1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.26 - Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.26Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption
A.26Fresh dairy products projections: Production and food consumption
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 4
FOOD CONSUMPTION (kg/cap)
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
402 708
 
507 766
 
1.93
 
2.13
 
54.7
 
61.6
 
0.70
 
1.13
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
133 494
 
136 178
 
-0.23
 
0.24
 
94.8
 
93.2
 
-0.72
 
-0.03
 
NORTH AMERICA
26 850
 
25 811
 
-1.13
 
-0.24
 
75.1
 
66.8
 
-1.93
 
-0.93
 
Canada
2 930
 
3 180
 
-0.79
 
0.78
 
81.5
 
80.8
 
-1.84
 
-0.01
 
United States
23 920
 
22 630
 
-1.17
 
-0.37
 
74.3
 
65.2
 
-1.94
 
-1.06
 
EUROPE
77 241
 
76 415
 
-0.69
 
-0.03
 
103.2
 
101.1
 
-0.93
 
-0.03
 
European Union
46 710
 
46 142
 
-0.03
 
-0.20
 
90.6
 
87.1
 
-0.40
 
-0.33
 
Russia
16 039
 
15 239
 
-1.23
 
-0.31
 
111.8
 
108.3
 
-1.26
 
-0.10
 
Ukraine
7 792
 
8 446
 
-0.87
 
1.55
 
173.8
 
200.7
 
-0.49
 
2.15
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
2 998
 
3 395
 
1.50
 
1.12
 
105.2
 
105.0
 
-0.01
 
0.00
 
Australia
2 550
 
2 897
 
1.50
 
1.08
 
106.4
 
105.8
 
-0.15
 
-0.09
 
New Zealand
448
 
498
 
1.52
 
1.37
 
99.0
 
100.4
 
0.72
 
0.54
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
26 405
 
30 558
 
2.12
 
1.29
 
96.7
 
107.4
 
1.47
 
0.95
 
Japan
4 237
 
4 278
 
-1.36
 
-0.03
 
33.5
 
35.0
 
-1.28
 
0.31
 
Kazakhstan
4 547
 
5 648
 
-0.32
 
1.99
 
258.1
 
288.8
 
-1.75
 
1.10
 
South Africa
2 732
 
3 023
 
1.28
 
1.47
 
50.2
 
51.4
 
0.14
 
0.82
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
269 214
 
371 588
 
3.15
 
2.92
 
45.2
 
54.8
 
1.75
 
1.75
 
AFRICA
32 896
 
44 943
 
1.79
 
3.16
 
29.1
 
30.4
 
-0.84
 
0.70
 
NORTH AFRICA
7 521
 
9 872
 
3.69
 
2.59
 
41.1
 
45.9
 
1.87
 
1.15
 
Algeria
3 231
 
4 039
 
6.69
 
1.98
 
81.5
 
87.1
 
4.73
 
0.61
 
Egypt
1 604
 
2 313
 
-0.28
 
3.82
 
17.5
 
20.9
 
-2.35
 
2.11
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
25 375
 
35 072
 
1.28
 
3.32
 
26.8
 
27.8
 
-1.51
 
0.68
 
Ethiopia
3 855
 
5 369
 
3.19
 
3.49
 
38.8
 
42.0
 
0.58
 
1.19
 
Ghana
43
 
59
 
1.89
 
3.16
 
1.6
 
1.7
 
-0.56
 
1.12
 
Mozambique
80
 
108
 
0.91
 
3.01
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
-1.88
 
0.34
 
Nigeria
244
 
294
 
4.23
 
2.03
 
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.48
 
-0.44
 
Tanzania
1 384
 
1 934
 
3.17
 
3.16
 
25.9
 
26.1
 
-0.05
 
0.17
 
Zambia
75
 
92
 
0.28
 
1.96
 
4.6
 
4.1
 
-2.71
 
-1.03
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
39 890
 
46 915
 
1.79
 
1.47
 
62.6
 
66.7
 
0.62
 
0.58
 
Argentina
1 550
 
1 651
 
-0.45
 
0.57
 
28.2
 
27.9
 
-2.33
 
-0.40
 
Brazil
15 720
 
18 556
 
4.91
 
1.47
 
75.7
 
82.8
 
3.94
 
0.79
 
Chile
879
 
885
 
-3.67
 
1.11
 
49.0
 
44.7
 
-4.70
 
0.25
 
Colombia
5 422
 
6 160
 
-0.77
 
1.31
 
112.4
 
118.1
 
-1.78
 
0.62
 
Mexico
3 497
 
3 313
 
-1.91
 
-0.58
 
27.5
 
23.1
 
-3.29
 
-1.62
 
Paraguay
524
 
633
 
2.45
 
1.75
 
78.9
 
83.9
 
1.09
 
0.59
 
Peru
1 665
 
1 998
 
2.43
 
1.58
 
53.1
 
56.3
 
1.10
 
0.47
 
Uruguay
575
 
682
 
-3.54
 
0.60
 
167.7
 
191.6
 
-3.87
 
0.27
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
196 428
 
279 729
 
3.70
 
3.15
 
47.0
 
60.9
 
2.57
 
2.31
 
Bangladesh
2 977
 
4 113
 
2.17
 
3.14
 
18.5
 
22.8
 
0.97
 
2.10
 
China 2
29 953
 
35 352
 
-0.16
 
2.08
 
21.8
 
25.0
 
-0.68
 
1.86
 
India
101 626
 
157 779
 
4.90
 
3.71
 
77.5
 
106.9
 
3.54
 
2.62
 
Indonesia
966
 
1 250
 
4.13
 
2.19
 
3.7
 
4.4
 
2.80
 
1.24
 
Iran
1 830
 
2 385
 
0.98
 
2.50
 
23.1
 
27.4
 
-0.26
 
1.68
 
Korea
1 340
 
1 358
 
-0.20
 
0.28
 
26.7
 
26.1
 
-0.71
 
-0.02
 
Malaysia
86
 
100
 
4.28
 
1.44
 
2.8
 
2.9
 
2.67
 
0.23
 
Pakistan
32 480
 
47 966
 
3.17
 
3.59
 
171.9
 
207.8
 
1.03
 
1.77
 
Philippines
10
 
11
 
-2.35
 
1.18
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
-3.86
 
-0.22
 
Saudi Arabia
1 080
 
1 227
 
6.29
 
1.44
 
34.2
 
32.9
 
3.82
 
-0.02
 
Thailand
1 225
 
1 520
 
7.15
 
1.48
 
18.0
 
22.2
 
6.81
 
1.43
 
Turkey
15 112
 
16 991
 
8.31
 
0.86
 
192.2
 
198.9
 
6.62
 
0.20
 
Viet Nam
527
 
749
 
8.98
 
3.08
 
5.6
 
7.3
 
7.80
 
2.23
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
26 186
 
35 919
 
1.31
 
3.24
 
27.5
 
29.4
 
-1.06
 
0.98
 
OECD 3
102 133
 
102 760
 
0.48
 
0.02
 
77.1
 
73.4
 
-0.20
 
-0.41
 
BRICS
166 070
 
229 950
 
3.10
 
2.91
 
53.7
 
69.4
 
2.21
 
2.29
 
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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