1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.11.1 - Protein meal projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.11.1Protein meal projections: Production and trade
A.11.1Protein meal projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 4
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 4
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
314 513
 
384 265
 
4.17
 
1.69
 
83 632
 
103 046
 
3.39
 
1.50
 
90 018
 
103 046
 
4.14
 
1.50
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
101 241
 
114 019
 
2.64
 
1.02
 
38 224
 
43 193
 
0.62
 
0.59
 
22 761
 
26 436
 
6.62
 
1.48
 
NORTH AMERICA
52 181
 
58 847
 
1.89
 
1.03
 
4 730
 
5 424
 
6.76
 
1.06
 
15 478
 
16 552
 
5.28
 
1.24
 
Canada
6 079
 
7 290
 
7.25
 
1.15
 
803
 
896
 
-6.17
 
1.42
 
4 229
 
5 304
 
10.81
 
1.45
 
United States
46 103
 
51 557
 
1.32
 
1.02
 
3 927
 
4 528
 
12.27
 
0.99
 
11 250
 
11 248
 
3.70
 
1.14
 
EUROPE
41 936
 
47 313
 
3.98
 
1.04
 
26 979
 
30 134
 
-0.86
 
0.38
 
7 091
 
9 777
 
10.74
 
1.98
 
European Union
28 364
 
28 795
 
1.74
 
0.24
 
25 505
 
28 230
 
-0.87
 
0.27
 
1 005
 
904
 
5.07
 
-2.38
 
Russia
6 965
 
9 022
 
9.14
 
2.22
 
401
 
647
 
-7.40
 
4.20
 
1 625
 
1 798
 
10.44
 
0.74
 
Ukraine
6 195
 
9 039
 
13.23
 
2.75
 
32
 
28
 
-10.87
 
-0.34
 
4 293
 
6 964
 
13.07
 
3.16
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
908
 
980
 
5.72
 
0.16
 
2 938
 
3 830
 
10.35
 
2.22
 
53
 
25
 
13.13
 
0.00
 
Australia
900
 
971
 
5.80
 
0.16
 
771
 
1 123
 
2.59
 
3.02
 
37
 
25
 
8.06
 
0.00
 
New Zealand
9
 
9
 
-0.32
 
0.00
 
2 167
 
2 707
 
15.37
 
1.91
 
17
 
0
 
189.80
 
0.00
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
6 216
 
6 879
 
0.42
 
0.80
 
3 577
 
3 806
 
0.62
 
0.08
 
139
 
83
 
-7.02
 
-4.47
 
Japan
3 401
 
3 293
 
-1.87
 
-0.49
 
1 951
 
2 059
 
0.27
 
-0.54
 
1
 
0
 
-47.25
 
0.00
 
Kazakhstan
343
 
346
 
3.28
 
0.89
 
5
 
8
 
-7.33
 
4.34
 
92
 
44
 
-5.37
 
-7.10
 
South Africa
1 207
 
1 777
 
11.63
 
2.99
 
939
 
877
 
-2.04
 
-0.34
 
24
 
20
 
-7.92
 
0.13
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
213 272
 
270 246
 
4.97
 
1.99
 
45 408
 
59 852
 
6.32
 
2.22
 
67 257
 
76 610
 
3.42
 
1.51
 
AFRICA
5 692
 
6 842
 
2.72
 
1.28
 
5 094
 
7 095
 
12.62
 
3.20
 
483
 
459
 
1.32
 
-1.42
 
NORTH AFRICA
2 709
 
3 440
 
4.44
 
1.30
 
4 481
 
6 298
 
12.48
 
3.16
 
8
 
9
 
7.12
 
-0.35
 
Algeria
331
 
445
 
14.46
 
2.74
 
1 405
 
1 891
 
10.74
 
2.17
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.15
 
Egypt
1 374
 
1 880
 
0.79
 
1.24
 
1 674
 
2 018
 
23.10
 
2.62
 
4
 
5
 
9.29
 
-0.24
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
2 983
 
3 402
 
1.37
 
1.26
 
613
 
796
 
13.45
 
3.54
 
475
 
451
 
1.24
 
-1.44
 
Ethiopia
59
 
84
 
11.70
 
2.86
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
42.23
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-29.69
 
Ghana
70
 
62
 
5.72
 
0.55
 
12
 
41
 
0.00
 
6.69
 
2
 
1
 
0.00
 
-6.16
 
Mozambique
38
 
42
 
0.00
 
1.20
 
26
 
22
 
6.37
 
-1.80
 
4
 
5
 
0.00
 
1.82
 
Nigeria
952
 
1 074
 
1.54
 
1.31
 
320
 
402
 
33.35
 
3.47
 
179
 
130
 
4.17
 
-3.35
 
Tanzania
181
 
175
 
3.11
 
1.02
 
20
 
81
 
274.06
 
10.82
 
34
 
8
 
-4.40
 
-9.77
 
Zambia
35
 
33
 
0.99
 
0.59
 
7
 
13
 
0.00
 
2.01
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.14
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
80 763
 
97 863
 
3.65
 
1.87
 
9 808
 
12 404
 
4.57
 
1.57
 
54 283
 
64 192
 
4.42
 
1.98
 
Argentina
36 438
 
43 554
 
3.50
 
2.07
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
32 836
 
38 151
 
3.97
 
2.12
 
Brazil
33 115
 
40 556
 
3.17
 
1.64
 
4
 
5
 
-36.93
 
0.00
 
16 833
 
20 880
 
3.80
 
1.88
 
Chile
325
 
352
 
5.43
 
0.54
 
1 182
 
1 680
 
5.00
 
2.81
 
1
 
1
 
-27.91
 
-0.26
 
Colombia
807
 
986
 
5.98
 
1.28
 
1 244
 
1 578
 
10.52
 
2.28
 
97
 
72
 
6.30
 
-2.23
 
Mexico
4 358
 
5 340
 
3.04
 
2.23
 
2 364
 
3 584
 
5.84
 
2.00
 
20
 
20
 
6.61
 
0.00
 
Paraguay
3 230
 
4 143
 
12.55
 
2.07
 
2
 
2
 
-3.72
 
-0.20
 
2 683
 
3 309
 
17.80
 
2.22
 
Peru
327
 
362
 
16.96
 
0.76
 
1 036
 
1 521
 
5.11
 
3.24
 
5
 
5
 
7.06
 
-0.80
 
Uruguay
128
 
155
 
0.70
 
1.32
 
180
 
217
 
3.31
 
-0.30
 
4
 
5
 
-7.85
 
0.15
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
126 817
 
165 541
 
6.02
 
2.09
 
30 505
 
40 354
 
6.07
 
2.26
 
12 491
 
11 959
 
-0.03
 
-0.56
 
Bangladesh
1 001
 
1 429
 
14.24
 
2.88
 
542
 
1 112
 
11.95
 
6.11
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.42
 
China 2
82 770
 
109 358
 
7.93
 
2.32
 
897
 
1 110
 
-2.42
 
0.01
 
1 847
 
2 156
 
10.17
 
2.71
 
India
14 006
 
17 514
 
-0.76
 
1.55
 
239
 
447
 
24.20
 
2.03
 
1 635
 
849
 
-15.04
 
-5.84
 
Indonesia
6 732
 
8 722
 
6.52
 
2.06
 
4 290
 
5 023
 
7.47
 
0.88
 
4 347
 
4 117
 
6.67
 
-0.88
 
Iran
1 700
 
2 263
 
6.07
 
1.23
 
1 722
 
2 812
 
3.38
 
5.20
 
53
 
37
 
-11.65
 
-3.31
 
Korea
920
 
1 001
 
2.05
 
0.50
 
3 857
 
4 198
 
2.45
 
0.85
 
173
 
200
 
37.16
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
3 214
 
4 093
 
1.20
 
1.38
 
1 313
 
1 156
 
5.17
 
-0.75
 
2 646
 
3 074
 
1.96
 
0.75
 
Pakistan
3 415
 
4 824
 
4.87
 
2.00
 
611
 
760
 
5.84
 
4.23
 
295
 
295
 
16.23
 
-4.05
 
Philippines
938
 
1 170
 
0.10
 
1.70
 
2 676
 
3 481
 
6.78
 
1.74
 
509
 
427
 
1.27
 
-1.71
 
Saudi Arabia
453
 
490
 
49.11
 
0.43
 
970
 
2 079
 
8.62
 
5.54
 
2
 
5
 
-28.57
 
-0.53
 
Thailand
2 272
 
2 865
 
4.92
 
1.43
 
3 135
 
3 583
 
3.08
 
1.40
 
7
 
7
 
-3.38
 
-0.13
 
Turkey
3 559
 
4 553
 
6.25
 
2.05
 
1 801
 
2 105
 
13.46
 
0.51
 
85
 
78
 
11.83
 
-0.23
 
Viet Nam
1 440
 
2 013
 
24.90
 
1.73
 
5 244
 
8 263
 
10.12
 
3.58
 
93
 
62
 
34.55
 
-3.39
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
3 116
 
4 150
 
4.59
 
2.10
 
810
 
1 482
 
9.87
 
5.50
 
238
 
253
 
1.67
 
-1.35
 
OECD 3
94 017
 
103 161
 
1.92
 
0.84
 
44 929
 
51 889
 
1.56
 
0.73
 
16 819
 
17 782
 
5.40
 
0.99
 
BRICS
138 062
 
178 227
 
5.58
 
2.09
 
2 480
 
3 085
 
-3.32
 
0.94
 
21 963
 
25 703
 
1.52
 
1.47
 
Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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