1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries (European Union as a region) and other key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina among others. This year's special feature focuses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This edition marks the twelfth year of partnership between the two organisations.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.8 - Main policy assumptions for cereal markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 - © OECD 2016

‌A.8Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
A.8Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2013-15est
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Crops export tax
%
21.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Rice export tax
%
5.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
kt
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
Barley
kt
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 3
mln EUR
86.9
 
89.1
 
90.7
 
90.0
 
89.3
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
Rice 4
mln EUR
56.7
 
56.4
 
56.1
 
55.9
 
55.7
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
Cereal reference price 5
EUR/t
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
Direct payments ceilings 6
bln EUR
41.6
 
41.5
 
41.5
 
41.6
 
41.6
 
42.2
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
Rice reference price 7
EUR/t
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
Wheat tariff-quota 1
kt
3 820.4
 
4 432.0
 
4 442.0
 
4 452.0
 
4 462.0
 
4 462.0
 
4 462.0
 
4 462.0
 
4 462.0
 
4 462.0
 
4 462.0
 
Coarse grain tariff-quota 1
kt
3 847.2
 
4 245.9
 
4 317.2
 
4 388.5
 
4 459.8
 
4 481.1
 
4 502.4
 
4 523.7
 
4 545.0
 
4 566.3
 
4 567.3
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
Rice quota 8
kt
395.1
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
In-quota tariff
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
MERCOSUR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Coarse grain tariff 9
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Rice tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Barley import tariff
%
68.3
 
15.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ARC participation rate
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
%
20.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Coarse grains
%
33.3
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
Wheat loan rate
USD/t
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
Maize loan rate
USD/t
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
CHINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
Coarse grains tariff
%
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Minimum support price
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rice
INR/t
13 600
 
14 626
 
15 237
 
15 838
 
16 454
 
17 067
 
17 717
 
18 393
 
19 098
 
19 862
 
20 579
 
Wheat
INR/t
14 583
 
15 037
 
15 636
 
16 455
 
17 359
 
18 290
 
19 256
 
20 284
 
21 350
 
22 470
 
23 489
 
Wheat tariff
%
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
51.0
 
Maize tariff
%
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
Rice tariff
%
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
Russia
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat ad valorem import tax
%
1.7
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Rice tariff equivalent of import barriers
%
13.3
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Coarse grains tariff equivalent of import barriers
%
2.8
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Coarse grain specific tariff
RUB/t
4.5
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Coarse grain ad valorem import tax
%
2.7
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2013-15est: Data for 2015 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Year beginning 1 July.
2.
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it accounts for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
3.
Mainly for durum wheat. Implemented in 6 Member States.
4.
Implemented in 6 Member States.
5.
Buying-in at the fixed reference price is operable automatically only for common wheat up to a maximum quantity of 3 million tons per marketing year. Above that ceiling and for durum wheat, maize and barley intervention can take place only via tender.
6.
Estimated net amounts for all direct payments based on Annex II of EU Regulation No 1307/2013, accounting for the transfers between direct aids and rural development envelopes.
7.
Intervention is set at zero tonnes per marketing year. However, the Commission may initiate intervention if market requires.
8.
Milled rice basis.
9.
Applied by Brazil only.
Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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