1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.4.2 - Wheat projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.4.2Wheat projections: Consumption, food
A.4.2Wheat projections: Consumption, food
  Marketing year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt)
Growth (%) 4
FOOD (kt)
Growth (%) 4
FOOD (kg/cap)
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
722 388
 
815 281
 
1.70
 
0.93
 
491 525
 
551 883
 
1.22
 
0.94
 
66.9
 
67.2
 
0.03
 
-0.06
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
275 198
 
291 067
 
0.59
 
0.51
 
133 626
 
136 951
 
0.34
 
0.24
 
95.5
 
95.0
 
-0.08
 
-0.02
 
NORTH AMERICA
41 168
 
43 306
 
1.26
 
0.56
 
28 842
 
30 344
 
0.35
 
0.50
 
80.6
 
78.5
 
-0.47
 
-0.20
 
Canada
8 726
 
9 146
 
2.65
 
0.54
 
2 733
 
2 866
 
-0.36
 
0.40
 
76.1
 
72.9
 
-1.41
 
-0.39
 
United States
32 441
 
34 160
 
0.91
 
0.57
 
26 109
 
27 477
 
0.42
 
0.51
 
81.1
 
79.1
 
-0.37
 
-0.18
 
EUROPE
189 056
 
197 048
 
0.24
 
0.46
 
80 232
 
80 099
 
-0.01
 
0.03
 
108.6
 
108.5
 
-0.12
 
0.05
 
European Union
128 883
 
132 751
 
0.26
 
0.29
 
55 573
 
55 992
 
0.10
 
0.14
 
110.0
 
109.9
 
-0.07
 
0.07
 
Russia
40 276
 
43 797
 
0.24
 
0.94
 
14 433
 
13 910
 
-0.15
 
-0.33
 
100.6
 
98.8
 
-0.18
 
-0.12
 
Ukraine
11 452
 
11 721
 
-0.96
 
0.61
 
5 418
 
5 414
 
-0.67
 
-0.11
 
120.9
 
128.6
 
-0.29
 
0.48
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
8 483
 
10 751
 
2.97
 
-0.03
 
2 291
 
2 548
 
2.86
 
0.78
 
80.4
 
78.8
 
1.32
 
-0.33
 
Australia
7 537
 
9 661
 
2.70
 
-0.23
 
1 929
 
2 135
 
1.99
 
0.67
 
80.5
 
78.0
 
0.34
 
-0.50
 
New Zealand
946
 
1 090
 
5.44
 
1.94
 
362
 
413
 
9.11
 
1.39
 
79.9
 
83.3
 
8.24
 
0.56
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
36 491
 
39 962
 
1.16
 
0.87
 
22 261
 
23 961
 
1.41
 
0.59
 
81.5
 
84.2
 
0.77
 
0.26
 
Japan
6 589
 
6 424
 
0.91
 
-0.28
 
5 390
 
5 276
 
0.82
 
-0.24
 
42.6
 
43.1
 
0.90
 
0.09
 
Kazakhstan
7 094
 
8 039
 
-0.21
 
1.36
 
2 527
 
2 789
 
1.29
 
0.85
 
143.4
 
142.6
 
-0.16
 
-0.04
 
South Africa
3 296
 
3 636
 
1.45
 
0.67
 
3 153
 
3 443
 
1.30
 
0.66
 
57.9
 
58.6
 
0.16
 
0.01
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
447 191
 
524 214
 
2.44
 
1.17
 
357 899
 
414 932
 
1.57
 
1.18
 
60.2
 
61.3
 
0.18
 
0.02
 
AFRICA
68 340
 
84 575
 
3.69
 
1.93
 
55 991
 
70 306
 
2.64
 
2.10
 
49.5
 
47.6
 
-0.01
 
-0.33
 
NORTH AFRICA
46 060
 
54 239
 
3.44
 
1.39
 
36 166
 
42 930
 
2.11
 
1.52
 
197.6
 
199.6
 
0.31
 
0.10
 
Algeria
10 322
 
12 170
 
3.03
 
1.30
 
8 322
 
9 772
 
1.92
 
1.41
 
209.8
 
210.7
 
0.04
 
0.04
 
Egypt
20 867
 
24 914
 
3.44
 
1.53
 
17 400
 
21 277
 
2.30
 
1.80
 
190.2
 
192.4
 
0.18
 
0.12
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
22 279
 
30 336
 
4.22
 
2.97
 
19 826
 
27 376
 
3.67
 
3.10
 
20.9
 
21.7
 
0.82
 
0.46
 
Ethiopia
5 448
 
7 710
 
5.52
 
3.26
 
4 281
 
6 222
 
3.92
 
3.50
 
43.1
 
48.7
 
1.29
 
1.20
 
Ghana
529
 
643
 
7.97
 
2.02
 
379
 
478
 
3.14
 
2.47
 
13.9
 
13.9
 
0.66
 
0.44
 
Mozambique
571
 
827
 
6.88
 
3.53
 
561
 
816
 
6.55
 
3.57
 
20.0
 
21.8
 
3.61
 
0.88
 
Nigeria
3 971
 
5 026
 
3.26
 
2.50
 
3 571
 
4 593
 
3.71
 
2.66
 
19.6
 
19.2
 
0.98
 
0.18
 
Tanzania
806
 
1 221
 
4.29
 
3.76
 
790
 
1 202
 
4.81
 
3.79
 
14.8
 
16.2
 
1.55
 
0.79
 
Zambia
257
 
340
 
5.37
 
3.18
 
240
 
324
 
5.05
 
3.33
 
14.8
 
14.4
 
1.92
 
0.30
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
37 435
 
41 493
 
1.23
 
1.00
 
34 135
 
37 979
 
1.59
 
1.05
 
54.0
 
54.3
 
0.43
 
0.16
 
Argentina
5 833
 
6 464
 
2.13
 
0.99
 
5 100
 
5 738
 
1.28
 
1.09
 
117.5
 
119.8
 
0.24
 
0.21
 
Brazil
11 127
 
12 301
 
0.66
 
0.95
 
10 683
 
11 826
 
0.98
 
0.99
 
51.4
 
52.7
 
0.05
 
0.32
 
Chile
2 293
 
2 536
 
1.01
 
0.83
 
2 150
 
2 361
 
1.28
 
0.83
 
119.8
 
119.4
 
0.20
 
-0.03
 
Colombia
1 539
 
1 680
 
1.77
 
0.65
 
1 386
 
1 497
 
1.29
 
0.57
 
28.7
 
28.7
 
0.26
 
-0.11
 
Mexico
7 059
 
7 886
 
2.07
 
1.24
 
6 037
 
6 826
 
4.20
 
1.38
 
47.5
 
47.7
 
2.73
 
0.31
 
Paraguay
413
 
459
 
1.27
 
1.11
 
338
 
378
 
1.57
 
1.13
 
51.0
 
50.1
 
0.23
 
-0.02
 
Peru
2 000
 
2 241
 
2.14
 
0.96
 
1 900
 
2 129
 
2.24
 
0.95
 
60.6
 
60.0
 
0.92
 
-0.15
 
Uruguay
430
 
442
 
-4.38
 
0.29
 
385
 
394
 
-0.66
 
0.30
 
112.2
 
110.8
 
-1.00
 
-0.02
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
341 416
 
398 146
 
2.34
 
1.03
 
267 772
 
306 647
 
1.35
 
0.99
 
64.0
 
66.8
 
0.25
 
0.17
 
Bangladesh
5 181
 
7 098
 
7.10
 
1.68
 
4 047
 
5 524
 
4.36
 
2.04
 
25.1
 
30.6
 
3.14
 
1.01
 
China 2
119 633
 
135 530
 
1.14
 
0.41
 
88 500
 
90 164
 
0.21
 
0.12
 
64.3
 
63.7
 
-0.31
 
-0.09
 
India
93 362
 
109 267
 
2.90
 
1.27
 
78 100
 
95 690
 
1.57
 
1.20
 
59.6
 
64.9
 
0.26
 
0.14
 
Indonesia
8 646
 
10 614
 
7.18
 
1.13
 
6 446
 
7 136
 
4.69
 
0.76
 
25.0
 
24.9
 
3.36
 
-0.18
 
Iran
15 120
 
16 840
 
0.76
 
0.93
 
13 220
 
14 625
 
1.26
 
0.87
 
167.1
 
168.1
 
0.02
 
0.07
 
Korea
4 259
 
5 160
 
2.66
 
1.40
 
2 417
 
2 499
 
0.52
 
0.28
 
48.1
 
48.0
 
0.00
 
-0.02
 
Malaysia
1 382
 
1 617
 
4.42
 
1.20
 
958
 
1 112
 
1.85
 
1.15
 
31.6
 
32.0
 
0.28
 
-0.06
 
Pakistan
24 938
 
31 377
 
1.56
 
2.26
 
23 747
 
30 513
 
2.18
 
2.27
 
125.7
 
132.2
 
0.06
 
0.47
 
Philippines
4 977
 
5 668
 
8.02
 
1.09
 
2 352
 
2 785
 
2.04
 
1.46
 
23.4
 
23.7
 
0.47
 
0.06
 
Saudi Arabia
3 548
 
4 201
 
3.79
 
1.51
 
3 165
 
3 752
 
3.52
 
1.43
 
100.4
 
100.6
 
1.12
 
-0.03
 
Thailand
3 585
 
3 635
 
16.01
 
0.70
 
1 109
 
1 117
 
3.37
 
-0.12
 
16.3
 
16.3
 
3.04
 
-0.16
 
Turkey
22 183
 
23 905
 
1.96
 
0.64
 
16 433
 
17 775
 
1.50
 
0.60
 
209.1
 
208.1
 
-0.08
 
-0.06
 
Viet Nam
3 130
 
4 843
 
14.34
 
1.29
 
1 450
 
1 787
 
4.05
 
1.40
 
15.5
 
17.4
 
2.93
 
0.56
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
32 878
 
43 967
 
4.67
 
2.47
 
27 476
 
37 423
 
3.73
 
2.72
 
28.8
 
30.7
 
1.30
 
0.47
 
OECD 3
224 549
 
236 742
 
0.83
 
0.42
 
121 255
 
126 034
 
0.65
 
0.38
 
92.3
 
91.6
 
0.05
 
-0.02
 
BRICS
267 694
 
304 532
 
1.57
 
0.81
 
194 870
 
215 032
 
0.77
 
0.61
 
63.0
 
64.9
 
-0.09
 
0.01
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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