1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.6.1 - Other coarse grain projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.6.1Other coarse grain projections: Production and trade
A.6.1Other coarse grain projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 4
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 4
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
301 396
 
331 819
 
0.31
 
1.05
 
43 116
 
46 119
 
6.30
 
2.13
 
49 170
 
51 173
 
5.12
 
1.90
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
188 931
 
195 456
 
-0.02
 
0.58
 
6 401
 
6 463
 
-5.00
 
0.55
 
42 568
 
43 370
 
4.92
 
2.00
 
NORTH AMERICA
29 738
 
28 646
 
-1.01
 
1.01
 
1 941
 
1 996
 
-1.98
 
-0.23
 
12 528
 
11 662
 
1.39
 
1.96
 
Canada
11 669
 
12 544
 
-2.76
 
0.70
 
134
 
109
 
7.27
 
-3.59
 
4 345
 
4 530
 
-2.70
 
1.15
 
United States
18 068
 
16 102
 
0.30
 
1.25
 
1 807
 
1 887
 
-2.43
 
0.02
 
8 183
 
7 132
 
4.52
 
2.52
 
EUROPE
139 084
 
144 948
 
-0.18
 
0.43
 
1 207
 
1 662
 
-9.50
 
4.56
 
21 345
 
22 615
 
7.14
 
2.33
 
European Union
94 151
 
95 334
 
0.04
 
0.25
 
548
 
883
 
-13.62
 
6.34
 
12 040
 
11 186
 
9.35
 
2.48
 
Russia
26 704
 
28 656
 
-0.46
 
0.63
 
100
 
250
 
-2.30
 
10.11
 
4 377
 
4 536
 
9.42
 
2.68
 
Ukraine
10 845
 
12 644
 
-0.65
 
1.04
 
10
 
20
 
-14.48
 
0.06
 
4 845
 
6 362
 
5.69
 
1.68
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
14 150
 
15 023
 
2.48
 
1.42
 
26
 
19
 
101.07
 
-0.34
 
8 038
 
8 339
 
7.97
 
1.39
 
Australia
13 698
 
14 485
 
2.53
 
1.40
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
8 037
 
8 339
 
8.00
 
1.39
 
New Zealand
452
 
538
 
0.92
 
1.89
 
26
 
19
 
101.07
 
-0.34
 
0
 
0
 
-23.86
 
0.00
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
5 958
 
6 839
 
3.87
 
0.38
 
3 228
 
2 787
 
-1.95
 
-0.82
 
657
 
754
 
1.19
 
0.02
 
Japan
209
 
214
 
-0.79
 
0.15
 
2 185
 
1 874
 
-3.98
 
-1.19
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
3 022
 
3 511
 
2.43
 
0.50
 
20
 
10
 
-14.60
 
0.03
 
634
 
742
 
1.78
 
0.00
 
South Africa
546
 
572
 
0.96
 
1.46
 
152
 
157
 
3.27
 
-1.71
 
22
 
12
 
-10.21
 
1.34
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
112 465
 
136 363
 
0.98
 
1.76
 
36 715
 
39 657
 
10.50
 
2.42
 
6 602
 
7 803
 
6.28
 
1.37
 
AFRICA
50 657
 
63 005
 
2.21
 
1.99
 
4 304
 
6 223
 
9.41
 
3.09
 
2 802
 
2 022
 
12.60
 
-4.52
 
NORTH AFRICA
4 657
 
5 203
 
-0.08
 
1.97
 
3 337
 
4 549
 
14.61
 
1.58
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.09
 
Algeria
1 253
 
1 664
 
2.51
 
2.69
 
895
 
1 223
 
33.10
 
2.56
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.18
 
Egypt
812
 
962
 
-2.47
 
1.67
 
88
 
61
 
18.56
 
-0.36
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.03
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
46 000
 
57 803
 
2.47
 
1.99
 
967
 
1 674
 
-0.53
 
8.93
 
2 802
 
2 022
 
12.60
 
-4.52
 
Ethiopia
11 818
 
15 774
 
6.92
 
2.93
 
36
 
0
 
-54.50
 
-0.10
 
1 617
 
1 256
 
41.68
 
-0.64
 
Ghana
420
 
522
 
-2.35
 
1.71
 
0
 
0
 
-66.84
 
0.38
 
20
 
18
 
181.38
 
-4.75
 
Mozambique
262
 
236
 
-7.22
 
0.65
 
0
 
115
 
-43.58
 
82.45
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-45.67
 
Nigeria
7 683
 
9 536
 
-1.31
 
1.83
 
20
 
22
 
0.00
 
0.74
 
100
 
76
 
-2.37
 
-1.98
 
Tanzania
1 195
 
1 511
 
2.41
 
2.25
 
5
 
65
 
-2.50
 
34.38
 
0
 
0
 
6.33
 
-33.66
 
Zambia
46
 
58
 
-1.97
 
2.48
 
0
 
1
 
-54.83
 
63.67
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-44.49
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
20 548
 
25 181
 
2.85
 
2.04
 
3 057
 
3 232
 
-1.77
 
0.44
 
3 288
 
5 270
 
5.84
 
5.04
 
Argentina
7 714
 
9 808
 
8.00
 
2.82
 
1
 
1
 
-3.71
 
0.00
 
3 107
 
4 840
 
6.74
 
5.12
 
Brazil
2 742
 
3 445
 
3.08
 
2.31
 
493
 
487
 
4.12
 
2.40
 
26
 
27
 
1.01
 
0.47
 
Chile
680
 
846
 
6.43
 
1.62
 
725
 
613
 
10.82
 
-1.19
 
50
 
59
 
5.75
 
1.19
 
Colombia
20
 
37
 
-22.57
 
1.63
 
1 065
 
1 191
 
17.01
 
1.20
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.09
 
Mexico
7 367
 
8 503
 
-0.25
 
1.35
 
535
 
696
 
-17.15
 
-1.25
 
1
 
0
 
-1.35
 
0.37
 
Paraguay
31
 
37
 
-0.20
 
1.58
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.22
 
2
 
3
 
0.00
 
2.97
 
Peru
264
 
315
 
1.54
 
1.62
 
120
 
114
 
-0.02
 
-0.61
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.04
 
Uruguay
583
 
871
 
0.65
 
1.66
 
5
 
5
 
42.36
 
2.74
 
90
 
328
 
-0.14
 
6.35
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
41 260
 
48 176
 
-1.08
 
1.33
 
29 354
 
30 201
 
13.22
 
2.52
 
511
 
511
 
-5.92
 
0.87
 
Bangladesh
77
 
93
 
21.31
 
1.96
 
0
 
0
 
-8.80
 
5.31
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-5.04
 
China 2
8 564
 
9 550
 
-2.80
 
1.04
 
14 803
 
13 464
 
37.33
 
4.16
 
79
 
92
 
-14.55
 
1.05
 
India
17 608
 
21 167
 
-2.03
 
1.47
 
9
 
5
 
73.75
 
-0.14
 
417
 
398
 
1.99
 
0.87
 
Indonesia
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.65
 
95
 
91
 
9.31
 
0.77
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.77
 
Iran
2 943
 
3 252
 
2.93
 
1.49
 
1 549
 
1 946
 
9.88
 
2.08
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.15
 
Korea
95
 
112
 
-8.01
 
1.41
 
117
 
108
 
4.29
 
-0.46
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.01
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.46
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.44
 
Pakistan
614
 
702
 
1.61
 
1.42
 
154
 
309
 
82.76
 
3.76
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.26
 
Philippines
0
 
0
 
-56.95
 
1.66
 
37
 
40
 
1.48
 
0.76
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.76
 
Saudi Arabia
292
 
302
 
0.83
 
0.04
 
9 692
 
11 234
 
5.02
 
1.32
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.09
 
Thailand
166
 
196
 
-0.33
 
1.47
 
24
 
6
 
0.00
 
-13.18
 
2
 
3
 
0.00
 
2.76
 
Turkey
7 687
 
9 342
 
0.64
 
1.50
 
541
 
288
 
13.51
 
0.42
 
7
 
12
 
-8.45
 
0.01
 
Viet Nam
2
 
2
 
3.30
 
1.69
 
75
 
78
 
9.63
 
1.00
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.99
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
37 485
 
47 338
 
3.36
 
2.00
 
737
 
1 214
 
-2.28
 
9.47
 
2 682
 
1 928
 
13.74
 
-4.62
 
OECD 3
155 045
 
158 968
 
0.06
 
0.62
 
7 743
 
7 686
 
-5.44
 
0.09
 
32 664
 
31 258
 
5.25
 
1.98
 
BRICS
56 164
 
63 391
 
-1.27
 
1.06
 
15 557
 
14 363
 
31.08
 
4.08
 
4 920
 
5 064
 
5.86
 
2.48
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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