1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.21 - Main policy assumptions for meat markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.21Main policy assumptions for meat markets
A.21Main policy assumptions for meat markets
  
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef export tax
%
10.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt pw
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
76.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
Poultry meat tariff-quota
kt pw
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
45.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
196.6
 
EUROPEAN UNION 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef and veal 2
mln EUR
1 687
 
1 694
 
1 694
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
1 693
 
Sheep and goat meat 3
mln EUR
320
 
484
 
487
 
491
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
496
 
Beef basic price 4
EUR/kg dw
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Beef buy-in price 4,5
EUR/kg dw
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt cwe
327.8
 
341.4
 
350.6
 
359.8
 
369.0
 
378.3
 
387.5
 
389.0
 
390.6
 
392.2
 
392.7
 
Pig tariff-quota
kt cwe
162.4
 
176.7
 
190.1
 
203.5
 
216.9
 
230.3
 
245.7
 
246.6
 
247.5
 
248.4
 
249.3
 
Poultry tariff-quota
kt rtc
1 006.2
 
1 011.5
 
1 014.7
 
1 017.9
 
1 021.1
 
1 024.3
 
1 026.3
 
1 028.4
 
1 030.5
 
1 032.5
 
1 034.6
 
Sheep meat tariff-quota
kt cwe
294.2
 
295.1
 
295.6
 
296.1
 
296.3
 
296.5
 
296.7
 
296.9
 
297.1
 
297.1
 
297.1
 
JAPAN 6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef stabilisation prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Upper price
JPY/kg dw
1 128.3
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
1 155.0
 
Lower price
JPY/kg dw
868.3
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
890.0
 
Beef tariff
%
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
38.5
 
Pigmeat stabilisation prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Upper price
JPY/kg dw
586.7
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
595.0
 
Lower price
JPY/kg dw
436.7
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
440.0
 
Pig meat import system
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff
%
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
Standard import price
JPY/kg dw
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
409.9
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Beef mark-up
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Pigmeat tariff
%
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
23.8
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pigmeat tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Pigmeat NAFTA tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Poultry meat tariff-quota
kt pw
100.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
125.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
75.0
 
RUSSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt pw
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
570.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
50.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
Pigmeat tariff-quota
kt pw
430.0
 
430.0
 
430.0
 
430.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
Poultry tariff-quota
kt pw
364.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
354.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff-quota
kt pw
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
696.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
26.4
 
CHINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff
%
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
15.5
 
Pigmeat tariff
%
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
16.0
 
Sheep meat tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
19.1
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef tariff
%
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
Pigmeat tariff
%
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
100.0
 
Sheep meat tariff
%
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
Poultry meat tariff
%
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
Eggs tariff
%
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
SOUTH AFRICA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sheep meat tariff-quota
kt pw
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
2.
Implemented in 24 Member States.
3.
Implemented in 22 Member States.
4.
Price for R3 grade male cattle.
5.
Safety-net trigger.
6.
Year beginning 1 April.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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