1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table B.1 - Information on food price changes

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌B.1Information on food price changes
B.1Information on food price changes
  
‌‌
Total inflation % change
(year-on-year)
Food inflation % change
(year-on-year)
 2
Expenditure share of food
Food contribution to total change in inflation 3
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia 1
1.3
 
..
 
-0.9
 
..
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
-0.1
 
..
 
Austria
1.3
 
2.0
 
0.7
 
1.7
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
0.1
 
0.2
 
Belgium
1.7
 
2.6
 
1.8
 
2.2
 
17.4
 
17.4
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
Canada
2.0
 
2.1
 
4.6
 
-4.0
 
11.5
 
11.5
 
0.5
 
-0.5
 
Chile
4.8
 
2.8
 
4.3
 
2.4
 
18.9
 
18.9
 
0.8
 
0.5
 
Czech Republic
0.6
 
2.2
 
-2.0
 
3.5
 
17.0
 
17.0
 
-0.3
 
0.6
 
Denmark
0.6
 
0.9
 
-0.1
 
2.0
 
11.5
 
11.5
 
0.0
 
0.2
 
Estonia
-0.5
 
2.6
 
-0.9
 
3.7
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
-0.2
 
0.8
 
Finland
0.0
 
0.8
 
-2.3
 
-2.4
 
13.4
 
13.4
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
France
0.2
 
1.3
 
0.3
 
1.4
 
14.7
 
14.7
 
0.0
 
0.2
 
Germany
0.5
 
1.9
 
0.8
 
3.0
 
10.4
 
10.4
 
0.1
 
0.3
 
Greece
-0.7
 
1.2
 
1.6
 
1.1
 
17.1
 
17.1
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
Hungary
1.0
 
2.3
 
1.1
 
1.2
 
19.6
 
19.6
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Iceland
2.1
 
1.9
 
1.2
 
-0.6
 
14.9
 
14.9
 
0.2
 
-0.1
 
Ireland
0.1
 
0.3
 
-1.0
 
-2.4
 
11.7
 
11.7
 
-0.1
 
-0.3
 
Israel
-0.6
 
0.1
 
2.2
 
-1.6
 
14.3
 
14.3
 
0.3
 
-0.2
 
Italy
0.3
 
1.0
 
0.4
 
2.3
 
16.3
 
16.3
 
0.1
 
0.4
 
Japan
-0.1
 
0.4
 
1.8
 
2.2
 
19.0
 
19.0
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
Korea
0.6
 
2.0
 
1.0
 
5.3
 
14.4
 
14.4
 
0.2
 
0.8
 
Luxembourg
0.5
 
1.7
 
1.3
 
2.6
 
11.1
 
11.1
 
0.1
 
0.3
 
Mexico
2.6
 
4.7
 
3.8
 
3.2
 
18.9
 
18.9
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
Netherlands
0.6
 
1.7
 
1.3
 
1.5
 
11.3
 
11.3
 
0.1
 
0.2
 
New Zealand 1
0.4
 
..
 
-1.1
 
..
 
17.4
 
17.4
 
-0.2
 
..
 
Norway
2.9
 
2.8
 
1.7
 
2.0
 
13.3
 
13.3
 
0.2
 
0.3
 
Poland
-1.0
 
1.8
 
0.2
 
3.3
 
24.1
 
24.1
 
0.1
 
0.8
 
Portugal
0.8
 
1.3
 
0.2
 
1.3
 
18.1
 
18.1
 
0.0
 
0.2
 
Slovak Republic
-0.6
 
0.7
 
-2.3
 
1.5
 
18.4
 
18.4
 
-0.4
 
0.3
 
Slovenia
-0.5
 
1.3
 
0.5
 
2.8
 
17.0
 
17.0
 
0.1
 
0.5
 
Spain
-0.3
 
3.0
 
2.1
 
1.0
 
18.2
 
18.2
 
0.4
 
0.2
 
Sweden
0.8
 
1.4
 
2.2
 
1.7
 
13.9
 
13.9
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
Switzerland
-1.3
 
0.3
 
-1.4
 
0.9
 
10.8
 
10.8
 
-0.2
 
0.1
 
Turkey
9.6
 
9.2
 
11.7
 
7.8
 
26.8
 
26.8
 
3.1
 
2.1
 
United Kingdom
0.3
 
1.8
 
-2.6
 
-0.5
 
11.8
 
11.8
 
-0.3
 
-0.1
 
United States
1.4
 
2.5
 
-0.5
 
-1.9
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
OECD Total
1.2
 
2.3
 
0.7
 
0.4
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Enhanced Engagement
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Brazil
10.7
 
5.4
 
12.9
 
5.1
 
22.5
 
22.5
 
2.9
 
1.2
 
China
1.8
 
2.5
 
3.6
 
2.5
 
33.6
 
33.6
 
1.2
 
0.8
 
India
4.1
 
1.9
 
6.6
 
..
 
35.4
 
35.4
 
2.3
 
..
 
Indonesia
5.9
 
3.5
 
6.6
 
4.1
 
19.6
 
19.6
 
1.3
 
0.8
 
Russia
9.8
 
5.0
 
9.2
 
3.9
 
32.8
 
32.8
 
3.0
 
1.3
 
South Africa
6.2
 
6.8
 
7.4
 
12.5
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
1.3
 
2.3
 
Non OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Algeria
5.0
 
8.2
 
2.0
 
8.0
 
43.8
 
43.8
 
0.9
 
3.5
 
Bangladesh
6.1
 
5.2
 
4.3
 
6.5
 
28.6
 
28.6
 
1.2
 
1.9
 
Bolivia
2.4
 
3.7
 
3.2
 
5.8
 
39.3
 
39.3
 
1.3
 
2.3
 
Botswana
2.7
 
3.4
 
1.2
 
4.2
 
23.7
 
23.7
 
0.3
 
1.0
 
Bulgaria
0.0
 
0.4
 
0.5
 
3.6
 
37.2
 
37.2
 
0.2
 
1.3
 
Colombia
7.5
 
5.5
 
12.3
 
6.0
 
34.7
 
34.7
 
4.3
 
2.1
 
Costa Rica
-0.2
 
0.7
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
21.4
 
21.4
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Dominican Republic
2.5
 
2.3
 
7.1
 
-2.0
 
29.2
 
29.2
 
2.1
 
-0.6
 
Ecuador
3.1
 
0.9
 
3.4
 
1.5
 
23.0
 
23.0
 
0.8
 
0.3
 
Egypt
10.1
 
28.1
 
13.1
 
37.1
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
3.4
 
9.8
 
El Salvador
-0.8
 
0.3
 
0.0
 
-3.4
 
26.0
 
26.0
 
0.0
 
-0.9
 
Ethiopia
10.2
 
6.9
 
12.4
 
6.0
 
57.0
 
57.0
 
7.1
 
3.4
 
Ghana
19.0
 
13.0
 
8.2
 
16.6
 
37.0
 
37.0
 
3.0
 
6.1
 
Guatelama
2.3
 
3.8
 
11.8
 
5.6
 
28.6
 
28.6
 
3.4
 
1.6
 
Haiti
13.3
 
14.1
 
15.2
 
13.9
 
50.4
 
50.4
 
7.7
 
7.0
 
Honduras
3.1
 
3.4
 
2.3
 
-1.4
 
31.8
 
31.8
 
0.7
 
-0.4
 
Iraq
-0.9
 
-0.8
 
-1.6
 
-3.3
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
-0.6
 
-1.2
 
Jordan
-1.1
 
2.5
 
-2.2
 
-1.4
 
35.2
 
35.2
 
-0.8
 
-0.5
 
Kenya
7.8
 
7.0
 
12.7
 
12.5
 
36.0
 
36.0
 
4.6
 
4.5
 
Madagascar
8.3
 
6.9
 
8.8
 
5.6
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
5.3
 
3.4
 
Malawi
23.5
 
18.1
 
28.4
 
21.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
14.2
 
10.5
 
Malaysia
3.5
 
3.2
 
3.9
 
4.0
 
56.3
 
56.3
 
2.2
 
2.3
 
Moldavia
13.4
 
3.0
 
14.6
 
3.8
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
8.8
 
2.3
 
Morocco
0.3
 
2.1
 
-0.2
 
2.8
 
40.4
 
40.4
 
-0.1
 
1.1
 
New Caledonia
0.8
 
0.9
 
1.6
 
2.8
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
0.3
 
0.6
 
Nicaragua
3.2
 
3.8
 
0.6
 
0.0
 
26.1
 
26.1
 
0.2
 
0.0
 
Niger
1.6
 
0.4
 
1.7
 
-2.9
 
29.0
 
29.0
 
0.5
 
-0.8
 
Nigeria
9.6
 
18.7
 
10.6
 
17.8
 
51.8
 
51.8
 
5.5
 
9.2
 
Pakistan
2.5
 
3.7
 
1.4
 
2.6
 
45.5
 
45.5
 
0.6
 
1.2
 
Panama
1.1
 
0.6
 
2.4
 
0.4
 
33.6
 
33.6
 
0.8
 
0.1
 
Paraguay
2.6
 
1.9
 
7.5
 
2.6
 
39.1
 
39.1
 
2.9
 
1.0
 
Peru
4.3
 
3.1
 
5.4
 
4.1
 
25.0
 
25.0
 
1.4
 
1.0
 
Philippines
1.3
 
2.7
 
1.9
 
3.4
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
0.7
 
1.3
 
Romania
-2.1
 
0.1
 
-6.3
 
1.1
 
37.4
 
37.4
 
-2.4
 
0.4
 
Rwanda
4.5
 
17.4
 
8.6
 
16.2
 
48.4
 
48.4
 
4.2
 
7.8
 
Senegal
0.9
 
1.6
 
1.2
 
5.6
 
53.4
 
53.4
 
0.6
 
3.0
 
Singapore
-0.7
 
0.6
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
8.5
 
8.5
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Sri Lanka
0.3
 
5.5
 
-0.2
 
4.5
 
41.0
 
41.0
 
-0.1
 
1.8
 
Chinese Taipei
1.8
 
2.2
 
4.1
 
3.0
 
16.6
 
16.6
 
0.7
 
0.5
 
Tanzania
6.5
 
5.2
 
10.7
 
7.6
 
33.6
 
33.6
 
3.6
 
2.6
 
Thailand
0.0
 
2.2
 
0.0
 
2.4
 
33.0
 
33.0
 
0.0
 
0.8
 
Tunisia
3.3
 
4.6
 
1.1
 
4.7
 
33.8
 
33.8
 
0.4
 
1.6
 
Uganda
7.6
 
5.9
 
12.3
 
14.5
 
27.2
 
27.2
 
3.3
 
3.9
 
Uruguay
9.7
 
8.3
 
8.3
 
6.3
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
1.6
 
1.2
 
Zambia
21.8
 
7.0
 
25.9
 
..
 
52.5
 
52.5
 
13.6
 
..
 
..
Not available
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No data available for January 2017 in Australia and New Zealand.
2.
CPI food: definition based on national sources.
3.
Contribution is food inflation multiplied by expenditure share, expressed in %.
Source: OECD and national sources.

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