OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
From Chapter:
Statistical Annex
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
| A.18.2 | Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food | ||||||||
| A.18.2 | Pigmeat projections: Consumption, food | ||||||||
| Calendar year | |||||||||
| | | CONSUMPTION (kt cwe) | Growth (%) 4 | FOOD (kg rwe/cap) 5 | Growth (%) 4 | ||||
Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | ||
| | WORLD | 116 912 | 127 521 | 1.73 | 0.90 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 0.53 | -0.10 |
| | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 39 989 | 42 140 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 22.3 | 22.8 | -0.24 | 0.09 |
| | NORTH AMERICA | 9 931 | 11 332 | 0.36 | 0.83 | 21.6 | 22.9 | -0.46 | 0.13 |
| | Canada | 781 | 817 | -0.45 | 0.93 | 17.0 | 16.2 | -1.50 | 0.13 |
| | United States | 9 149 | 10 515 | 0.43 | 0.83 | 22.2 | 23.6 | -0.36 | 0.13 |
| | EUROPE | 26 367 | 26 978 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 27.8 | 28.5 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| | European Union | 20 903 | 20 927 | -0.25 | 0.05 | 32.3 | 32.0 | -0.42 | -0.02 |
| | Russia | 3 560 | 4 015 | 2.23 | 0.48 | 19.4 | 22.2 | 2.20 | 0.69 |
| | Ukraine | 737 | 794 | 0.37 | 1.39 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 0.76 | 2.00 |
| | OCEANIA DEVELOPED | 739 | 855 | 2.39 | 1.34 | 20.2 | 20.6 | 0.87 | 0.22 |
| | Australia | 637 | 737 | 2.43 | 1.36 | 20.7 | 21.0 | 0.76 | 0.19 |
| | New Zealand | 102 | 119 | 2.21 | 1.25 | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.40 | 0.42 |
| | OTHER DEVELOPED 1 | 2 952 | 2 974 | -0.33 | -0.04 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -0.96 | -0.38 |
| | Japan | 2 447 | 2 438 | 0.51 | -0.24 | 15.1 | 15.5 | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| | Kazakhstan | 107 | 118 | -10.81 | 1.43 | 4.8 | 4.7 | -12.09 | 0.54 |
| | South Africa | 240 | 256 | -2.41 | 0.66 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -3.50 | 0.02 |
| | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 76 923 | 85 381 | 2.64 | 1.18 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 1.24 | 0.02 |
| | AFRICA | 1 397 | 1 747 | 4.78 | 2.41 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.07 | -0.03 |
| | NORTH AFRICA | 26 | 31 | 14.33 | 1.40 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 12.33 | -0.02 |
| | Algeria | 3 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -1.84 | -1.34 |
| | Egypt | 19 | 23 | 33.23 | 1.53 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 30.47 | -0.14 |
| | SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | 1 370 | 1 716 | 4.66 | 2.43 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.78 | -0.19 |
| | Ethiopia | 2 | 3 | 0.00 | 4.83 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.53 | 2.50 |
| | Ghana | 28 | 42 | 3.36 | 3.51 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.87 | 1.46 |
| | Mozambique | 138 | 194 | 5.57 | 3.40 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.66 | 0.72 |
| | Nigeria | 258 | 324 | 2.48 | 2.53 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| | Tanzania | 17 | 19 | 1.48 | 1.22 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -1.67 | -1.71 |
| | Zambia | 32 | 47 | 7.00 | 4.31 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.81 | 1.25 |
| | LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN | 7 785 | 9 520 | 3.10 | 1.77 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 1.92 | 0.87 |
| | Argentina | 469 | 566 | 5.93 | 1.39 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 4.84 | 0.51 |
| | Brazil | 3 059 | 3 903 | 2.85 | 2.20 | 11.5 | 13.6 | 1.90 | 1.52 |
| | Chile | 414 | 475 | 1.83 | 0.90 | 18.0 | 18.7 | 0.74 | 0.04 |
| | Colombia | 300 | 326 | 7.16 | 1.18 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 6.07 | 0.49 |
| | Mexico | 1 900 | 2 367 | 3.53 | 1.77 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 2.07 | 0.70 |
| | Paraguay | 179 | 208 | 2.82 | 1.59 | 21.0 | 21.5 | 1.46 | 0.43 |
| | Peru | 133 | 152 | 1.90 | 1.40 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.58 | 0.30 |
| | Uruguay | 61 | 71 | 9.16 | 0.85 | 13.9 | 15.6 | 8.79 | 0.52 |
| | ASIA and PACIFIC | 67 741 | 74 115 | 2.54 | 1.08 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 1.43 | 0.26 |
| | Bangladesh | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.17 | -1.01 |
| | China 2 | 55 600 | 60 167 | 2.74 | 1.03 | 31.5 | 33.1 | 2.20 | 0.81 |
| | India | 357 | 450 | -0.94 | 2.46 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -2.22 | 1.40 |
| | Indonesia | 752 | 907 | 2.56 | 1.98 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| | Iran | 0 | 0 | -10.68 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -11.77 | -0.79 |
| | Korea | 1 801 | 1 974 | 2.44 | 0.64 | 27.9 | 29.5 | 1.91 | 0.34 |
| | Malaysia | 248 | 284 | 2.61 | 1.20 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 1.02 | 0.00 |
| | Pakistan | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.08 | -1.76 |
| | Philippines | 1 824 | 2 173 | 1.35 | 1.64 | 14.1 | 14.4 | -0.22 | 0.24 |
| | Saudi Arabia | 10 | 10 | 143.55 | 0.00 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 137.89 | -1.44 |
| | Thailand | 958 | 1 021 | 0.70 | 0.62 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| | Turkey | 7 | 9 | 422.17 | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 414.00 | -0.65 |
| | Viet Nam | 3 473 | 4 098 | 2.96 | 1.62 | 29.0 | 31.1 | 1.85 | 0.79 |
| | LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 1 771 | 2 142 | 4.15 | 2.06 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.71 | -0.17 |
| | OECD 3 | 38 548 | 40 802 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 22.9 | 23.1 | -0.28 | 0.00 |
| | BRICS | 62 817 | 68 791 | 2.66 | 1.07 | 15.8 | 16.2 | 1.78 | 0.46 |
| Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 September for New Zealand. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||
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Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. | |||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate. | |||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||
Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat. | |||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||