1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries (European Union as a region) and other key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina among others. This year's special feature focuses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This edition marks the twelfth year of partnership between the two organisations.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.29 - Main policy assumptions for dairy markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 - © OECD 2016

‌A.29Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
A.29Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2013-15est
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk target price 1
CADc/litre
75.0
 
76.9
 
79.0
 
81.3
 
82.9
 
84.0
 
85.0
 
86.2
 
87.3
 
88.5
 
89.6
 
Butter support price
CAD/t
7 401.1
 
7 750.0
 
7 827.5
 
7 905.8
 
7 984.8
 
8 064.7
 
8 145.3
 
8 226.8
 
8 309.0
 
8 392.1
 
8 476.0
 
SMP support price
CAD/t
6 400.4
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
4 417.6
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk and milk products 3
mln EUR
829
 
837
 
845
 
855
 
863
 
849
 
849
 
849
 
849
 
849
 
849
 
Milk quota
kt pw
100 297
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Butter reference price 4
EUR/t
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
SMP reference price
EUR/t
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
Butter tariff-quotas
kt pw
87.2
 
88.8
 
89.2
 
89.5
 
89.9
 
90.2
 
90.3
 
90.3
 
90.4
 
90.4
 
90.4
 
Cheese tariff-quotas
kt pw
117.8
 
118.6
 
118.9
 
119.2
 
119.5
 
119.9
 
120.2
 
120.5
 
120.8
 
121.2
 
121.2
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Direct payments
JPY/kg
12.7
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
Cheese tariff 5
%
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
In-quota tariff
%
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
SMP
kt pw
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
In-quota tariff
%
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
WMP
kt pw
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
SMP
kt pw
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
WMP
kt pw
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheese
kt pw
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
78.3
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
SMP
kt pw
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
61.0
 
50.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
Liconsa social program
mln MXN
1 114.3
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
1 128.1
 
Russia
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
16.1
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff-quota
kt pw
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
In-quota tariff
%
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
Cheese tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Skim milk powder tariff
%
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
Whole milk powder tariff
%
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
SOUTH AFRICA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
Skim milk powder tariff
%
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
Whole milk powder tariff
%
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
Note: Average 2013-15est: Data for 2015 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
For manufacturing milk.
2.
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
3.
Implemented in 19 Member States.
4.
Buying-in when market prices go below the reference price for SMP and 90% of the reference price for butter is operable automatically for a maximum quantity of 109 000 tonnes for SMP and 50 000 tonnes for butter (before 2014, this ceiling was set at 30 000 tonnes). Above that ceiling intervention can take place only via tender.
5.
Excludes processed cheese.
Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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