1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

Table 3.A1.8 - World biofuel projections

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌3.A1.8World biofuel projections
3.A1.8World biofuel projections
  
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
ETHANOL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
117.4
 
123.7
 
126.8
 
128.4
 
130.7
 
131.5
 
132.8
 
133.7
 
134.7
 
135.8
 
136.7
 
of which maize based
mln L
68.2
 
71.9
 
73.7
 
73.9
 
74.7
 
74.5
 
74.5
 
74.3
 
74.2
 
74.0
 
73.7
 
of which sugar cane based
mln L
27.9
 
29.5
 
30.2
 
31.1
 
31.9
 
32.5
 
33.3
 
33.7
 
34.3
 
34.9
 
35.5
 
of which advanced 1
mln L
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Consumption
mln L
117.2
 
124.6
 
127.0
 
128.8
 
130.8
 
131.8
 
133.0
 
134.0
 
134.9
 
136.0
 
136.9
 
of which fuel use
mln L
96.2
 
103.1
 
105.4
 
107.0
 
108.9
 
109.6
 
110.7
 
111.4
 
112.1
 
113.0
 
113.6
 
Exports
mln L
8.2
 
8.9
 
9.0
 
8.9
 
8.9
 
8.8
 
8.7
 
8.5
 
8.2
 
8.1
 
7.9
 
Price 2
USD/hl
51.0
 
44.5
 
46.0
 
47.3
 
48.4
 
49.7
 
50.9
 
51.9
 
53.2
 
54.5
 
55.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
68.1
 
71.7
 
73.2
 
73.2
 
74.0
 
73.6
 
73.6
 
73.3
 
73.2
 
73.0
 
72.7
 
Consumption
mln L
67.7
 
72.7
 
74.0
 
74.4
 
74.9
 
74.7
 
74.8
 
74.5
 
74.3
 
74.1
 
73.8
 
of which fuel use
mln L
62.0
 
66.7
 
67.9
 
68.3
 
68.8
 
68.7
 
68.7
 
68.4
 
68.1
 
68.0
 
67.6
 
Net trade
mln L
0.2
 
-0.5
 
-0.8
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-1.0
 
-1.1
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
49.4
 
51.9
 
53.6
 
55.2
 
56.7
 
57.9
 
59.3
 
60.4
 
61.5
 
62.8
 
64.0
 
Consumption
mln L
49.5
 
51.9
 
53.1
 
54.4
 
56.0
 
57.1
 
58.3
 
59.5
 
60.7
 
61.9
 
63.1
 
of which fuel use
mln L
34.2
 
36.4
 
37.5
 
38.7
 
40.0
 
41.0
 
42.0
 
43.0
 
44.0
 
45.0
 
46.0
 
Net trade
mln L
-0.2
 
0.5
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
OECD 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
67.2
 
70.8
 
72.3
 
72.3
 
73.0
 
72.6
 
72.6
 
72.4
 
72.2
 
72.0
 
71.7
 
Consumption
mln L
67.9
 
72.8
 
74.1
 
74.5
 
75.0
 
74.8
 
74.9
 
74.6
 
74.4
 
74.2
 
73.9
 
of which fuel use
mln L
62.0
 
66.7
 
68.0
 
68.4
 
68.8
 
68.7
 
68.7
 
68.4
 
68.1
 
68.0
 
67.6
 
Net trade
mln L
-0.8
 
-1.5
 
-1.8
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
-2.0
 
-2.1
 
-2.1
 
-2.0
 
-2.0
 
-2.0
 
BIODIESEL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
33.8
 
37.3
 
38.6
 
39.6
 
40.3
 
40.2
 
40.1
 
40.2
 
40.4
 
40.4
 
40.5
 
of which vegetable oil based
mln L
24.3
 
27.6
 
28.4
 
29.0
 
29.2
 
29.0
 
28.8
 
28.8
 
28.8
 
28.8
 
28.8
 
of which waste based
mln L
8.2
 
9.0
 
9.4
 
9.8
 
10.2
 
10.2
 
10.3
 
10.4
 
10.4
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
of which advanced 1
mln L
0.3
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
Consumption
mln L
33.8
 
37.5
 
38.8
 
39.7
 
40.4
 
40.3
 
40.2
 
40.4
 
40.5
 
40.6
 
40.6
 
Exports
mln L
3.5
 
3.8
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
3.8
 
3.6
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
Price 4
USD/hl
86.9
 
86.1
 
88.0
 
89.4
 
90.4
 
90.9
 
91.3
 
92.1
 
92.7
 
93.2
 
93.6
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
20.4
 
21.7
 
22.2
 
22.4
 
22.3
 
22.1
 
21.9
 
21.8
 
21.7
 
21.2
 
20.9
 
Consumption
mln L
22.4
 
24.3
 
25.3
 
25.4
 
24.8
 
24.4
 
24.0
 
23.7
 
23.5
 
23.0
 
22.6
 
Net trade
mln L
-2.2
 
-2.6
 
-3.0
 
-2.9
 
-2.5
 
-2.3
 
-2.0
 
-1.9
 
-1.8
 
-1.8
 
-1.8
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
13.4
 
15.6
 
16.4
 
17.2
 
18.0
 
18.1
 
18.2
 
18.4
 
18.7
 
19.2
 
19.6
 
Consumption
mln L
11.3
 
13.2
 
13.5
 
14.3
 
15.6
 
15.9
 
16.3
 
16.6
 
17.0
 
17.5
 
18.0
 
Net trade
mln L
2.1
 
2.5
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.4
 
2.2
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
OECD 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
mln L
21.0
 
22.4
 
23.0
 
23.2
 
23.0
 
22.8
 
22.7
 
22.6
 
22.4
 
21.9
 
21.6
 
Consumption
mln L
22.9
 
24.9
 
25.9
 
26.0
 
25.5
 
25.1
 
24.7
 
24.4
 
24.1
 
23.7
 
23.3
 
Net trade
mln L
-2.1
 
-2.5
 
-3.0
 
-2.9
 
-2.5
 
-2.3
 
-2.0
 
-1.8
 
-1.8
 
-1.7
 
-1.7
 
Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Advanced biofuels corresponding to biofuels produced out of agricultural residues, forest residues and dedicated energy crops.
2.
Wholesale price, United states, Omaha.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Producer price Germany net of biodiesel tariff and energy tax.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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