1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.16.2 - Meat projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.16.2Meat projections: Consumption, food
A.16.2Meat projections: Consumption, food
  Calendar year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt cwe)
Growth (%) 4
FOOD (kg rwe/cap) 5
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
311 966
 
352 685
 
1.80
 
1.09
 
34.1
 
34.6
 
0.68
 
0.11
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
115 907
 
124 512
 
0.52
 
0.47
 
66.4
 
69.3
 
0.21
 
0.22
 
NORTH AMERICA
41 103
 
45 988
 
0.14
 
0.72
 
92.1
 
95.3
 
-0.58
 
0.03
 
Canada
3 095
 
3 455
 
-0.15
 
0.91
 
69.1
 
70.6
 
-1.08
 
0.13
 
United States
38 008
 
42 533
 
0.17
 
0.71
 
94.6
 
98.1
 
-0.53
 
0.02
 
EUROPE
58 622
 
60 694
 
0.51
 
0.19
 
63.5
 
66.1
 
0.52
 
0.23
 
European Union
43 062
 
43 999
 
0.18
 
0.04
 
68.1
 
69.2
 
0.10
 
-0.01
 
Russia
10 496
 
11 285
 
1.78
 
0.54
 
59.2
 
64.8
 
2.00
 
0.73
 
Ukraine
2 262
 
2 493
 
0.40
 
1.12
 
41.3
 
48.5
 
0.98
 
1.71
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
3 136
 
3 651
 
1.72
 
1.16
 
89.1
 
92.0
 
0.32
 
0.07
 
Australia
2 748
 
3 203
 
2.17
 
1.19
 
92.7
 
95.3
 
0.63
 
0.06
 
New Zealand
388
 
448
 
-1.09
 
0.91
 
69.7
 
73.9
 
-1.75
 
0.10
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
13 047
 
14 180
 
1.59
 
0.70
 
38.3
 
39.9
 
1.01
 
0.36
 
Japan
5 662
 
5 704
 
0.88
 
-0.11
 
35.7
 
37.3
 
1.01
 
0.22
 
Kazakhstan
993
 
1 144
 
-0.22
 
1.63
 
44.6
 
46.2
 
-1.42
 
0.74
 
South Africa
3 230
 
3 658
 
2.12
 
1.00
 
49.0
 
51.5
 
1.13
 
0.36
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
196 059
 
228 172
 
2.63
 
1.45
 
26.5
 
27.2
 
1.28
 
0.30
 
AFRICA
15 126
 
19 018
 
2.76
 
2.40
 
10.7
 
10.3
 
0.16
 
-0.03
 
NORTH AFRICA
4 897
 
6 007
 
3.16
 
1.92
 
21.8
 
22.7
 
1.39
 
0.51
 
Algeria
835
 
1 014
 
3.05
 
1.95
 
17.5
 
18.2
 
1.23
 
0.56
 
Egypt
2 329
 
2 795
 
2.40
 
1.61
 
20.0
 
19.9
 
0.29
 
-0.03
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
10 229
 
13 011
 
2.57
 
2.63
 
8.6
 
8.2
 
-0.18
 
0.01
 
Ethiopia
563
 
784
 
-0.21
 
3.77
 
4.3
 
4.7
 
-2.62
 
1.39
 
Ghana
294
 
424
 
4.44
 
3.30
 
9.1
 
10.6
 
2.19
 
1.31
 
Mozambique
252
 
381
 
5.15
 
4.17
 
7.2
 
8.2
 
2.18
 
1.48
 
Nigeria
1 361
 
1 749
 
1.67
 
2.43
 
6.0
 
5.9
 
-1.19
 
-0.02
 
Tanzania
484
 
704
 
2.12
 
3.56
 
6.9
 
7.3
 
-0.97
 
0.61
 
Zambia
302
 
441
 
10.52
 
3.87
 
13.9
 
14.5
 
6.76
 
0.82
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
46 091
 
52 416
 
2.09
 
1.09
 
58.5
 
60.3
 
1.04
 
0.22
 
Argentina
4 788
 
5 274
 
1.37
 
0.42
 
85.7
 
86.1
 
0.58
 
-0.38
 
Brazil
20 050
 
22 525
 
1.96
 
0.86
 
76.8
 
79.9
 
1.07
 
0.19
 
Chile
1 540
 
1 795
 
2.66
 
1.03
 
68.8
 
72.8
 
1.57
 
0.16
 
Colombia
2 607
 
2 963
 
4.02
 
1.26
 
43.8
 
46.4
 
3.13
 
0.63
 
Mexico
7 346
 
8 776
 
2.06
 
1.56
 
47.1
 
50.0
 
0.73
 
0.49
 
Paraguay
458
 
567
 
1.36
 
1.96
 
51.7
 
56.2
 
0.13
 
0.78
 
Peru
1 730
 
2 076
 
5.33
 
1.59
 
46.9
 
49.8
 
4.07
 
0.48
 
Uruguay
358
 
398
 
2.93
 
0.88
 
78.7
 
84.7
 
2.56
 
0.55
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
134 841
 
156 739
 
2.81
 
1.46
 
26.0
 
27.6
 
1.71
 
0.66
 
Bangladesh
640
 
792
 
1.81
 
2.25
 
3.3
 
3.6
 
0.69
 
1.31
 
China 2
86 197
 
97 843
 
2.69
 
1.30
 
50.1
 
55.4
 
2.15
 
1.09
 
India
4 630
 
6 170
 
-0.84
 
2.20
 
3.0
 
3.5
 
-1.57
 
1.18
 
Indonesia
3 501
 
4 322
 
4.16
 
2.00
 
11.2
 
12.4
 
2.84
 
1.02
 
Iran
2 705
 
3 185
 
1.70
 
1.70
 
29.3
 
31.4
 
0.59
 
0.92
 
Korea
3 480
 
3 845
 
3.57
 
0.78
 
54.7
 
58.4
 
3.07
 
0.49
 
Malaysia
1 942
 
2 323
 
3.85
 
1.61
 
54.2
 
56.6
 
2.25
 
0.40
 
Pakistan
3 099
 
3 927
 
3.76
 
2.18
 
12.8
 
13.3
 
1.70
 
0.41
 
Philippines
3 618
 
4 464
 
2.59
 
1.83
 
29.0
 
30.8
 
1.17
 
0.45
 
Saudi Arabia
1 918
 
2 405
 
4.84
 
1.80
 
52.4
 
55.7
 
2.45
 
0.34
 
Thailand
1 918
 
2 002
 
0.96
 
0.47
 
23.0
 
23.7
 
0.72
 
0.41
 
Turkey
2 860
 
3 292
 
6.75
 
1.15
 
29.9
 
31.6
 
4.74
 
0.48
 
Viet Nam
6 185
 
7 678
 
5.92
 
2.01
 
52.0
 
59.0
 
4.71
 
1.23
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
11 402
 
14 472
 
3.08
 
2.60
 
9.6
 
9.5
 
0.76
 
0.36
 
OECD 3
109 923
 
118 992
 
0.64
 
0.52
 
67.1
 
69.5
 
0.13
 
0.13
 
BRICS
124 602
 
141 480
 
2.33
 
1.19
 
32.3
 
34.3
 
1.50
 
0.60
 
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 September New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
5.
Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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