OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
A.21 | Main policy assumptions for meat markets | ||||||||||||
A.21 | Main policy assumptions for meat markets | ||||||||||||
| | | Average 2014-16est | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| ARGENTINA | ||||||||||||
| Beef export tax | % | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CANADA | ||||||||||||
| Beef tariff-quota | kt pw | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76.4 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 |
| Poultry meat tariff-quota | kt pw | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 | 45.4 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 | 196.6 |
| EUROPEAN UNION 1 | ||||||||||||
| Voluntary coupled support | ||||||||||||
| Beef and veal 2 | mln EUR | 1 687 | 1 694 | 1 694 | 1 693 | 1 693 | 1 693 | 1 693 | 1 693 | 1 693 | 1 693 | 1 693 |
| Sheep and goat meat 3 | mln EUR | 320 | 484 | 487 | 491 | 496 | 496 | 496 | 496 | 496 | 496 | 496 |
| Beef basic price 4 | EUR/kg dw | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| EUR/kg dw | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
| Beef tariff-quota | kt cwe | 327.8 | 341.4 | 350.6 | 359.8 | 369.0 | 378.3 | 387.5 | 389.0 | 390.6 | 392.2 | 392.7 |
| Pig tariff-quota | kt cwe | 162.4 | 176.7 | 190.1 | 203.5 | 216.9 | 230.3 | 245.7 | 246.6 | 247.5 | 248.4 | 249.3 |
| Poultry tariff-quota | kt rtc | 1 006.2 | 1 011.5 | 1 014.7 | 1 017.9 | 1 021.1 | 1 024.3 | 1 026.3 | 1 028.4 | 1 030.5 | 1 032.5 | 1 034.6 |
| Sheep meat tariff-quota | kt cwe | 294.2 | 295.1 | 295.6 | 296.1 | 296.3 | 296.5 | 296.7 | 296.9 | 297.1 | 297.1 | 297.1 |
| JAPAN 6 | ||||||||||||
| Beef stabilisation prices | ||||||||||||
| Upper price | JPY/kg dw | 1 128.3 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 | 1 155.0 |
| Lower price | JPY/kg dw | 868.3 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 | 890.0 |
| Beef tariff | % | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 |
| Pigmeat stabilisation prices | ||||||||||||
| Upper price | JPY/kg dw | 586.7 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 |
| Lower price | JPY/kg dw | 436.7 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 |
| Pig meat import system | ||||||||||||
| Tariff | % | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Standard import price | JPY/kg dw | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 | 409.9 |
| Poultry meat tariff | % | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| KOREA | ||||||||||||
| Beef tariff | % | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Beef mark-up | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pigmeat tariff | % | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 23.8 |
| Poultry meat tariff | % | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| MEXICO | ||||||||||||
| Pigmeat tariff | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pigmeat NAFTA tariff | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Poultry meat tariff-quota | kt pw | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 125.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| RUSSIA | ||||||||||||
| Beef tariff-quota | kt pw | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 50.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| Pigmeat tariff-quota | kt pw | 430.0 | 430.0 | 430.0 | 430.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Poultry tariff-quota | kt pw | 364.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 |
| UNITED STATES | ||||||||||||
| Beef tariff-quota | kt pw | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 | 696.6 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 |
| CHINA | ||||||||||||
| Beef tariff | % | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| Pigmeat tariff | % | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| Sheep meat tariff | % | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Poultry meat tariff | % | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 |
| INDIA | ||||||||||||
| Beef tariff | % | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Pigmeat tariff | % | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Sheep meat tariff | % | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 | 91.9 |
| Poultry meat tariff | % | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 |
| Eggs tariff | % | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| SOUTH AFRICA | ||||||||||||
| Sheep meat tariff-quota | kt pw | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 |
Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%). | |||||||||||||
Implemented in 24 Member States. | |||||||||||||
Implemented in 22 Member States. | |||||||||||||
Price for R3 grade male cattle. | |||||||||||||
Safety-net trigger. | |||||||||||||
Year beginning 1 April. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |