OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
From Chapter:
Statistical Annex
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
| B.1 | Information on food price changes | ||||||||
| B.1 | Information on food price changes | ||||||||
| | | Total inflation % change (year-on-year) | Food inflation % change (year-on-year) 2 | Expenditure share of food | Food contribution to total change in inflation 3 | ||||
2016 | 2017 | 2016 | 2017 | 2016 | 2017 | 2016 | 2017 | ||
| | OECD | ||||||||
| | Australia 1 | 1.3 | .. | -0.9 | .. | 12.8 | 12.8 | -0.1 | .. |
| | Austria | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| | Belgium | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| | Canada | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.6 | -4.0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| | Chile | 4.8 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| | Czech Republic | 0.6 | 2.2 | -2.0 | 3.5 | 17.0 | 17.0 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| | Denmark | 0.6 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| | Estonia | -0.5 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 3.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| | Finland | 0.0 | 0.8 | -2.3 | -2.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| | France | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| | Germany | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| | Greece | -0.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| | Hungary | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| | Iceland | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| | Ireland | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.0 | -2.4 | 11.7 | 11.7 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| | Israel | -0.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | -1.6 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| | Italy | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| | Japan | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| | Korea | 0.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| | Luxembourg | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| | Mexico | 2.6 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| | Netherlands | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| | New Zealand 1 | 0.4 | .. | -1.1 | .. | 17.4 | 17.4 | -0.2 | .. |
| | Norway | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| | Poland | -1.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 24.1 | 24.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| | Portugal | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| | Slovak Republic | -0.6 | 0.7 | -2.3 | 1.5 | 18.4 | 18.4 | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| | Slovenia | -0.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| | Spain | -0.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| | Sweden | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| | Switzerland | -1.3 | 0.3 | -1.4 | 0.9 | 10.8 | 10.8 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| | Turkey | 9.6 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| | United Kingdom | 0.3 | 1.8 | -2.6 | -0.5 | 11.8 | 11.8 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| | United States | 1.4 | 2.5 | -0.5 | -1.9 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| | OECD Total | 1.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | .. | .. | .. | .. |
| | Enhanced Engagement | ||||||||
| | Brazil | 10.7 | 5.4 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| | China | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| | India | 4.1 | 1.9 | 6.6 | .. | 35.4 | 35.4 | 2.3 | .. |
| | Indonesia | 5.9 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| | Russia | 9.8 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 32.8 | 32.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| | South Africa | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 12.5 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| | Non OECD | ||||||||
| | Algeria | 5.0 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 0.9 | 3.5 |
| | Bangladesh | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| | Bolivia | 2.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 39.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| | Botswana | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| | Bulgaria | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 37.2 | 37.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| | Colombia | 7.5 | 5.5 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| | Costa Rica | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| | Dominican Republic | 2.5 | 2.3 | 7.1 | -2.0 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 2.1 | -0.6 |
| | Ecuador | 3.1 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| | Egypt | 10.1 | 28.1 | 13.1 | 37.1 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 3.4 | 9.8 |
| | El Salvador | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -3.4 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | -0.9 |
| | Ethiopia | 10.2 | 6.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 57.0 | 57.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 |
| | Ghana | 19.0 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 16.6 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 3.0 | 6.1 |
| | Guatelama | 2.3 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| | Haiti | 13.3 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 50.4 | 50.4 | 7.7 | 7.0 |
| | Honduras | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 0.7 | -0.4 |
| | Iraq | -0.9 | -0.8 | -1.6 | -3.3 | 35.0 | 35.0 | -0.6 | -1.2 |
| | Jordan | -1.1 | 2.5 | -2.2 | -1.4 | 35.2 | 35.2 | -0.8 | -0.5 |
| | Kenya | 7.8 | 7.0 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| | Madagascar | 8.3 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 5.3 | 3.4 |
| | Malawi | 23.5 | 18.1 | 28.4 | 21.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 14.2 | 10.5 |
| | Malaysia | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 56.3 | 56.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| | Moldavia | 13.4 | 3.0 | 14.6 | 3.8 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 8.8 | 2.3 |
| | Morocco | 0.3 | 2.1 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 40.4 | 40.4 | -0.1 | 1.1 |
| | New Caledonia | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| | Nicaragua | 3.2 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| | Niger | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 | -2.9 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| | Nigeria | 9.6 | 18.7 | 10.6 | 17.8 | 51.8 | 51.8 | 5.5 | 9.2 |
| | Pakistan | 2.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| | Panama | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| | Paraguay | 2.6 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 39.1 | 39.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| | Peru | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| | Philippines | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| | Romania | -2.1 | 0.1 | -6.3 | 1.1 | 37.4 | 37.4 | -2.4 | 0.4 |
| | Rwanda | 4.5 | 17.4 | 8.6 | 16.2 | 48.4 | 48.4 | 4.2 | 7.8 |
| | Senegal | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 53.4 | 53.4 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| | Singapore | -0.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| | Sri Lanka | 0.3 | 5.5 | -0.2 | 4.5 | 41.0 | 41.0 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| | Chinese Taipei | 1.8 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| | Tanzania | 6.5 | 5.2 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| | Thailand | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| | Tunisia | 3.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| | Uganda | 7.6 | 5.9 | 12.3 | 14.5 | 27.2 | 27.2 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| | Uruguay | 9.7 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| | Zambia | 21.8 | 7.0 | 25.9 | .. | 52.5 | 52.5 | 13.6 | .. |
Not available | |||||||||
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No data available for January 2017 in Australia and New Zealand. | |||||||||
CPI food: definition based on national sources. | |||||||||
Contribution is food inflation multiplied by expenditure share, expressed in %. | |||||||||
| Source: OECD and national sources. | |||||||||