1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.33 - Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.33Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
A.33Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
‌‌
‌‌
‌2016est‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Export tax
%
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
BRAZIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Incorporation mandate 2
%
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
BRL/hl
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Import tariff
%
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
CAD/hl
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
Import tariff
CAD/hl
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Incorporation mandate 2
%
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
3.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
CAD/hl
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
Incorporation mandate 2
%
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
6.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
COLOMBIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Blending target 1,4
%
90.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biofuel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Energy share in fuel consumption 5
%
5.6
 
5.9
 
6.1
 
6.3
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
EUR/hl
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
33.9
 
Import tariff
EUR/hl
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 3
EUR/hl
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
11.9
 
Import tariff
%
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
5.5
 
6.4
 
7.3
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
INDONESIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
MALAYSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
PERU
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Blending target 1
%
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
THAILAND
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Blending target 1
%
10.4
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 1
%
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Renewable Fuel Standard 6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
mln L
68 554
 
72 983
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
73 550
 
advanced mandate
mln L
13 665
 
16 202
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
16 769
 
cellulosic ethanol
mln L
871
 
1 177
 
1 308
 
1 660
 
1 986
 
2 255
 
2 512
 
2 800
 
3 116
 
3 386
 
3 663
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import surcharge
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Import tariff (undenatured)
%
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
Import tariff (denatured)
%
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
Blender tax credit
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
Blender tax credit
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Note: 2016est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
For many countries, shares for ethanol and biodiesel are not individually specified in the legislation.
Figures are based on a combination of the EU mandate in the context of the Renewable Energy Directive and the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) in the EU member states.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Expressed in volume share.
2.
Share in respective fuel type, energy equivalent.
3.
Difference between tax rates applying to fossil and biogen fuels.
4.
Applies to cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants.
5.
According to the current Renewable energy Directive 2009/28/EC, the energy content of biofuel other than first-generation biofuels counts twice towards meeting the target. It is assumed that other sources than biofuel will help filling the 10% transport energy target.
6.
The total, advanced and cellulosic mandates are not at the levels defined in EISA. As those mandates are subject to uncertainties regarding EPA implementation, the following assumptions were taken to construct the baseline: the maximum volume of ethanol being consumed in low blend.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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