1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

English Chinese, Spanish, French

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.7.1 - Rice projections: Production and trade

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.7.1Rice projections: Production and trade
A.7.1Rice projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 5
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 5
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 5
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
494 853
 
560 919
 
1.42
 
1.14
 
43 582
 
50 768
 
4.67
 
2.03
 
44 013
 
51 200
 
5.14
 
2.01
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
18 094
 
18 646
 
0.58
 
0.57
 
5 309
 
5 862
 
2.29
 
0.81
 
4 240
 
4 950
 
1.75
 
1.64
 
NORTH AMERICA
6 729
 
7 160
 
0.07
 
1.07
 
1 159
 
1 358
 
1.85
 
1.69
 
3 319
 
3 903
 
0.17
 
1.36
 
Canada
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
399
 
440
 
1.38
 
0.81
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
United States
6 729
 
7 160
 
0.07
 
1.07
 
760
 
918
 
2.15
 
2.14
 
3 319
 
3 903
 
0.17
 
1.36
 
EUROPE
2 528
 
2 640
 
1.12
 
0.45
 
1 845
 
2 044
 
3.24
 
0.96
 
442
 
450
 
12.25
 
0.96
 
European Union
1 733
 
1 725
 
0.15
 
0.10
 
1 304
 
1 461
 
4.16
 
1.01
 
255
 
251
 
9.67
 
0.36
 
Russia
735
 
836
 
4.66
 
1.12
 
223
 
260
 
-0.33
 
2.09
 
180
 
191
 
22.90
 
1.82
 
Ukraine
40
 
55
 
-7.70
 
1.16
 
81
 
72
 
1.06
 
-1.13
 
1
 
2
 
-9.11
 
0.69
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
391
 
547
 
33.72
 
4.42
 
211
 
232
 
-0.44
 
0.21
 
312
 
400
 
22.21
 
6.35
 
Australia
391
 
547
 
33.72
 
4.42
 
165
 
182
 
-0.99
 
0.08
 
312
 
400
 
22.21
 
6.35
 
New Zealand
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
47
 
50
 
1.83
 
0.69
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
8 446
 
8 299
 
0.25
 
0.00
 
2 094
 
2 228
 
2.06
 
0.23
 
168
 
197
 
-1.29
 
2.08
 
Japan
7 862
 
7 631
 
0.01
 
-0.11
 
780
 
752
 
0.03
 
-0.42
 
101
 
134
 
-5.45
 
2.40
 
Kazakhstan
277
 
289
 
5.04
 
0.95
 
27
 
33
 
7.18
 
-1.48
 
66
 
63
 
15.36
 
1.50
 
South Africa
2
 
2
 
0.00
 
1.41
 
828
 
950
 
2.39
 
0.65
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.65
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
476 760
 
542 273
 
1.45
 
1.16
 
38 273
 
44 906
 
5.05
 
2.21
 
39 773
 
46 250
 
5.56
 
2.06
 
AFRICA
19 207
 
24 014
 
3.43
 
1.56
 
13 590
 
19 914
 
6.17
 
4.06
 
604
 
573
 
-1.56
 
-5.01
 
NORTH AFRICA
4 264
 
4 986
 
-0.34
 
1.09
 
493
 
664
 
4.83
 
1.81
 
399
 
419
 
-2.00
 
-4.35
 
Algeria
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
1.76
 
115
 
146
 
4.33
 
1.52
 
0
 
0
 
4.34
 
-1.50
 
Egypt
4 239
 
4 958
 
-0.34
 
1.09
 
102
 
198
 
19.83
 
2.34
 
398
 
419
 
-1.96
 
-4.35
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
14 943
 
19 027
 
4.93
 
1.69
 
13 097
 
19 250
 
6.21
 
4.14
 
205
 
154
 
3.60
 
-6.63
 
Ethiopia
85
 
105
 
7.13
 
1.56
 
256
 
382
 
34.72
 
3.80
 
0
 
0
 
-25.62
 
-0.27
 
Ghana
387
 
472
 
12.70
 
1.45
 
668
 
931
 
6.05
 
2.36
 
0
 
0
 
-37.51
 
-0.17
 
Mozambique
239
 
196
 
7.68
 
1.12
 
563
 
883
 
6.09
 
3.27
 
1
 
1
 
39.32
 
-0.32
 
Nigeria
2 920
 
3 687
 
4.49
 
2.03
 
2 743
 
3 491
 
5.55
 
3.42
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.24
 
Tanzania
1 956
 
2 539
 
10.40
 
1.05
 
190
 
637
 
26.63
 
16.58
 
59
 
35
 
3.30
 
-13.98
 
Zambia
23
 
24
 
1.62
 
1.67
 
17
 
36
 
5.64
 
4.84
 
0
 
0
 
17.46
 
-0.78
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
18 382
 
20 613
 
0.76
 
1.00
 
4 158
 
4 249
 
2.69
 
0.50
 
3 210
 
3 804
 
5.86
 
1.40
 
Argentina
1 029
 
1 278
 
3.24
 
2.50
 
7
 
8
 
-2.96
 
0.00
 
451
 
679
 
-0.47
 
2.46
 
Brazil
7 973
 
8 384
 
-0.41
 
0.46
 
593
 
570
 
-0.12
 
0.51
 
825
 
923
 
11.56
 
0.92
 
Chile
106
 
136
 
4.70
 
1.35
 
122
 
112
 
0.37
 
0.21
 
4
 
2
 
30.20
 
-0.16
 
Colombia
1 473
 
1 927
 
-0.44
 
0.85
 
222
 
32
 
22.04
 
-5.94
 
0
 
0
 
-64.90
 
0.44
 
Mexico
158
 
146
 
-1.36
 
-0.28
 
878
 
1 024
 
1.11
 
1.38
 
2
 
2
 
-21.36
 
0.00
 
Paraguay
560
 
766
 
24.31
 
2.78
 
1
 
1
 
3.58
 
-0.23
 
444
 
666
 
27.88
 
3.04
 
Peru
2 087
 
2 517
 
2.08
 
1.28
 
252
 
158
 
14.11
 
-2.86
 
3
 
11
 
-45.73
 
0.24
 
Uruguay
945
 
1 080
 
1.28
 
1.15
 
1
 
1
 
19.55
 
-0.12
 
834
 
979
 
0.63
 
1.21
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
439 171
 
497 646
 
1.40
 
1.15
 
20 525
 
20 743
 
4.87
 
1.03
 
35 960
 
41 873
 
5.75
 
2.26
 
Bangladesh
34 855
 
41 047
 
2.43
 
1.51
 
739
 
281
 
-8.72
 
6.82
 
13
 
0
 
-54.65
 
-1.27
 
China 2
141 947
 
145 438
 
1.19
 
0.33
 
5 824
 
4 906
 
48.12
 
0.87
 
360
 
425
 
-12.89
 
1.32
 
India
106 250
 
126 062
 
1.58
 
1.48
 
1
 
1
 
42.76
 
-0.06
 
10 854
 
10 199
 
20.62
 
0.85
 
Indonesia
45 120
 
52 007
 
2.47
 
1.44
 
1 183
 
872
 
7.13
 
-4.97
 
0
 
1
 
-7.16
 
0.74
 
Iran
1 709
 
2 035
 
2.00
 
1.56
 
941
 
1 137
 
-2.20
 
0.20
 
0
 
0
 
-40.20
 
-0.01
 
Korea
4 255
 
3 729
 
-1.25
 
-1.03
 
412
 
460
 
6.00
 
1.23
 
3
 
2
 
-24.66
 
0.00
 
Pakistan
6 818
 
8 065
 
1.50
 
2.21
 
41
 
39
 
5.39
 
-0.27
 
4 101
 
4 561
 
3.54
 
1.82
 
Philippines
11 969
 
14 872
 
1.55
 
1.97
 
1 557
 
1 247
 
-5.91
 
-1.39
 
1
 
1
 
11.67
 
0.10
 
Thailand
20 534
 
26 772
 
-0.60
 
1.85
 
255
 
294
 
-2.20
 
2.11
 
10 117
 
12 305
 
0.07
 
3.23
 
Turkey
534
 
605
 
3.19
 
0.79
 
248
 
262
 
-0.08
 
0.20
 
36
 
26
 
13.76
 
-0.20
 
Viet Nam
28 989
 
33 332
 
2.37
 
1.03
 
528
 
721
 
0.39
 
4.61
 
7 553
 
9 628
 
5.47
 
1.60
 
LDC Asia 3
28 411
 
34 817
 
-0.19
 
1.85
 
1 618
 
1 750
 
8.50
 
3.55
 
2 782
 
4 630
 
9.18
 
5.66
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
74 280
 
90 086
 
1.65
 
1.66
 
9 623
 
13 390
 
4.63
 
4.78
 
2 965
 
4 762
 
8.74
 
4.99
 
OECD 4
21 768
 
21 680
 
0.08
 
0.23
 
5 389
 
5 986
 
2.06
 
0.96
 
4 031
 
4 720
 
1.05
 
1.63
 
BRICS
256 907
 
280 723
 
1.30
 
0.84
 
7 470
 
6 686
 
21.42
 
0.85
 
12 219
 
11 738
 
15.71
 
0.89
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
LDC Asia includes Afghanistan, Bhutan, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic, Nepal, Yemen, Timor Leste, Maldives.
4.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
5.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error