 
22.7
 
23.2
 
23.7
 
24.2
 
24.7
 
25.2
 
25.6
 
26.1
 
Area
Mha
31.7
 
30.2
 
29.7
 
29.5
 
29.5
 
29.6
 
29.7
 
29.8
 
29.9
 
29.9
 
30.0
 
Yield
t/ha
0.74
 
0.75
 
0.76
 
0.77
 
0.79
 
0.80
 
0.81
 
0.83
 
0.84
 
0.86
 
0.87
 
Consumption 1
Mt
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.1
 
24.1
 
24.2
 
24.6
 
24.9
 
25.2
 
25.6
 
26.0
 
Exports
Mt
7.6
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.9
 
7.9
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.1
 
8.2
 
8.4
 
8.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
19.8
 
16.5
 
14.9
 
13.3
 
12.1
 
11.4
 
10.9
 
10.4
 
10.2
 
10.1
 
10.0
 
Price 2
USD/t
1 582.8
 
1 480.7
 
1 467.2
 
1 442.1
 
1 460.5
 
1 546.7
 
1 568.2
 
1 572.3
 
1 572.5
 
1 573.3
 
1 576.0
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
5.6
 
6.0
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.1
 
6.2
 
6.3
 
6.4
 
6.5
 
Consumption
Mt
1.7
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Exports
Mt
4.1
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.8
 
Imports
Mt
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
1.8
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
17.7
 
16.7
 
16.7
 
16.8
 
17.2
 
17.6
 
18.1
 
18.5
 
18.9
 
19.3
 
19.7
 
Consumption
Mt
22.3
 
22.2
 
22.2
 
22.3
 
22.3
 
22.3
 
22.7
 
23.0
 
23.3
 
23.6
 
23.9
 
Exports
Mt
3.5
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.3
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.6
 
3.7
 
Imports
Mt
7.0
 
7.3
 
7.3
 
7.3
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.5
 
7.6
 
7.7
 
7.8
 
7.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
18.0
 
14.4
 
12.9
 
11.5
 
10.4
 
9.8
 
9.2
 
8.7
 
8.5
 
8.3
 
8.3
 
OECD 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
5.2
 
5.5
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.5
 
5.6
 
5.6
 
5.7
 
5.8
 
5.9
 
5.9
 
Consumption
Mt
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
Exports
Mt
3.3
 
3.9
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.1
 
4.1
 
Imports
Mt
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
2.5
 
2.8
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Consumption for cotton means mill consumption and not final consumer demand.
2.
Cotlook A index, Middling 1 3/32", c.f.r. far Eastern ports (August/July).
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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