1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.18.1 - Pigmeat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.18.1Pigmeat projections: Production and trade
A.18.1Pigmeat projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
PRODUCTION (kt cwe) 4
Growth (%) 5
IMPORTS (kt cwe) 6
Growth (%) 5
EXPORTS (kt cwe) 6
Growth (%) 5
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
116 907
 
127 526
 
1.73
 
0.89
 
7 017
 
7 624
 
3.80
 
0.41
 
7 029
 
7 679
 
3.48
 
0.55
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
43 006
 
45 596
 
0.77
 
0.37
 
2 919
 
3 017
 
-1.00
 
0.43
 
5 992
 
6 566
 
4.19
 
0.52
 
NORTH AMERICA
12 789
 
14 542
 
0.93
 
0.79
 
693
 
796
 
2.47
 
1.49
 
3 543
 
3 986
 
3.19
 
0.83
 
Canada
2 005
 
2 120
 
-0.44
 
0.54
 
207
 
281
 
2.23
 
2.18
 
1 260
 
1 397
 
1.94
 
0.47
 
United States
10 784
 
12 422
 
1.21
 
0.83
 
487
 
515
 
2.57
 
1.14
 
2 282
 
2 589
 
3.98
 
1.03
 
EUROPE
28 108
 
28 869
 
0.81
 
0.16
 
572
 
505
 
-8.22
 
-0.21
 
2 380
 
2 510
 
5.88
 
0.04
 
European Union
23 194
 
23 342
 
0.22
 
0.04
 
13
 
23
 
-15.21
 
4.80
 
2 281
 
2 419
 
5.89
 
0.02
 
Russia
3 074
 
3 590
 
5.96
 
0.77
 
425
 
320
 
-8.21
 
-2.06
 
4
 
5
 
52.81
 
0.00
 
Ukraine
733
 
712
 
3.04
 
0.55
 
18
 
80
 
-26.82
 
16.64
 
16
 
0
 
173.20
 
-16.47
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
418
 
498
 
0.51
 
1.58
 
366
 
412
 
3.91
 
1.19
 
43
 
54
 
-3.38
 
2.38
 
Australia
372
 
433
 
0.74
 
1.32
 
310
 
358
 
3.59
 
1.56
 
43
 
54
 
-3.39
 
2.40
 
New Zealand
46
 
65
 
-1.20
 
3.51
 
56
 
54
 
5.79
 
-0.95
 
0
 
0
 
0.13
 
-2.79
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
1 692
 
1 686
 
-1.00
 
0.00
 
1 288
 
1 304
 
0.89
 
-0.15
 
26
 
16
 
26.88
 
-2.99
 
Japan
1 263
 
1 259
 
0.03
 
-0.06
 
1 187
 
1 180
 
1.06
 
-0.42
 
1
 
1
 
-8.21
 
0.00
 
Kazakhstan
100
 
101
 
-10.12
 
0.34
 
7
 
17
 
-17.87
 
14.54
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.86
 
South Africa
234
 
226
 
-1.47
 
-0.07
 
32
 
45
 
0.84
 
3.24
 
26
 
15
 
32.69
 
-3.14
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
73 901
 
81 930
 
2.33
 
1.20
 
4 098
 
4 607
 
8.72
 
0.40
 
1 037
 
1 113
 
0.17
 
0.72
 
AFRICA
1 132
 
1 379
 
3.85
 
2.13
 
269
 
368
 
9.43
 
3.47
 
4
 
0
 
-5.77
 
-14.06
 
NORTH AFRICA
28
 
32
 
16.08
 
1.36
 
0
 
0
 
-34.32
 
26.32
 
1
 
0
 
42.81
 
-6.13
 
Algeria
3
 
3
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Egypt
21
 
24
 
37.96
 
1.46
 
0
 
0
 
-39.84
 
41.56
 
1
 
0
 
52.90
 
-26.38
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
1 104
 
1 347
 
3.66
 
2.15
 
269
 
368
 
9.48
 
3.47
 
3
 
0
 
-7.79
 
-14.07
 
Ethiopia
2
 
3
 
0.00
 
4.79
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
47.16
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-32.05
 
Ghana
23
 
25
 
4.31
 
0.64
 
4
 
16
 
-0.84
 
10.92
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.85
 
Mozambique
134
 
167
 
5.32
 
1.88
 
3
 
27
 
74.86
 
27.41
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-13.59
 
Nigeria
256
 
321
 
2.39
 
2.51
 
1
 
2
 
607.44
 
8.19
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-8.32
 
Tanzania
15
 
13
 
0.67
 
-1.19
 
2
 
6
 
75.55
 
9.89
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.77
 
Zambia
33
 
47
 
7.06
 
4.28
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.63
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.57
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
7 494
 
9 126
 
2.25
 
1.81
 
1 086
 
1 295
 
7.55
 
0.85
 
801
 
911
 
0.18
 
0.84
 
Argentina
471
 
560
 
7.81
 
1.24
 
9
 
12
 
-18.18
 
2.34
 
11
 
6
 
13.46
 
-6.70
 
Brazil
3 546
 
4 500
 
2.07
 
2.07
 
22
 
10
 
12.96
 
-9.66
 
508
 
607
 
-1.52
 
0.92
 
Chile
523
 
560
 
0.58
 
1.01
 
53
 
72
 
40.14
 
-0.55
 
162
 
157
 
1.94
 
0.55
 
Colombia
236
 
233
 
4.38
 
-0.18
 
64
 
93
 
31.59
 
5.61
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.39
 
Mexico
1 307
 
1 685
 
1.97
 
2.22
 
683
 
791
 
8.30
 
0.88
 
97
 
119
 
7.08
 
1.65
 
Paraguay
179
 
205
 
2.83
 
1.46
 
3
 
5
 
15.61
 
3.90
 
3
 
2
 
41.60
 
-5.28
 
Peru
124
 
125
 
1.15
 
0.43
 
9
 
27
 
21.91
 
8.63
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.14
 
Uruguay
23
 
23
 
2.34
 
-0.21
 
38
 
49
 
15.99
 
1.40
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.10
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
65 275
 
71 425
 
2.32
 
1.11
 
2 743
 
2 944
 
9.12
 
-0.11
 
232
 
202
 
0.11
 
0.27
 
Bangladesh
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
China 2
54 663
 
59 309
 
2.44
 
1.08
 
1 161
 
1 060
 
28.73
 
-2.15
 
140
 
117
 
-2.82
 
1.76
 
India
356
 
450
 
-0.98
 
2.46
 
1
 
0
 
-41.09
 
7.89
 
0
 
0
 
-77.02
 
-11.62
 
Indonesia
765
 
904
 
2.42
 
1.77
 
5
 
11
 
19.94
 
6.50
 
0
 
0
 
-24.59
 
-3.91
 
Iran
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
3
 
3
 
94.40
 
0.00
 
3
 
3
 
129.32
 
0.00
 
Korea
1 216
 
1 303
 
2.22
 
0.35
 
563
 
674
 
3.52
 
1.22
 
3
 
3
 
3.81
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
230
 
255
 
1.79
 
1.24
 
23
 
33
 
18.73
 
0.71
 
5
 
4
 
5.92
 
-0.46
 
Pakistan
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Philippines
1 719
 
2 030
 
0.87
 
1.41
 
107
 
146
 
14.72
 
5.72
 
3
 
3
 
5.74
 
-0.61
 
Saudi Arabia
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
10
 
10
 
143.55
 
0.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Thailand
1 108
 
1 168
 
1.67
 
0.36
 
3
 
3
 
290.34
 
-0.68
 
30
 
29
 
11.93
 
-2.35
 
Turkey
17
 
17
 
133.47
 
0.00
 
1
 
1
 
133.24
 
0.00
 
11
 
9
 
32.06
 
0.00
 
Viet Nam
3 354
 
3 851
 
2.52
 
1.34
 
145
 
274
 
21.39
 
6.69
 
26
 
26
 
2.05
 
-1.95
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
1 565
 
1 867
 
3.71
 
1.81
 
197
 
258
 
7.73
 
3.97
 
0
 
0
 
-16.78
 
-3.33
 
OECD 3
41 120
 
43 620
 
0.56
 
0.40
 
3 574
 
3 962
 
3.16
 
0.66
 
6 143
 
6 750
 
4.09
 
0.55
 
BRICS
61 874
 
68 074
 
2.53
 
1.13
 
1 640
 
1 435
 
6.84
 
-2.09
 
678
 
744
 
-1.26
 
0.93
 
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 September New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Gross indigenous production.
5.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
6.
Excludes trade of live animals.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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