1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.27 - Milk projections: Production, inventories, yield

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.27Milk projections: Production, inventories, yield
A.27Milk projections: Production, inventories, yield
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 4
INVENTORIES ('000 hd)
Growth (%) 4
YIELD (t/head)
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
799 003
 
977 431
 
1.94
 
1.87
 
692 341
 
771 786
 
1.89
 
0.93
 
1.15
 
1.27
 
0.04
 
0.93
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
389 341
 
429 852
 
1.08
 
0.94
 
77 538
 
76 075
 
0.11
 
-0.17
 
5.02
 
5.65
 
0.97
 
1.11
 
NORTH AMERICA
104 009
 
119 034
 
1.49
 
1.04
 
10 260
 
10 331
 
0.12
 
0.00
 
10.14
 
11.52
 
1.37
 
1.04
 
Canada
9 173
 
10 658
 
1.48
 
0.81
 
960
 
945
 
-0.18
 
-0.12
 
9.56
 
11.28
 
1.66
 
0.92
 
United States
94 836
 
108 377
 
1.49
 
1.06
 
9 301
 
9 386
 
0.15
 
0.01
 
10.20
 
11.55
 
1.34
 
1.05
 
EUROPE
220 933
 
237 089
 
0.61
 
0.71
 
42 798
 
39 945
 
-0.87
 
-0.52
 
5.16
 
5.94
 
1.49
 
1.23
 
European Union
162 179
 
175 925
 
1.18
 
0.77
 
23 259
 
21 859
 
-0.53
 
-0.44
 
6.86
 
7.94
 
1.85
 
1.24
 
Russia
30 456
 
30 515
 
-0.81
 
0.16
 
8 338
 
7 444
 
-1.30
 
-0.89
 
3.65
 
4.10
 
0.49
 
1.06
 
Ukraine
10 936
 
11 896
 
-1.18
 
1.53
 
3 427
 
3 314
 
-2.15
 
-0.12
 
3.19
 
3.59
 
0.99
 
1.65
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
31 228
 
35 809
 
2.70
 
1.92
 
6 732
 
7 448
 
1.62
 
1.19
 
4.64
 
4.81
 
1.07
 
0.72
 
Australia
9 716
 
10 413
 
0.16
 
1.12
 
1 651
 
1 759
 
0.07
 
0.94
 
5.88
 
5.92
 
0.10
 
0.18
 
New Zealand
21 512
 
25 396
 
4.04
 
2.26
 
5 081
 
5 688
 
2.17
 
1.27
 
4.23
 
4.46
 
1.83
 
0.98
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
33 171
 
37 919
 
1.63
 
1.21
 
17 748
 
18 351
 
2.18
 
-0.01
 
1.87
 
2.07
 
-0.53
 
1.22
 
Japan
7 369
 
7 389
 
-1.03
 
0.00
 
871
 
868
 
-1.65
 
-0.04
 
8.46
 
8.51
 
0.63
 
0.04
 
Kazakhstan
5 090
 
6 236
 
-0.36
 
1.90
 
2 618
 
2 711
 
-0.74
 
0.28
 
1.94
 
2.30
 
0.38
 
1.62
 
South Africa
3 373
 
3 791
 
1.12
 
1.49
 
1 008
 
1 014
 
1.50
 
-0.02
 
3.35
 
3.74
 
-0.37
 
1.51
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
409 662
 
547 580
 
2.80
 
2.67
 
614 802
 
695 711
 
2.14
 
1.06
 
0.67
 
0.79
 
0.65
 
1.59
 
AFRICA
42 762
 
55 747
 
1.80
 
2.69
 
226 971
 
259 588
 
2.01
 
1.25
 
0.19
 
0.21
 
-0.21
 
1.43
 
NORTH AFRICA
13 086
 
15 691
 
2.49
 
1.75
 
35 470
 
38 084
 
3.37
 
0.51
 
0.37
 
0.41
 
-0.85
 
1.23
 
Algeria
3 340
 
4 158
 
6.81
 
1.95
 
19 997
 
21 569
 
5.61
 
0.41
 
0.17
 
0.19
 
1.14
 
1.53
 
Egypt
5 953
 
6 744
 
0.27
 
1.31
 
6 692
 
6 765
 
0.81
 
0.10
 
0.89
 
1.00
 
-0.54
 
1.20
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
29 676
 
40 056
 
1.51
 
3.08
 
191 501
 
221 504
 
1.78
 
1.38
 
0.15
 
0.18
 
-0.27
 
1.68
 
Ethiopia
4 250
 
5 893
 
3.83
 
3.44
 
15 419
 
19 299
 
5.37
 
2.00
 
0.28
 
0.31
 
-1.47
 
1.42
 
Ghana
43
 
59
 
1.90
 
3.16
 
327
 
379
 
1.88
 
1.50
 
0.13
 
0.15
 
0.02
 
1.64
 
Mozambique
80
 
108
 
0.91
 
3.01
 
630
 
740
 
1.20
 
1.49
 
0.13
 
0.15
 
-0.29
 
1.50
 
Nigeria
578
 
710
 
3.44
 
1.94
 
2 510
 
2 726
 
4.18
 
0.55
 
0.23
 
0.26
 
-0.71
 
1.39
 
Tanzania
2 123
 
2 873
 
4.05
 
2.84
 
9 905
 
11 517
 
1.13
 
1.36
 
0.21
 
0.25
 
2.88
 
1.47
 
Zambia
88
 
99
 
0.30
 
1.84
 
299
 
310
 
0.68
 
0.43
 
0.29
 
0.32
 
-0.38
 
1.41
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
80 263
 
94 391
 
0.92
 
1.69
 
51 159
 
53 312
 
1.87
 
0.28
 
1.57
 
1.77
 
-0.93
 
1.40
 
Argentina
10 796
 
11 298
 
1.16
 
1.33
 
2 343
 
2 394
 
0.03
 
0.62
 
4.60
 
4.72
 
1.13
 
0.71
 
Brazil
28 871
 
34 457
 
0.16
 
2.16
 
24 623
 
24 860
 
1.71
 
0.09
 
1.17
 
1.39
 
-1.53
 
2.07
 
Chile
2 565
 
2 918
 
0.49
 
1.66
 
1 399
 
1 473
 
0.31
 
0.47
 
1.83
 
1.98
 
0.18
 
1.18
 
Colombia
6 500
 
7 371
 
-0.60
 
1.28
 
5 667
 
5 881
 
3.42
 
-0.13
 
1.15
 
1.25
 
-3.89
 
1.41
 
Mexico
11 773
 
13 013
 
1.22
 
0.75
 
2 454
 
2 609
 
0.74
 
0.55
 
4.80
 
4.99
 
0.49
 
0.20
 
Paraguay
524
 
633
 
2.45
 
1.75
 
239
 
255
 
3.45
 
0.17
 
2.19
 
2.49
 
-0.96
 
1.58
 
Peru
1 883
 
2 284
 
2.64
 
1.68
 
1 128
 
1 164
 
1.03
 
0.16
 
1.67
 
1.96
 
1.59
 
1.52
 
Uruguay
2 005
 
2 272
 
1.64
 
0.60
 
768
 
702
 
0.53
 
-0.83
 
2.61
 
3.24
 
1.11
 
1.44
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
286 637
 
397 441
 
3.54
 
2.91
 
336 672
 
382 812
 
2.26
 
1.04
 
0.85
 
1.04
 
1.25
 
1.85
 
Bangladesh
3 570
 
4 875
 
2.21
 
3.02
 
39 479
 
46 606
 
3.15
 
1.37
 
0.09
 
0.10
 
-0.91
 
1.62
 
China 2
41 677
 
48 697
 
0.53
 
1.78
 
14 457
 
14 257
 
2.66
 
0.47
 
2.62
 
3.08
 
-2.38
 
1.30
 
India
153 237
 
227 781
 
4.51
 
3.39
 
120 335
 
145 165
 
1.67
 
1.53
 
1.27
 
1.57
 
2.80
 
1.84
 
Indonesia
1 447
 
1 841
 
4.56
 
2.11
 
12 233
 
13 079
 
1.79
 
0.49
 
0.12
 
0.14
 
2.72
 
1.62
 
Iran
7 790
 
9 185
 
0.90
 
1.47
 
22 966
 
23 416
 
0.72
 
0.00
 
0.34
 
0.39
 
0.19
 
1.47
 
Korea
2 169
 
2 237
 
0.13
 
0.51
 
256
 
255
 
0.24
 
0.11
 
8.47
 
8.77
 
-0.11
 
0.39
 
Malaysia
86
 
100
 
4.28
 
1.44
 
171
 
176
 
3.10
 
0.00
 
0.50
 
0.57
 
1.14
 
1.44
 
Pakistan
41 000
 
59 254
 
3.03
 
3.42
 
32 165
 
39 625
 
3.15
 
1.79
 
1.27
 
1.50
 
-0.12
 
1.60
 
Philippines
23
 
25
 
7.12
 
0.74
 
6
 
5
 
-1.02
 
-0.28
 
4.12
 
4.62
 
8.23
 
1.02
 
Saudi Arabia
2 407
 
4 166
 
6.15
 
4.25
 
4 616
 
6 626
 
0.93
 
2.98
 
0.52
 
0.63
 
5.17
 
1.23
 
Thailand
1 255
 
1 552
 
6.92
 
1.46
 
387
 
398
 
5.77
 
-0.09
 
3.24
 
3.90
 
1.09
 
1.56
 
Turkey
20 415
 
23 469
 
7.34
 
1.04
 
25 352
 
25 321
 
6.77
 
-0.33
 
0.81
 
0.93
 
0.54
 
1.38
 
Viet Nam
527
 
750
 
8.98
 
3.08
 
192
 
226
 
2.99
 
1.39
 
2.74
 
3.32
 
5.82
 
1.67
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
32 567
 
43 539
 
1.61
 
2.97
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
OECD 3
348 869
 
387 112
 
1.61
 
0.95
 
71 906
 
71 416
 
1.99
 
-0.12
 
4.85
 
5.42
 
-0.37
 
1.07
 
BRICS
257 615
 
345 241
 
2.51
 
2.68
 
168 761
 
192 740
 
1.59
 
1.14
 
1.53
 
1.79
 
0.91
 
1.52
 
..
Not available
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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