OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
A.9.1 | Soybean projections: Production and trade | ||||||||||||
A.9.1 | Soybean projections: Production and trade | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | PRODUCTION (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | IMPORTS (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | EXPORTS (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | ||||||
Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | ||
| WORLD | 325 633 | 401 320 | 4.87 | 1.91 | 135 658 | 176 995 | 7.51 | 2.12 | 136 978 | 176 995 | 7.70 | 2.12 |
| DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 127 327 | 141 146 | 5.24 | 1.15 | 21 510 | 22 474 | 1.10 | 0.77 | 58 891 | 66 068 | 6.40 | 0.68 |
| NORTH AMERICA | 116 610 | 126 755 | 4.60 | 1.03 | 1 043 | 938 | 8.10 | 0.09 | 55 850 | 61 853 | 5.82 | 0.58 |
| Canada | 6 294 | 7 351 | 9.99 | 2.15 | 299 | 251 | -1.87 | 0.07 | 4 101 | 5 061 | 11.39 | 2.68 |
| United States | 110 316 | 119 404 | 4.35 | 0.96 | 744 | 686 | 14.49 | 0.10 | 51 749 | 56 792 | 5.46 | 0.41 |
| EUROPE | 9 286 | 12 298 | 16.79 | 2.13 | 16 336 | 17 531 | 1.40 | 0.96 | 3 031 | 4 199 | 33.18 | 2.38 |
| European Union | 2 079 | 2 430 | 12.17 | 0.88 | 13 638 | 14 418 | -0.27 | 0.81 | 121 | 71 | 12.73 | 0.08 |
| Russia | 2 769 | 3 700 | 18.88 | 2.04 | 2 114 | 2 544 | 28.17 | 2.04 | 463 | 200 | 93.60 | -10.34 |
| Ukraine | 3 967 | 5 674 | 23.38 | 2.95 | 10 | 10 | 32.37 | 0.07 | 2 440 | 3 921 | 32.72 | 3.60 |
| OCEANIA DEVELOPED | 44 | 63 | -1.61 | 1.54 | 2 | 2 | -1.21 | 0.43 | 5 | 10 | 11.22 | 4.09 |
| Australia | 44 | 63 | -1.61 | 1.54 | 1 | 1 | -2.36 | 0.94 | 5 | 10 | 11.22 | 4.09 |
| New Zealand | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| OTHER DEVELOPED 1 | 1 387 | 2 030 | 11.18 | 3.30 | 4 130 | 4 004 | -1.56 | 0.17 | 6 | 7 | -22.11 | -0.02 |
| Japan | 244 | 244 | 0.27 | -0.44 | 3 170 | 2 951 | -2.64 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | .. | 0.00 |
| Kazakhstan | 219 | 254 | 14.74 | 1.40 | 10 | 3 | -15.94 | -11.01 | 0 | 0 | -59.85 | 1.03 |
| South Africa | 920 | 1 530 | 16.25 | 4.43 | 172 | 250 | 29.76 | 0.17 | 6 | 7 | -4.20 | -0.02 |
| DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 198 307 | 260 174 | 4.65 | 2.36 | 114 148 | 154 521 | 9.22 | 2.33 | 78 086 | 110 927 | 8.80 | 3.09 |
| AFRICA | 1 272 | 1 426 | 1.82 | 1.15 | 3 035 | 3 944 | 4.71 | 1.40 | 46 | 27 | 1.60 | -0.75 |
| NORTH AFRICA | 70 | 78 | 2.16 | 0.99 | 2 946 | 3 835 | 4.68 | 1.33 | 17 | 0 | 75.65 | -1.19 |
| Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.77 | 313 | 458 | 24.81 | 3.35 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -3.24 |
| Egypt | 40 | 48 | 5.41 | 1.71 | 1 560 | 2 185 | 0.79 | 1.20 | 17 | 0 | 89.90 | -1.19 |
| SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | 1 202 | 1 348 | 1.81 | 1.16 | 89 | 109 | 5.59 | 4.22 | 29 | 27 | -3.33 | -0.75 |
| Ethiopia | 71 | 84 | 21.93 | 1.65 | 17 | 45 | 27.75 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.44 |
| Ghana | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.83 |
| Mozambique | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.64 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.17 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.16 |
| Nigeria | 650 | 700 | 0.14 | 0.76 | 10 | 0 | 47.01 | 82.28 | 1 | 0 | -37.23 | -46.83 |
| Tanzania | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 6 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| Zambia | 13 | 13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN | 174 153 | 228 373 | 5.75 | 2.46 | 7 340 | 7 728 | 3.29 | 0.51 | 77 496 | 110 386 | 8.89 | 3.11 |
| Argentina | 59 320 | 70 064 | 3.58 | 2.06 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 14 179 | 16 459 | 4.63 | 1.99 |
| Brazil | 99 390 | 137 278 | 6.94 | 2.65 | 828 | 806 | 38.04 | -0.25 | 55 105 | 82 808 | 11.38 | 3.36 |
| Chile | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.54 | 350 | 378 | 7.04 | 0.59 | 2 | 2 | -2.19 | -0.59 |
| Colombia | 70 | 77 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 800 | 915 | 8.26 | 0.99 | 33 | 0 | 29.50 | -0.98 |
| Mexico | 356 | 346 | 16.23 | 0.17 | 4 049 | 4 744 | 1.69 | 1.15 | 0 | 0 | 4.16 | 0.00 |
| Paraguay | 9 217 | 12 414 | 6.39 | 2.61 | 2 | 0 | -54.90 | -0.11 | 5 077 | 7 065 | 2.87 | 3.05 |
| Peru | 5 | 5 | 5.08 | 0.00 | 362 | 416 | 23.36 | 0.74 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.74 |
| Uruguay | 2 957 | 3 909 | 13.57 | 2.62 | 1 | 1 | -13.53 | -0.46 | 2 937 | 3 859 | 14.10 | 2.64 |
| ASIA and PACIFIC | 22 882 | 30 375 | -1.38 | 1.63 | 103 772 | 142 849 | 9.93 | 2.46 | 544 | 514 | 1.79 | -0.15 |
| Bangladesh | 68 | 77 | 1.71 | 1.02 | 931 | 1 411 | 31.65 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| China 2 | 12 185 | 15 803 | -2.30 | 1.37 | 84 360 | 117 156 | 10.22 | 2.64 | 300 | 300 | -3.09 | 0.00 |
| India | 8 667 | 12 231 | -0.36 | 2.03 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 35 | 54 | 3.41 | 3.49 |
| Indonesia | 918 | 1 099 | 2.59 | 2.00 | 2 361 | 3 055 | 7.62 | 2.06 | 2 | 2 | 353.01 | -0.18 |
| Iran | 180 | 202 | -2.00 | 1.31 | 1 752 | 2 226 | 8.80 | 1.10 | 97 | 60 | 62.25 | -1.09 |
| Korea | 117 | 134 | -0.63 | 0.48 | 1 350 | 1 477 | 1.67 | 0.61 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Malaysia | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.34 | 697 | 820 | 2.82 | 0.58 | 30 | 27 | 9.20 | -0.58 |
| Pakistan | 6 | 6 | -9.07 | 1.49 | 1 183 | 2 319 | 26.61 | 1.94 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.90 |
| Philippines | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 111 | 153 | 13.11 | 1.82 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.79 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.62 | 500 | 511 | 857.31 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.22 |
| Thailand | 53 | 62 | -16.47 | 1.60 | 2 551 | 3 134 | 5.74 | 1.32 | 17 | 17 | 14.40 | -1.30 |
| Turkey | 153 | 177 | 22.92 | 1.03 | 2 299 | 3 312 | 7.99 | 2.79 | 30 | 26 | 590.80 | -2.72 |
| Viet Nam | 151 | 131 | -7.87 | -1.63 | 1 648 | 2 322 | 51.09 | 1.92 | 1 | 1 | 64.14 | -0.24 |
| LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 630 | 738 | 1.78 | 1.57 | 1 124 | 1 984 | 28.16 | 3.78 | 11 | 7 | 0.00 | -3.71 |
| OECD 3 | 119 614 | 130 159 | 4.72 | 1.02 | 27 103 | 29 441 | 0.81 | 0.93 | 56 008 | 61 961 | 5.84 | 0.57 |
| BRICS | 123 930 | 170 542 | 5.23 | 2.48 | 87 475 | 120 757 | 10.57 | 2.60 | 55 909 | 83 369 | 11.30 | 3.29 |
Not available | |||||||||||||
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. | |||||||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |