1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.20.1 - Sheep meat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.20.1Sheep meat projections: Production and trade
A.20.1Sheep meat projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
PRODUCTION (kt cwe) 4
Growth (%) 5
IMPORTS (kt cwe) 6
Growth (%) 5
EXPORTS (kt cwe) 6
Growth (%) 5
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
14 318
 
17 515
 
1.27
 
1.97
 
997
 
1 096
 
1.63
 
1.66
 
1 069
 
1 157
 
1.04
 
1.91
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
3 393
 
3 662
 
0.05
 
1.00
 
370
 
379
 
-3.33
 
0.51
 
975
 
1 020
 
1.31
 
1.66
 
NORTH AMERICA
92
 
97
 
-1.42
 
0.61
 
116
 
106
 
0.89
 
0.07
 
12
 
12
 
11.20
 
-0.27
 
Canada
17
 
16
 
1.03
 
0.13
 
21
 
22
 
-1.32
 
0.40
 
0
 
0
 
-9.09
 
-0.79
 
United States
75
 
80
 
-1.90
 
0.71
 
94
 
84
 
1.46
 
-0.01
 
12
 
12
 
12.01
 
-0.26
 
EUROPE
1 273
 
1 352
 
-0.58
 
0.33
 
216
 
239
 
-4.16
 
1.09
 
32
 
33
 
16.34
 
1.17
 
European Union
951
 
1 011
 
-1.27
 
0.29
 
199
 
227
 
-4.17
 
1.18
 
24
 
25
 
22.97
 
2.49
 
Russia
192
 
203
 
1.40
 
0.48
 
8
 
4
 
-6.22
 
-1.44
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Ukraine
19
 
23
 
1.81
 
1.85
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
-0.13
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.04
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
1 211
 
1 311
 
-0.77
 
1.69
 
5
 
5
 
-3.94
 
0.00
 
930
 
974
 
0.90
 
1.71
 
Australia
725
 
804
 
0.11
 
1.90
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
450
 
484
 
2.64
 
2.28
 
New Zealand
485
 
507
 
-1.97
 
1.36
 
5
 
5
 
-3.94
 
0.00
 
480
 
490
 
-0.54
 
1.16
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
817
 
903
 
2.82
 
1.10
 
33
 
28
 
-8.72
 
-2.10
 
1
 
1
 
90.74
 
0.65
 
Japan
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
20
 
17
 
-9.04
 
-2.47
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
161
 
186
 
3.06
 
1.63
 
0
 
0
 
25.34
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.33
 
South Africa
170
 
185
 
1.01
 
1.18
 
11
 
7
 
-9.69
 
-4.30
 
1
 
1
 
152.02
 
0.65
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
10 926
 
13 853
 
1.68
 
2.25
 
627
 
718
 
5.85
 
2.32
 
94
 
136
 
-1.05
 
4.00
 
AFRICA
3 000
 
3 917
 
1.99
 
2.72
 
20
 
33
 
-6.44
 
5.64
 
33
 
54
 
6.72
 
5.41
 
NORTH AFRICA
704
 
900
 
2.58
 
2.37
 
8
 
15
 
-6.32
 
8.36
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-2.23
 
Algeria
314
 
394
 
6.51
 
2.12
 
4
 
4
 
44.32
 
0.53
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.19
 
Egypt
132
 
181
 
-0.40
 
3.06
 
2
 
1
 
-7.13
 
-1.10
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.40
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
2 296
 
3 017
 
1.81
 
2.83
 
12
 
18
 
-5.85
 
3.78
 
33
 
54
 
6.72
 
5.41
 
Ethiopia
163
 
224
 
1.29
 
3.57
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.03
 
17
 
36
 
14.34
 
8.51
 
Ghana
42
 
61
 
6.87
 
3.65
 
3
 
7
 
-8.87
 
5.96
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.43
 
Mozambique
25
 
39
 
1.33
 
4.58
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
2.28
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-4.12
 
Nigeria
480
 
634
 
2.06
 
2.73
 
0
 
0
 
30.61
 
-1.25
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.27
 
Tanzania
65
 
107
 
5.82
 
4.96
 
0
 
0
 
74.87
 
4.34
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-8.34
 
Zambia
10
 
14
 
2.68
 
3.99
 
0
 
0
 
-81.06
 
22.47
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-18.35
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
380
 
419
 
0.80
 
0.80
 
26
 
26
 
-7.40
 
1.01
 
19
 
18
 
-6.86
 
1.43
 
Argentina
61
 
67
 
1.02
 
0.79
 
0
 
0
 
-0.08
 
0.00
 
2
 
2
 
-14.92
 
-1.75
 
Brazil
85
 
86
 
1.09
 
-0.04
 
7
 
7
 
..
 
0.17
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Chile
14
 
15
 
-2.15
 
0.37
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.01
 
5
 
5
 
0.56
 
-1.00
 
Colombia
11
 
14
 
-0.46
 
1.17
 
0
 
0
 
-24.59
 
0.75
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.74
 
Mexico
59
 
67
 
2.05
 
1.30
 
11
 
9
 
-11.94
 
-1.80
 
0
 
0
 
23.93
 
2.43
 
Paraguay
4
 
5
 
3.74
 
1.78
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
8.18
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-7.56
 
Peru
44
 
52
 
1.21
 
1.35
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.17
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.35
 
Uruguay
34
 
39
 
0.26
 
1.58
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.17
 
11
 
11
 
-7.36
 
3.50
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
7 546
 
9 517
 
1.60
 
2.13
 
581
 
659
 
7.77
 
2.23
 
42
 
65
 
-2.39
 
3.71
 
Bangladesh
213
 
288
 
2.48
 
2.86
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.02
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.52
 
China 2
4 372
 
5 694
 
2.03
 
2.32
 
244
 
241
 
24.47
 
2.14
 
3
 
8
 
-20.91
 
9.15
 
India
736
 
789
 
-1.13
 
0.75
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.66
 
22
 
42
 
4.16
 
5.86
 
Indonesia
116
 
141
 
-0.61
 
2.02
 
3
 
6
 
13.60
 
7.69
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.66
 
Iran
305
 
376
 
-0.99
 
2.22
 
1
 
1
 
122.72
 
2.15
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.67
 
Korea
1
 
1
 
-8.44
 
0.00
 
9
 
11
 
11.12
 
0.95
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
1
 
1
 
0.13
 
-0.91
 
34
 
45
 
9.11
 
1.74
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.71
 
Pakistan
467
 
573
 
1.64
 
2.00
 
0
 
0
 
-39.84
 
0.37
 
12
 
10
 
6.28
 
-2.66
 
Philippines
56
 
65
 
0.83
 
1.54
 
1
 
3
 
372.92
 
10.77
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-3.36
 
Saudi Arabia
0
 
0
 
-74.35
 
5.31
 
59
 
73
 
0.54
 
2.51
 
2
 
2
 
-5.61
 
-2.44
 
Thailand
2
 
2
 
0.10
 
0.26
 
1
 
2
 
3.85
 
0.92
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.91
 
Turkey
365
 
415
 
2.41
 
1.18
 
1
 
1
 
66.22
 
-0.85
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.67
 
Viet Nam
8
 
9
 
-2.55
 
1.55
 
4
 
8
 
6.02
 
6.51
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-6.11
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
2 165
 
2 893
 
2.50
 
2.98
 
3
 
2
 
-8.79
 
-2.07
 
23
 
43
 
17.25
 
7.03
 
OECD 3
2 736
 
2 964
 
-0.52
 
1.06
 
372
 
389
 
-3.18
 
0.59
 
971
 
1 017
 
1.26
 
1.68
 
BRICS
5 556
 
6 956
 
1.50
 
2.01
 
270
 
259
 
17.31
 
1.78
 
26
 
51
 
-3.80
 
6.19
 
..
Not available
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Gross indigenous production.
5.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
6.
Excludes trade of live animals.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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