OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
From Chapter:
Statistical Annex
Table A.26 - Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption
Also available in: French
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
| A.26 | Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption | ||||||||
| A.26 | Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption | ||||||||
| Calendar year | |||||||||
| | | PRODUCTION (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | FOOD CONSUMPTION (kg/cap) | Growth (%) 4 | ||||
Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | ||
| | WORLD | 402 708 | 507 766 | 1.93 | 2.13 | 54.7 | 61.6 | 0.70 | 1.13 |
| | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 133 494 | 136 178 | -0.23 | 0.24 | 94.8 | 93.2 | -0.72 | -0.03 |
| | NORTH AMERICA | 26 850 | 25 811 | -1.13 | -0.24 | 75.1 | 66.8 | -1.93 | -0.93 |
| | Canada | 2 930 | 3 180 | -0.79 | 0.78 | 81.5 | 80.8 | -1.84 | -0.01 |
| | United States | 23 920 | 22 630 | -1.17 | -0.37 | 74.3 | 65.2 | -1.94 | -1.06 |
| | EUROPE | 77 241 | 76 415 | -0.69 | -0.03 | 103.2 | 101.1 | -0.93 | -0.03 |
| | European Union | 46 710 | 46 142 | -0.03 | -0.20 | 90.6 | 87.1 | -0.40 | -0.33 |
| | Russia | 16 039 | 15 239 | -1.23 | -0.31 | 111.8 | 108.3 | -1.26 | -0.10 |
| | Ukraine | 7 792 | 8 446 | -0.87 | 1.55 | 173.8 | 200.7 | -0.49 | 2.15 |
| | OCEANIA DEVELOPED | 2 998 | 3 395 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 105.2 | 105.0 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
| | Australia | 2 550 | 2 897 | 1.50 | 1.08 | 106.4 | 105.8 | -0.15 | -0.09 |
| | New Zealand | 448 | 498 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 99.0 | 100.4 | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| | OTHER DEVELOPED 1 | 26 405 | 30 558 | 2.12 | 1.29 | 96.7 | 107.4 | 1.47 | 0.95 |
| | Japan | 4 237 | 4 278 | -1.36 | -0.03 | 33.5 | 35.0 | -1.28 | 0.31 |
| | Kazakhstan | 4 547 | 5 648 | -0.32 | 1.99 | 258.1 | 288.8 | -1.75 | 1.10 |
| | South Africa | 2 732 | 3 023 | 1.28 | 1.47 | 50.2 | 51.4 | 0.14 | 0.82 |
| | DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 269 214 | 371 588 | 3.15 | 2.92 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| | AFRICA | 32 896 | 44 943 | 1.79 | 3.16 | 29.1 | 30.4 | -0.84 | 0.70 |
| | NORTH AFRICA | 7 521 | 9 872 | 3.69 | 2.59 | 41.1 | 45.9 | 1.87 | 1.15 |
| | Algeria | 3 231 | 4 039 | 6.69 | 1.98 | 81.5 | 87.1 | 4.73 | 0.61 |
| | Egypt | 1 604 | 2 313 | -0.28 | 3.82 | 17.5 | 20.9 | -2.35 | 2.11 |
| | SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | 25 375 | 35 072 | 1.28 | 3.32 | 26.8 | 27.8 | -1.51 | 0.68 |
| | Ethiopia | 3 855 | 5 369 | 3.19 | 3.49 | 38.8 | 42.0 | 0.58 | 1.19 |
| | Ghana | 43 | 59 | 1.89 | 3.16 | 1.6 | 1.7 | -0.56 | 1.12 |
| | Mozambique | 80 | 108 | 0.91 | 3.01 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -1.88 | 0.34 |
| | Nigeria | 244 | 294 | 4.23 | 2.03 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.48 | -0.44 |
| | Tanzania | 1 384 | 1 934 | 3.17 | 3.16 | 25.9 | 26.1 | -0.05 | 0.17 |
| | Zambia | 75 | 92 | 0.28 | 1.96 | 4.6 | 4.1 | -2.71 | -1.03 |
| | LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN | 39 890 | 46 915 | 1.79 | 1.47 | 62.6 | 66.7 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| | Argentina | 1 550 | 1 651 | -0.45 | 0.57 | 28.2 | 27.9 | -2.33 | -0.40 |
| | Brazil | 15 720 | 18 556 | 4.91 | 1.47 | 75.7 | 82.8 | 3.94 | 0.79 |
| | Chile | 879 | 885 | -3.67 | 1.11 | 49.0 | 44.7 | -4.70 | 0.25 |
| | Colombia | 5 422 | 6 160 | -0.77 | 1.31 | 112.4 | 118.1 | -1.78 | 0.62 |
| | Mexico | 3 497 | 3 313 | -1.91 | -0.58 | 27.5 | 23.1 | -3.29 | -1.62 |
| | Paraguay | 524 | 633 | 2.45 | 1.75 | 78.9 | 83.9 | 1.09 | 0.59 |
| | Peru | 1 665 | 1 998 | 2.43 | 1.58 | 53.1 | 56.3 | 1.10 | 0.47 |
| | Uruguay | 575 | 682 | -3.54 | 0.60 | 167.7 | 191.6 | -3.87 | 0.27 |
| | ASIA and PACIFIC | 196 428 | 279 729 | 3.70 | 3.15 | 47.0 | 60.9 | 2.57 | 2.31 |
| | Bangladesh | 2 977 | 4 113 | 2.17 | 3.14 | 18.5 | 22.8 | 0.97 | 2.10 |
| | China 2 | 29 953 | 35 352 | -0.16 | 2.08 | 21.8 | 25.0 | -0.68 | 1.86 |
| | India | 101 626 | 157 779 | 4.90 | 3.71 | 77.5 | 106.9 | 3.54 | 2.62 |
| | Indonesia | 966 | 1 250 | 4.13 | 2.19 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.80 | 1.24 |
| | Iran | 1 830 | 2 385 | 0.98 | 2.50 | 23.1 | 27.4 | -0.26 | 1.68 |
| | Korea | 1 340 | 1 358 | -0.20 | 0.28 | 26.7 | 26.1 | -0.71 | -0.02 |
| | Malaysia | 86 | 100 | 4.28 | 1.44 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.67 | 0.23 |
| | Pakistan | 32 480 | 47 966 | 3.17 | 3.59 | 171.9 | 207.8 | 1.03 | 1.77 |
| | Philippines | 10 | 11 | -2.35 | 1.18 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3.86 | -0.22 |
| | Saudi Arabia | 1 080 | 1 227 | 6.29 | 1.44 | 34.2 | 32.9 | 3.82 | -0.02 |
| | Thailand | 1 225 | 1 520 | 7.15 | 1.48 | 18.0 | 22.2 | 6.81 | 1.43 |
| | Turkey | 15 112 | 16 991 | 8.31 | 0.86 | 192.2 | 198.9 | 6.62 | 0.20 |
| | Viet Nam | 527 | 749 | 8.98 | 3.08 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 7.80 | 2.23 |
| | LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 26 186 | 35 919 | 1.31 | 3.24 | 27.5 | 29.4 | -1.06 | 0.98 |
| | OECD 3 | 102 133 | 102 760 | 0.48 | 0.02 | 77.1 | 73.4 | -0.20 | -0.41 |
| | BRICS | 166 070 | 229 950 | 3.10 | 2.91 | 53.7 | 69.4 | 2.21 | 2.29 |
| Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||
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Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. | |||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate. | |||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||