1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.16.1 - Meat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.16.1Meat projections: Production and trade
A.16.1Meat projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
PRODUCTION (kt cwe) 4
Growth (%) 5
IMPORTS (kt cwe) 6
Growth (%) 5
EXPORTS (kt cwe) 6
Growth (%) 5
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
313 571
 
352 991
 
1.85
 
1.09
 
28 461
 
33 528
 
3.25
 
1.33
 
29 536
 
33 621
 
3.39
 
1.39
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
123 156
 
133 059
 
1.11
 
0.56
 
9 994
 
10 373
 
-1.20
 
0.39
 
16 859
 
18 748
 
3.56
 
1.11
 
NORTH AMERICA
46 722
 
52 856
 
0.36
 
0.85
 
2 764
 
2 873
 
1.67
 
1.14
 
8 592
 
10 035
 
1.97
 
1.51
 
Canada
4 661
 
5 112
 
-0.91
 
0.76
 
696
 
837
 
0.97
 
1.27
 
1 836
 
2 069
 
0.62
 
0.76
 
United States
42 061
 
47 744
 
0.51
 
0.86
 
2 067
 
2 036
 
1.91
 
1.09
 
6 756
 
7 966
 
2.37
 
1.72
 
EUROPE
60 175
 
62 722
 
1.55
 
0.22
 
3 268
 
3 138
 
-6.03
 
-0.39
 
4 673
 
5 134
 
7.87
 
0.46
 
European Union
45 833
 
46 914
 
0.72
 
0.03
 
1 373
 
1 549
 
-1.65
 
0.34
 
3 903
 
4 271
 
6.75
 
0.32
 
Russia
9 259
 
10 381
 
5.94
 
0.83
 
1 345
 
990
 
-10.03
 
-2.09
 
175
 
224
 
22.58
 
0.77
 
Ukraine
2 380
 
2 569
 
3.30
 
1.14
 
102
 
177
 
-14.66
 
3.97
 
222
 
254
 
29.57
 
3.40
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
6 545
 
7 095
 
1.76
 
1.21
 
398
 
441
 
4.02
 
1.11
 
3 400
 
3 424
 
2.28
 
1.06
 
Australia
5 146
 
5 680
 
2.28
 
1.42
 
323
 
371
 
3.69
 
1.50
 
2 320
 
2 394
 
3.03
 
1.54
 
New Zealand
1 399
 
1 414
 
0.04
 
0.41
 
74
 
69
 
5.56
 
-0.74
 
1 080
 
1 030
 
0.78
 
0.03
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
9 713
 
10 386
 
1.66
 
0.74
 
3 565
 
3 921
 
2.19
 
0.42
 
193
 
154
 
17.92
 
-1.34
 
Japan
3 261
 
3 294
 
0.49
 
0.16
 
2 434
 
2 427
 
1.47
 
-0.49
 
13
 
17
 
5.05
 
2.58
 
Kazakhstan
834
 
938
 
0.48
 
1.13
 
157
 
203
 
-3.69
 
4.37
 
1
 
0
 
-21.50
 
-0.94
 
South Africa
2 921
 
3 075
 
2.31
 
0.72
 
559
 
748
 
8.54
 
1.28
 
167
 
126
 
33.99
 
-1.77
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
190 416
 
219 933
 
2.36
 
1.43
 
18 467
 
23 155
 
6.54
 
1.78
 
12 677
 
14 873
 
3.21
 
1.77
 
AFRICA
12 995
 
15 836
 
2.19
 
2.14
 
2 268
 
3 220
 
6.55
 
3.58
 
91
 
93
 
-3.04
 
1.01
 
NORTH AFRICA
4 258
 
4 968
 
2.85
 
1.62
 
594
 
988
 
6.42
 
3.61
 
22
 
16
 
21.27
 
-3.36
 
Algeria
721
 
850
 
3.87
 
1.65
 
94
 
143
 
2.22
 
4.24
 
2
 
1
 
177.97
 
-6.26
 
Egypt
1 952
 
2 234
 
1.90
 
1.54
 
366
 
547
 
5.25
 
1.90
 
17
 
14
 
25.81
 
-1.93
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
8 736
 
10 868
 
1.88
 
2.39
 
1 673
 
2 231
 
6.62
 
3.57
 
69
 
77
 
-5.63
 
2.22
 
Ethiopia
608
 
822
 
0.62
 
3.76
 
0
 
0
 
1.09
 
50.45
 
17
 
36
 
14.18
 
8.51
 
Ghana
141
 
166
 
4.34
 
1.52
 
149
 
254
 
4.57
 
4.72
 
0
 
0
 
-62.50
 
-0.38
 
Mozambique
212
 
266
 
3.77
 
2.10
 
40
 
115
 
17.02
 
11.45
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-3.21
 
Nigeria
1 289
 
1 629
 
1.66
 
2.38
 
4
 
6
 
153.98
 
3.22
 
1
 
1
 
206.78
 
-1.00
 
Tanzania
480
 
675
 
2.08
 
3.24
 
4
 
29
 
14.90
 
19.50
 
0
 
0
 
-16.87
 
-11.90
 
Zambia
299
 
418
 
10.30
 
3.37
 
3
 
23
 
212.52
 
23.77
 
0
 
0
 
-35.51
 
-9.26
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
51 304
 
59 163
 
1.80
 
1.26
 
3 602
 
4 077
 
3.76
 
0.77
 
8 323
 
10 280
 
0.88
 
1.94
 
Argentina
5 250
 
6 247
 
0.74
 
1.38
 
27
 
29
 
-10.57
 
0.90
 
489
 
1 002
 
-4.79
 
8.30
 
Brazil
26 585
 
30 563
 
1.70
 
1.13
 
74
 
66
 
14.35
 
-2.84
 
6 290
 
7 764
 
0.82
 
1.87
 
Chile
1 465
 
1 586
 
1.20
 
0.96
 
407
 
542
 
11.89
 
0.81
 
312
 
323
 
3.35
 
0.37
 
Colombia
2 508
 
2 787
 
3.06
 
1.04
 
131
 
193
 
12.80
 
4.11
 
17
 
3
 
-18.67
 
-15.16
 
Mexico
6 186
 
7 523
 
1.77
 
1.83
 
1 670
 
1 873
 
5.05
 
0.44
 
262
 
324
 
15.53
 
0.53
 
Paraguay
815
 
929
 
4.03
 
1.10
 
11
 
20
 
9.89
 
5.30
 
369
 
382
 
8.58
 
0.10
 
Peru
1 683
 
1 982
 
5.17
 
1.50
 
49
 
97
 
11.50
 
3.82
 
2
 
3
 
-3.47
 
0.03
 
Uruguay
707
 
678
 
1.08
 
-1.01
 
48
 
62
 
15.97
 
1.73
 
350
 
301
 
-0.35
 
-2.86
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
126 117
 
144 934
 
2.62
 
1.42
 
12 598
 
15 858
 
7.45
 
1.72
 
4 263
 
4 500
 
9.81
 
1.40
 
Bangladesh
639
 
785
 
1.80
 
2.16
 
1
 
7
 
8.83
 
19.62
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-7.51
 
China 2
84 398
 
95 823
 
2.44
 
1.34
 
2 465
 
2 690
 
13.06
 
-0.44
 
609
 
597
 
1.32
 
1.59
 
India
6 413
 
8 141
 
2.00
 
2.11
 
1
 
0
 
-40.34
 
40.71
 
1 785
 
1 972
 
15.04
 
1.82
 
Indonesia
3 348
 
4 032
 
4.63
 
1.78
 
92
 
195
 
1.63
 
6.70
 
0
 
0
 
-68.08
 
-5.77
 
Iran
2 675
 
3 003
 
2.20
 
1.29
 
127
 
201
 
-3.28
 
3.31
 
81
 
10
 
17.43
 
-21.29
 
Korea
2 375
 
2 520
 
3.41
 
0.49
 
1 100
 
1 366
 
4.13
 
1.30
 
38
 
40
 
8.39
 
-0.65
 
Malaysia
1 672
 
1 930
 
3.59
 
1.42
 
325
 
435
 
6.77
 
1.93
 
69
 
55
 
11.00
 
-2.05
 
Pakistan
3 143
 
3 907
 
3.86
 
2.06
 
28
 
50
 
17.71
 
3.65
 
66
 
23
 
15.33
 
-8.29
 
Philippines
3 194
 
3 614
 
2.06
 
1.09
 
433
 
856
 
8.29
 
5.64
 
13
 
9
 
2.27
 
-0.70
 
Saudi Arabia
727
 
886
 
2.79
 
1.95
 
1 145
 
1 453
 
7.15
 
1.58
 
93
 
91
 
32.23
 
-0.88
 
Thailand
2 975
 
3 330
 
2.80
 
1.04
 
35
 
33
 
24.06
 
1.01
 
930
 
1 207
 
6.78
 
2.42
 
Turkey
3 213
 
3 580
 
7.86
 
1.22
 
13
 
11
 
23.07
 
0.24
 
388
 
323
 
24.38
 
1.94
 
Viet Nam
4 369
 
5 089
 
2.50
 
1.53
 
1 830
 
2 603
 
21.93
 
2.99
 
26
 
26
 
1.80
 
-1.95
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
10 179
 
12 768
 
2.70
 
2.40
 
1 396
 
1 812
 
6.74
 
3.83
 
28
 
46
 
4.89
 
5.61
 
OECD 3
117 047
 
126 952
 
0.88
 
0.60
 
10 399
 
11 384
 
2.19
 
0.58
 
16 929
 
18 771
 
3.45
 
1.11
 
BRICS
129 576
 
147 982
 
2.47
 
1.29
 
4 444
 
4 495
 
1.18
 
-0.62
 
9 026
 
10 683
 
3.18
 
1.77
 
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Gross indigenous production.
5.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
6.
Excludes trade of live animals.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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