OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
A.4.2 | Wheat projections: Consumption, food | ||||||||||||
A.4.2 | Wheat projections: Consumption, food | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | CONSUMPTION (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | FOOD (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | FOOD (kg/cap) | Growth (%) 4 | ||||||
Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | ||
| WORLD | 722 388 | 815 281 | 1.70 | 0.93 | 491 525 | 551 883 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 66.9 | 67.2 | 0.03 | -0.06 |
| DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 275 198 | 291 067 | 0.59 | 0.51 | 133 626 | 136 951 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 95.5 | 95.0 | -0.08 | -0.02 |
| NORTH AMERICA | 41 168 | 43 306 | 1.26 | 0.56 | 28 842 | 30 344 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 80.6 | 78.5 | -0.47 | -0.20 |
| Canada | 8 726 | 9 146 | 2.65 | 0.54 | 2 733 | 2 866 | -0.36 | 0.40 | 76.1 | 72.9 | -1.41 | -0.39 |
| United States | 32 441 | 34 160 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 26 109 | 27 477 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 81.1 | 79.1 | -0.37 | -0.18 |
| EUROPE | 189 056 | 197 048 | 0.24 | 0.46 | 80 232 | 80 099 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 108.6 | 108.5 | -0.12 | 0.05 |
| European Union | 128 883 | 132 751 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 55 573 | 55 992 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 110.0 | 109.9 | -0.07 | 0.07 |
| Russia | 40 276 | 43 797 | 0.24 | 0.94 | 14 433 | 13 910 | -0.15 | -0.33 | 100.6 | 98.8 | -0.18 | -0.12 |
| Ukraine | 11 452 | 11 721 | -0.96 | 0.61 | 5 418 | 5 414 | -0.67 | -0.11 | 120.9 | 128.6 | -0.29 | 0.48 |
| OCEANIA DEVELOPED | 8 483 | 10 751 | 2.97 | -0.03 | 2 291 | 2 548 | 2.86 | 0.78 | 80.4 | 78.8 | 1.32 | -0.33 |
| Australia | 7 537 | 9 661 | 2.70 | -0.23 | 1 929 | 2 135 | 1.99 | 0.67 | 80.5 | 78.0 | 0.34 | -0.50 |
| New Zealand | 946 | 1 090 | 5.44 | 1.94 | 362 | 413 | 9.11 | 1.39 | 79.9 | 83.3 | 8.24 | 0.56 |
| OTHER DEVELOPED 1 | 36 491 | 39 962 | 1.16 | 0.87 | 22 261 | 23 961 | 1.41 | 0.59 | 81.5 | 84.2 | 0.77 | 0.26 |
| Japan | 6 589 | 6 424 | 0.91 | -0.28 | 5 390 | 5 276 | 0.82 | -0.24 | 42.6 | 43.1 | 0.90 | 0.09 |
| Kazakhstan | 7 094 | 8 039 | -0.21 | 1.36 | 2 527 | 2 789 | 1.29 | 0.85 | 143.4 | 142.6 | -0.16 | -0.04 |
| South Africa | 3 296 | 3 636 | 1.45 | 0.67 | 3 153 | 3 443 | 1.30 | 0.66 | 57.9 | 58.6 | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 447 191 | 524 214 | 2.44 | 1.17 | 357 899 | 414 932 | 1.57 | 1.18 | 60.2 | 61.3 | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| AFRICA | 68 340 | 84 575 | 3.69 | 1.93 | 55 991 | 70 306 | 2.64 | 2.10 | 49.5 | 47.6 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| NORTH AFRICA | 46 060 | 54 239 | 3.44 | 1.39 | 36 166 | 42 930 | 2.11 | 1.52 | 197.6 | 199.6 | 0.31 | 0.10 |
| Algeria | 10 322 | 12 170 | 3.03 | 1.30 | 8 322 | 9 772 | 1.92 | 1.41 | 209.8 | 210.7 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Egypt | 20 867 | 24 914 | 3.44 | 1.53 | 17 400 | 21 277 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 190.2 | 192.4 | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | 22 279 | 30 336 | 4.22 | 2.97 | 19 826 | 27 376 | 3.67 | 3.10 | 20.9 | 21.7 | 0.82 | 0.46 |
| Ethiopia | 5 448 | 7 710 | 5.52 | 3.26 | 4 281 | 6 222 | 3.92 | 3.50 | 43.1 | 48.7 | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Ghana | 529 | 643 | 7.97 | 2.02 | 379 | 478 | 3.14 | 2.47 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 0.66 | 0.44 |
| Mozambique | 571 | 827 | 6.88 | 3.53 | 561 | 816 | 6.55 | 3.57 | 20.0 | 21.8 | 3.61 | 0.88 |
| Nigeria | 3 971 | 5 026 | 3.26 | 2.50 | 3 571 | 4 593 | 3.71 | 2.66 | 19.6 | 19.2 | 0.98 | 0.18 |
| Tanzania | 806 | 1 221 | 4.29 | 3.76 | 790 | 1 202 | 4.81 | 3.79 | 14.8 | 16.2 | 1.55 | 0.79 |
| Zambia | 257 | 340 | 5.37 | 3.18 | 240 | 324 | 5.05 | 3.33 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 1.92 | 0.30 |
| LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN | 37 435 | 41 493 | 1.23 | 1.00 | 34 135 | 37 979 | 1.59 | 1.05 | 54.0 | 54.3 | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| Argentina | 5 833 | 6 464 | 2.13 | 0.99 | 5 100 | 5 738 | 1.28 | 1.09 | 117.5 | 119.8 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Brazil | 11 127 | 12 301 | 0.66 | 0.95 | 10 683 | 11 826 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 51.4 | 52.7 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| Chile | 2 293 | 2 536 | 1.01 | 0.83 | 2 150 | 2 361 | 1.28 | 0.83 | 119.8 | 119.4 | 0.20 | -0.03 |
| Colombia | 1 539 | 1 680 | 1.77 | 0.65 | 1 386 | 1 497 | 1.29 | 0.57 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 0.26 | -0.11 |
| Mexico | 7 059 | 7 886 | 2.07 | 1.24 | 6 037 | 6 826 | 4.20 | 1.38 | 47.5 | 47.7 | 2.73 | 0.31 |
| Paraguay | 413 | 459 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 338 | 378 | 1.57 | 1.13 | 51.0 | 50.1 | 0.23 | -0.02 |
| Peru | 2 000 | 2 241 | 2.14 | 0.96 | 1 900 | 2 129 | 2.24 | 0.95 | 60.6 | 60.0 | 0.92 | -0.15 |
| Uruguay | 430 | 442 | -4.38 | 0.29 | 385 | 394 | -0.66 | 0.30 | 112.2 | 110.8 | -1.00 | -0.02 |
| ASIA and PACIFIC | 341 416 | 398 146 | 2.34 | 1.03 | 267 772 | 306 647 | 1.35 | 0.99 | 64.0 | 66.8 | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| Bangladesh | 5 181 | 7 098 | 7.10 | 1.68 | 4 047 | 5 524 | 4.36 | 2.04 | 25.1 | 30.6 | 3.14 | 1.01 |
| China 2 | 119 633 | 135 530 | 1.14 | 0.41 | 88 500 | 90 164 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 64.3 | 63.7 | -0.31 | -0.09 |
| India | 93 362 | 109 267 | 2.90 | 1.27 | 78 100 | 95 690 | 1.57 | 1.20 | 59.6 | 64.9 | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| Indonesia | 8 646 | 10 614 | 7.18 | 1.13 | 6 446 | 7 136 | 4.69 | 0.76 | 25.0 | 24.9 | 3.36 | -0.18 |
| Iran | 15 120 | 16 840 | 0.76 | 0.93 | 13 220 | 14 625 | 1.26 | 0.87 | 167.1 | 168.1 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Korea | 4 259 | 5 160 | 2.66 | 1.40 | 2 417 | 2 499 | 0.52 | 0.28 | 48.1 | 48.0 | 0.00 | -0.02 |
| Malaysia | 1 382 | 1 617 | 4.42 | 1.20 | 958 | 1 112 | 1.85 | 1.15 | 31.6 | 32.0 | 0.28 | -0.06 |
| Pakistan | 24 938 | 31 377 | 1.56 | 2.26 | 23 747 | 30 513 | 2.18 | 2.27 | 125.7 | 132.2 | 0.06 | 0.47 |
| Philippines | 4 977 | 5 668 | 8.02 | 1.09 | 2 352 | 2 785 | 2.04 | 1.46 | 23.4 | 23.7 | 0.47 | 0.06 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 548 | 4 201 | 3.79 | 1.51 | 3 165 | 3 752 | 3.52 | 1.43 | 100.4 | 100.6 | 1.12 | -0.03 |
| Thailand | 3 585 | 3 635 | 16.01 | 0.70 | 1 109 | 1 117 | 3.37 | -0.12 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 3.04 | -0.16 |
| Turkey | 22 183 | 23 905 | 1.96 | 0.64 | 16 433 | 17 775 | 1.50 | 0.60 | 209.1 | 208.1 | -0.08 | -0.06 |
| Viet Nam | 3 130 | 4 843 | 14.34 | 1.29 | 1 450 | 1 787 | 4.05 | 1.40 | 15.5 | 17.4 | 2.93 | 0.56 |
| LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 32 878 | 43 967 | 4.67 | 2.47 | 27 476 | 37 423 | 3.73 | 2.72 | 28.8 | 30.7 | 1.30 | 0.47 |
| OECD 3 | 224 549 | 236 742 | 0.83 | 0.42 | 121 255 | 126 034 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 92.3 | 91.6 | 0.05 | -0.02 |
| BRICS | 267 694 | 304 532 | 1.57 | 0.81 | 194 870 | 215 032 | 0.77 | 0.61 | 63.0 | 64.9 | -0.09 | 0.01 |
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
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Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. | |||||||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |