1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.13 - Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.13Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets
A.13Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Export tax
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean
%
32.3
 
27.0
 
21.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
18.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Other oilseeds
%
22.3
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Soybean meal
%
29.7
 
24.0
 
18.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Soybean oil
%
29.7
 
24.0
 
18.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
AUSTRALIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariffs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean oil
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Rapeseed oil
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariffs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rapeseed oil
%
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
EUROPEAN UNION 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Oilseeds
mln EUR
127
 
20
 
21
 
22
 
23
 
23
 
23
 
23
 
23
 
23
 
23
 
Tariffs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean oil
%
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
Rapeseed oil
%
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
New output payments
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean
JPY/kg
196.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
197.2
 
Tariffs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean oil
JPY/kg
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
Rapeseed oil
JPY/kg
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
10.9
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean tariff-quota
kt
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
1 032
 
In-quota tariff
%
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
487
 
Soybean (for food) mark up
'000 KRW/t
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
131
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariffs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean
%
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
33
 
Soybean meal
%
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
Soybean oil
%
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
45
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ARC participation rate
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean
%
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
Soybean loan rate
USD/t
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
183.7
 
Tariffs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rapeseed
%
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
Soybean meal
%
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Rapeseed meal
%
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Soybean oil
%
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
Rapeseed oil
%
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
CHINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariffs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean
%
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Soybean meal
%
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
Soybean oil in-quota tariff
%
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
Vegetable oil tariff-quota
kt
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
7 998.1
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Rapeseed tariff
%
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
Soybean meal tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Soybean oil tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it accounts for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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