OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
From Chapter:
Statistical Annex
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
| A.6.2 | Other coarse grain projections: Consumption, feed, food | ||||||||||||
| A.6.2 | Other coarse grain projections: Consumption, feed, food | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | CONSUMPTION (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | FEED (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | FOOD (kg/cap) | Growth (%) 4 | ||||||
Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | ||
| | WORLD | 292 542 | 326 454 | 0.34 | 1.02 | 165 054 | 181 974 | 0.32 | 1.07 | 10.3 | 11.1 | -0.22 | 0.77 |
| | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 150 106 | 158 645 | -1.36 | 0.17 | 104 087 | 112 186 | -1.73 | 0.54 | 7.9 | 7.6 | -0.60 | -0.11 |
| | NORTH AMERICA | 18 960 | 18 983 | -2.21 | 0.02 | 10 326 | 10 385 | -5.31 | 0.13 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 0.04 | -0.48 |
| | Canada | 7 574 | 8 112 | -2.48 | 0.24 | 6 612 | 7 172 | -2.90 | 0.24 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 2.62 | 0.06 |
| | United States | 11 385 | 10 871 | -2.05 | -0.15 | 3 714 | 3 212 | -8.60 | -0.12 | 2.9 | 2.7 | -0.79 | -0.69 |
| | EUROPE | 117 147 | 124 000 | -1.32 | 0.14 | 84 570 | 91 198 | -1.29 | 0.57 | 11.4 | 10.9 | -0.69 | 0.09 |
| | European Union | 82 080 | 85 033 | -1.00 | -0.03 | 60 033 | 62 844 | -1.36 | 0.53 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| | Russia | 21 999 | 24 377 | -1.72 | 0.42 | 15 214 | 17 551 | -0.66 | 0.53 | 14.4 | 11.7 | -1.84 | -0.45 |
| | Ukraine | 6 065 | 6 294 | -3.26 | 0.56 | 3 983 | 4 216 | -2.57 | 0.89 | 19.5 | 20.1 | -1.82 | 0.45 |
| | OCEANIA DEVELOPED | 5 621 | 6 703 | -2.81 | 0.80 | 3 745 | 4 820 | -2.54 | 1.05 | 9.3 | 8.6 | -7.05 | -0.71 |
| | Australia | 5 140 | 6 146 | -3.19 | 0.71 | 3 318 | 4 329 | -3.25 | 0.96 | 8.8 | 7.8 | -5.60 | -1.00 |
| | New Zealand | 480 | 557 | 2.19 | 1.80 | 427 | 491 | 4.95 | 1.87 | 11.9 | 13.3 | -18.83 | 0.40 |
| | OTHER DEVELOPED 1 | 8 379 | 8 959 | 1.27 | 0.59 | 5 446 | 5 784 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.87 | 0.28 |
| | Japan | 2 664 | 2 094 | -3.16 | -0.87 | 1 897 | 1 495 | -4.64 | -1.47 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| | Kazakhstan | 2 423 | 2 777 | 2.51 | 0.69 | 1 580 | 1 823 | 3.28 | 0.51 | 2.6 | 2.6 | -1.46 | -0.05 |
| | South Africa | 668 | 716 | 2.03 | 0.55 | 39 | 54 | -1.64 | 0.97 | 3.9 | 4.0 | -2.33 | -0.05 |
| | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 142 436 | 167 810 | 2.46 | 1.89 | 60 967 | 69 787 | 5.03 | 2.00 | 10.8 | 11.9 | -0.19 | 0.85 |
| | AFRICA | 51 634 | 66 983 | 2.09 | 2.29 | 7 197 | 8 990 | 4.70 | 2.13 | 33.6 | 34.3 | -0.34 | 0.16 |
| | NORTH AFRICA | 8 177 | 9 733 | 4.17 | 1.70 | 5 228 | 6 592 | 6.20 | 2.19 | 13.8 | 12.6 | -0.65 | -0.70 |
| | Algeria | 2 298 | 2 879 | 6.03 | 2.57 | 1 665 | 2 149 | 9.40 | 3.01 | 15.1 | 15.0 | -0.84 | 0.10 |
| | Egypt | 900 | 1 022 | -1.62 | 1.47 | 545 | 592 | -3.12 | 1.13 | 3.2 | 3.3 | -0.62 | 0.47 |
| | SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | 43 457 | 57 250 | 1.75 | 2.40 | 1 970 | 2 398 | 1.52 | 1.96 | 37.4 | 37.9 | -0.43 | 0.10 |
| | Ethiopia | 10 103 | 14 462 | 4.93 | 3.19 | 573 | 694 | 15.38 | 1.50 | 83.0 | 95.5 | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| | Ghana | 400 | 504 | -3.39 | 2.05 | 27 | 35 | -2.20 | 2.23 | 10.3 | 10.7 | -6.53 | 0.42 |
| | Mozambique | 293 | 351 | -3.68 | 4.47 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.26 | 10.1 | 9.1 | -6.19 | 1.94 |
| | Nigeria | 7 603 | 9 480 | -1.66 | 1.86 | 411 | 482 | -0.30 | 2.06 | 36.4 | 34.6 | -1.57 | -0.47 |
| | Tanzania | 1 234 | 1 571 | 2.86 | 2.55 | 69 | 76 | 4.59 | 0.63 | 19.6 | 18.8 | -0.29 | -0.10 |
| | Zambia | 46 | 59 | -5.03 | 2.57 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.47 | 2.4 | 2.4 | -8.86 | -0.13 |
| | LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN | 20 084 | 23 072 | 1.53 | 1.31 | 14 779 | 17 114 | 0.80 | 1.41 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| | Argentina | 4 507 | 4 962 | 8.63 | 0.94 | 2 909 | 3 257 | 7.87 | 1.14 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 1.17 | 0.40 |
| | Brazil | 3 304 | 3 897 | 3.70 | 2.61 | 1 877 | 2 275 | 3.53 | 3.55 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.87 | 0.26 |
| | Chile | 1 355 | 1 400 | 8.33 | 0.28 | 1 175 | 1 197 | 10.65 | 0.11 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.49 | -0.02 |
| | Colombia | 1 085 | 1 228 | 12.21 | 1.22 | 721 | 833 | 19.86 | 1.49 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.02 | -0.12 |
| | Mexico | 7 935 | 9 192 | -2.50 | 1.13 | 7 182 | 8 342 | -2.88 | 1.10 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| | Paraguay | 29 | 34 | -0.21 | 1.45 | 27 | 31 | -0.22 | 1.51 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.33 | -0.02 |
| | Peru | 386 | 429 | 1.20 | 0.97 | 25 | 30 | 0.89 | 1.97 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| | Uruguay | 409 | 542 | -1.53 | 0.40 | 184 | 214 | 1.19 | -0.03 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.68 | -0.01 |
| | ASIA and PACIFIC | 70 718 | 77 755 | 3.02 | 1.74 | 38 990 | 43 683 | 7.21 | 2.20 | 5.7 | 5.9 | -1.50 | 0.26 |
| | Bangladesh | 77 | 93 | 21.31 | 1.96 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.53 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 19.89 | 0.92 |
| | China 2 | 23 224 | 22 872 | 9.44 | 2.76 | 13 103 | 13 965 | 32.29 | 4.44 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.13 | -0.70 |
| | India | 17 683 | 20 768 | -1.43 | 1.47 | 582 | 646 | 6.69 | 3.08 | 12.4 | 13.0 | -2.31 | 0.34 |
| | Indonesia | 95 | 91 | 9.31 | 0.77 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.22 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 7.91 | -0.17 |
| | Iran | 4 375 | 5 184 | 3.80 | 1.56 | 4 198 | 4 992 | 4.09 | 1.59 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -1.23 | -0.80 |
| | Korea | 213 | 220 | -2.62 | 0.45 | 65 | 58 | -2.46 | -0.01 | 2.9 | 3.1 | -3.18 | 0.31 |
| | Malaysia | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.23 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.55 | -0.06 |
| | Pakistan | 768 | 1 010 | 4.73 | 2.08 | 195 | 199 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 5.26 | 0.98 |
| | Philippines | 37 | 40 | 1.38 | 0.76 | 30 | 32 | 1.85 | 0.61 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.71 | 0.04 |
| | Saudi Arabia | 10 018 | 11 504 | 4.29 | 1.00 | 9 822 | 11 304 | 4.40 | 1.01 | 2.9 | 2.4 | -2.32 | -1.44 |
| | Thailand | 188 | 199 | -0.29 | 0.49 | 53 | 61 | -0.46 | 1.24 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.62 | -0.10 |
| | Turkey | 8 390 | 9 603 | 0.53 | 1.45 | 7 301 | 8 455 | 0.68 | 1.58 | 3.7 | 3.7 | -1.08 | -0.06 |
| | Viet Nam | 77 | 81 | 9.37 | 1.02 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.55 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 7.44 | 0.57 |
| | LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 34 791 | 46 441 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 1 718 | 2 149 | 0.68 | 1.96 | 29.1 | 31.4 | 0.27 | 0.63 |
| | OECD 3 | 129 309 | 135 386 | -1.22 | 0.19 | 93 560 | 99 486 | -1.83 | 0.60 | 6.3 | 6.2 | -0.39 | 0.08 |
| | BRICS | 66 879 | 72 629 | 1.46 | 1.53 | 30 814 | 34 492 | 6.04 | 2.19 | 7.7 | 7.9 | -1.56 | 0.29 |
| Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
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Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. | |||||||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||