1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries (European Union as a region) and other key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina among others. This year's special feature focuses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This edition marks the twelfth year of partnership between the two organisations.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.33 - Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 - © OECD 2016

‌A.33Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
A.33Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
‌‌
‌‌
‌2015est‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Export tax
%
6.1
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
BRAZIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Incorporation mandate 1
%
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
BRL/hl
16.7
 
11.0
 
12.8
 
14.2
 
15.2
 
16.4
 
16.9
 
17.3
 
18.3
 
19.4
 
20.5
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
CAD/hl
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
Import tariff
CAD/hl
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Incorporation mandate 1
%
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
4.3
 
4.3
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
CAD/hl
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
8.7
 
8.7
 
8.7
 
8.7
 
8.7
 
Incorporation mandate 1
%
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
8.0
 
6.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
COLOMBIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Blending target 3,4
%
8.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 4
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biofuel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Energy share in fuel consumption 5
%
5.0
 
5.4
 
5.8
 
6.1
 
6.4
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
EUR/hl
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
Import tariff
EUR/hl
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
EUR/hl
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
Import tariff
%
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
INDONESIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Blending target 4
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 4
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
MALAYSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
30.3
 
Blending target 4
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 4
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
PERU
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
Blending target 4
%
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Blending target 4
%
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.2
 
2.5
 
2.8
 
3.1
 
3.5
 
3.9
 
4.4
 
4.9
 
5.0
 
THAILAND
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Blending target 4
%
9.3
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
Blending target 4
%
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Renewable Fuel Standard 6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
mln L
63 708
 
68 554
 
68 528
 
68 029
 
67 515
 
67 076
 
66 962
 
67 005
 
67 159
 
67 394
 
67 689
 
advanced mandate
mln L
10 523
 
13 665
 
14 400
 
14 856
 
15 088
 
15 303
 
15 571
 
15 878
 
16 216
 
16 579
 
16 964
 
cellulosic ethanol
mln L
466
 
871
 
879
 
888
 
897
 
906
 
915
 
924
 
933
 
943
 
952
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import surcharge
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Import tariff (undenatured)
%
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
Import tariff (denatured)
%
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
Blender tax credit
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariff
%
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
Blender tax credit
USD/hl
26.42
 
26.42
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
..
Not available
Note: 2015est: Data for 2015 are estimated.
For many countries, shares for ethanol and biodiesel are not individually specified in the legislation.
Figures are based on a combination of the EU mandate in the context of the Renewable Energy Directive and the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) in the EU member states.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Share in respective fuel type, energy equivalent.
2.
Difference between tax rates applying to fossil and biogen fuels.
3.
Applies to cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants.
4.
Expressed in volume share.
5.
According to the current Renewable energy Directive 2009/28/EC, the energy content of biofuel other than first-generation biofuels counts twice towards meeting the target. It is assumed that other sources than biofuel will help filling the 10% transport energy target.
6.
The total, advanced and cellulosic mandates are not at the levels defined in EISA. As those mandates are subject to uncertainties regarding EPA implementation, the following assumptions were taken to construct the baseline: the amount of ethanol being consumed in low blend mixes in the United States will not exceed the "blend wall" level of 10% and the development of the flex-fuel vehicle fleet will be limited.
Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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