1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.18.2 - Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.18.2Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food
A.18.2Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food
  Calendar year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt cwe)
Growth (%) 4
FOOD (kg rwe/cap) 5
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
116 912
 
127 521
 
1.73
 
0.90
 
12.4
 
12.1
 
0.53
 
-0.10
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
39 989
 
42 140
 
0.18
 
0.35
 
22.3
 
22.8
 
-0.24
 
0.09
 
NORTH AMERICA
9 931
 
11 332
 
0.36
 
0.83
 
21.6
 
22.9
 
-0.46
 
0.13
 
Canada
781
 
817
 
-0.45
 
0.93
 
17.0
 
16.2
 
-1.50
 
0.13
 
United States
9 149
 
10 515
 
0.43
 
0.83
 
22.2
 
23.6
 
-0.36
 
0.13
 
EUROPE
26 367
 
26 978
 
0.11
 
0.17
 
27.8
 
28.5
 
0.00
 
0.19
 
European Union
20 903
 
20 927
 
-0.25
 
0.05
 
32.3
 
32.0
 
-0.42
 
-0.02
 
Russia
3 560
 
4 015
 
2.23
 
0.48
 
19.4
 
22.2
 
2.20
 
0.69
 
Ukraine
737
 
794
 
0.37
 
1.39
 
12.8
 
14.7
 
0.76
 
2.00
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
739
 
855
 
2.39
 
1.34
 
20.2
 
20.6
 
0.87
 
0.22
 
Australia
637
 
737
 
2.43
 
1.36
 
20.7
 
21.0
 
0.76
 
0.19
 
New Zealand
102
 
119
 
2.21
 
1.25
 
17.5
 
18.7
 
1.40
 
0.42
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
2 952
 
2 974
 
-0.33
 
-0.04
 
8.4
 
8.2
 
-0.96
 
-0.38
 
Japan
2 447
 
2 438
 
0.51
 
-0.24
 
15.1
 
15.5
 
0.60
 
0.10
 
Kazakhstan
107
 
118
 
-10.81
 
1.43
 
4.8
 
4.7
 
-12.09
 
0.54
 
South Africa
240
 
256
 
-2.41
 
0.66
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
-3.50
 
0.02
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
76 923
 
85 381
 
2.64
 
1.18
 
10.1
 
9.8
 
1.24
 
0.02
 
AFRICA
1 397
 
1 747
 
4.78
 
2.41
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
2.07
 
-0.03
 
NORTH AFRICA
26
 
31
 
14.33
 
1.40
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
12.33
 
-0.02
 
Algeria
3
 
3
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
-1.84
 
-1.34
 
Egypt
19
 
23
 
33.23
 
1.53
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
30.47
 
-0.14
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
1 370
 
1 716
 
4.66
 
2.43
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.78
 
-0.19
 
Ethiopia
2
 
3
 
0.00
 
4.83
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-2.53
 
2.50
 
Ghana
28
 
42
 
3.36
 
3.51
 
0.8
 
0.9
 
0.87
 
1.46
 
Mozambique
138
 
194
 
5.57
 
3.40
 
3.8
 
4.0
 
2.66
 
0.72
 
Nigeria
258
 
324
 
2.48
 
2.53
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
-0.22
 
0.05
 
Tanzania
17
 
19
 
1.48
 
1.22
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
-1.67
 
-1.71
 
Zambia
32
 
47
 
7.00
 
4.31
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
3.81
 
1.25
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
7 785
 
9 520
 
3.10
 
1.77
 
9.6
 
10.6
 
1.92
 
0.87
 
Argentina
469
 
566
 
5.93
 
1.39
 
8.4
 
9.2
 
4.84
 
0.51
 
Brazil
3 059
 
3 903
 
2.85
 
2.20
 
11.5
 
13.6
 
1.90
 
1.52
 
Chile
414
 
475
 
1.83
 
0.90
 
18.0
 
18.7
 
0.74
 
0.04
 
Colombia
300
 
326
 
7.16
 
1.18
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
6.07
 
0.49
 
Mexico
1 900
 
2 367
 
3.53
 
1.77
 
11.7
 
12.9
 
2.07
 
0.70
 
Paraguay
179
 
208
 
2.82
 
1.59
 
21.0
 
21.5
 
1.46
 
0.43
 
Peru
133
 
152
 
1.90
 
1.40
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
0.58
 
0.30
 
Uruguay
61
 
71
 
9.16
 
0.85
 
13.9
 
15.6
 
8.79
 
0.52
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
67 741
 
74 115
 
2.54
 
1.08
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
1.43
 
0.26
 
Bangladesh
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-1.17
 
-1.01
 
China 2
55 600
 
60 167
 
2.74
 
1.03
 
31.5
 
33.1
 
2.20
 
0.81
 
India
357
 
450
 
-0.94
 
2.46
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
-2.22
 
1.40
 
Indonesia
752
 
907
 
2.56
 
1.98
 
2.3
 
2.5
 
1.26
 
1.03
 
Iran
0
 
0
 
-10.68
 
0.00
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-11.77
 
-0.79
 
Korea
1 801
 
1 974
 
2.44
 
0.64
 
27.9
 
29.5
 
1.91
 
0.34
 
Malaysia
248
 
284
 
2.61
 
1.20
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
1.02
 
0.00
 
Pakistan
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-2.08
 
-1.76
 
Philippines
1 824
 
2 173
 
1.35
 
1.64
 
14.1
 
14.4
 
-0.22
 
0.24
 
Saudi Arabia
10
 
10
 
143.55
 
0.00
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
137.89
 
-1.44
 
Thailand
958
 
1 021
 
0.70
 
0.62
 
11.0
 
11.6
 
0.38
 
0.57
 
Turkey
7
 
9
 
422.17
 
0.00
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
414.00
 
-0.65
 
Viet Nam
3 473
 
4 098
 
2.96
 
1.62
 
29.0
 
31.1
 
1.85
 
0.79
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
1 771
 
2 142
 
4.15
 
2.06
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.71
 
-0.17
 
OECD 3
38 548
 
40 802
 
0.31
 
0.41
 
22.9
 
23.1
 
-0.28
 
0.00
 
BRICS
62 817
 
68 791
 
2.66
 
1.07
 
15.8
 
16.2
 
1.78
 
0.46
 
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
5.
Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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